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Pattern November 2023

Myfrotho704_ said:
GEFS the only model with a decent pacific. Not exactly a good look View attachment 137876View attachment 137877View attachment 137878
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With the PNA looking to stay mostly negative aside from a quick spike next weekend and the AO/NAO both staying positive, I don’t see any reason to think we’re in for anything more than just a quick cool shot every few days. The good news is that the ensembles are showing more in the way of consistent rain chances… so we could see some more wedge days like today and tomorrow in CAD areas. I didn’t post it but both the 8-14 and 3-4 temperature outlooks both are pointing to the mild December that most of us are expecting.
 
Models are not looking good for many of us. Slowly trending drier for the rest of the month. South of I-20 may be ok, but north of it not so much.
 
JHS said:
Models are not looking good for many of us. Slowly trending drier for the rest of the month. South of I-20 may be ok, but north of it not so much.
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Separate the west coast flow enough this week to bomb the base of the EC trough next weekend and you get coastal cyclogenisis and a decent rain event for much of FL, GA, Carolinas
 
The 12z GFS continues to show no love for many areas desperate for rain. Atlanta - Upstate - Charlotte would continue to suffer.

Day 10 total QPF:
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To be fair, the canadian and euro do show decent totals.
 
JHS said:
It's over for this week. The next chance on the Euro is 8 days away, and it's even farther out on the GFS. The drought goes on.
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This rain chance this week will help out a lot on the southern part of the southeast. Things should start to get better
 
Some interesting shifts last night, especially on the CMC ens, to the look the older GEFS runs had. GEFS also pretty different. AK ridge axis more neutrally tilted resulting in cold intrusion into the east. EPS still staying steady however with a poorly angled Alaskan ridge. Worth noting who ever gets the north side of the gradient associated with this type of pattern likely sees wintry E3A150B9-BA41-4C70-A09D-AFAE27DFF717.gifBF20B8CC-4174-4A35-9088-1666466A9575.gifB6597A0B-4935-4047-9D9D-C869EC2F5D42.png
 
This is 8 days out on the euro op from last night. This lakes cutter hopefully can drive some rain through here next Tuesday. It will also usher in Chilly air afterwards for the holiday weekend. Was hoping we could get some help from the Caribbean Gyros catching a front this upcoming weekend, but everything stays to far east for us.

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