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Pattern November 2023

86 to 55 here. Next week looking pretty normal so far which would be a change

Next timeframe I'm watching is around Thanksgiving. I've heard the epo goes negative which is usually a cold air signal here. We shall see
 
J.C. said:
Not looking good for Thanksgiving revenue at the southern ski resorts.
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It actually looks like they might have a fairly decent Thanksgiving this year. There’s going to be some cold enough nights to make snow early to mid next week. Then after the warm shot next weekend, another cool shot comes in and they should be able to make snow every night during the week of Thanksgiving through the weekend.
 
tennessee storm said:
Looking like we going get enjoy our turkey dinner out on the back patio this year … .
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Right now it looks like things cool off for Thanksgiving. The GEFS has temperatures just slightly below to average for the holiday… actually perfect for the backyard football games. Kinda following in line with the roller coaster the temps have been on the last couple of weeks.
 
Fairly solid rain in Blacksburg Va right now, definitely needed this. Just wish it wasn’t happening as I’m walking around campus
 
MB22 said:
Dropped from 50 to 41 in the last 90 minutes with rain in Winchester Va. Nearly 70 yesterday. It was 81 at IAD. They need the rain.
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GSP said in its morning discussion that there should be a 20-25F temperature spread from NE to SW across it’s forecast region my late this afternoon… nothing like a backdoor front.
 
Chazwin said:
Right now it looks like things cool off for Thanksgiving. The GEFS has temperatures just slightly below to average for the holiday… actually perfect for the backyard football games. Kinda following in line with the roller coaster the temps have been on the last couple of weeks.
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Don’t know , gets hasn’t been on its game as late
 
Chazwin said:
Right now it looks like things cool off for Thanksgiving. The GEFS has temperatures just slightly below to average for the holiday… actually perfect for the backyard football games. Kinda following in line with the roller coaster the temps have been on the last couple of weeks.
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I had hoped the ridge out west would respond like the 6z gefs and we would dump cold around Thanksgiving into the very early early part of December before a pretty dramatic flip to warm. Now with the eps and geps losing that ridge signal I think we are at the mercy of wave timing and transient wedging for Thanksgiving. I'd go 63/38 as an early call but the window of possibility for highs is probably 46-76
 
Chazwin said:
What??? The GEFS has been doing very good lately. It’s been consistent without big swings or big spreads, and it been fairly accurate in the 10-15 day
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Chazwin said:
What??? The GEFS has been doing very good lately. It’s been consistent without big swings or big spreads, and it been fairly accurate in the 10-15 day range.
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Had some flaws lately … like. Most
 
cyclogent said:
Had a nice drought busting deluge today with 0.03" of precip. Sigh.
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Yea, major bust on precip totals on our local forecast (Spann)....but the models were actually pretty good the last 24 hours at showing nothing more than heavy sprinkles
 
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