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Pattern November 2023

NCSNOW said:
Watch for a Rogue flake above 3000 ft tomorrow SW NC. Novelty as 540 cool pool washes out overhead passing by.

Then all eyes turn to next Tuesday through the end of the week. Find some SS energy and its not a stretch to score. All 3 Ops have cold air and the GFS has some energy cutting underneath us on Tues, while the Euro has it Thursday. Canadian is stupid cold late next week at least above our heads.


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Until the Canadian is right, I have to dismiss these cold runs it’s spitting out in the 8-10 day range to be outliers. Remember, last week at this time it was saying a very cold Thanksgiving and then just the other day it was saying full on Arctic blast coming out of Thanksgiving weekend.
 
Chazwin said:
Until the Canadian is right, I have to dismiss these cold runs it’s spitting out in the 8-10 day range to be outliers. Remember, last week at this time it was saying a very cold Thanksgiving and then just the other day it was saying full on Arctic blast coming out of Thanksgiving weekend.
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The truth is these models really just suck. We don’t know what’s gonna happen till it’s here.
 
Unless something changes this system is not dropping 2+ amounts anywhere and many of us may get .50 or less. The GFS says this is it for the next 2 weeks as well. Hopefully we get a real pattern change soon.
 
No rain here yet either, I could see what was happening last night too. We aren’t getting any rain out of this thing. Maybe areas east will.
 
Wedge has locked in here solid now. Will be stuck in mid 40s remainder of daylight part of the day guessing we get a windshift at the surface latter this evening, then back to NW wind sunrise early morning Wed
 
Chazwin said:
Until the Canadian is right, I have to dismiss these cold runs it’s spitting out in the 8-10 day range to be outliers. Remember, last week at this time it was saying a very cold Thanksgiving and then just the other day it was saying full on Arctic blast coming out of Thanksgiving weekend.
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Yea I agree. But all 3 give a nice slap of canadian air in here middle next week. I just posted the most sexy looking one for reference. Nice blocking does the trick.
 
JHS said:
Unless something changes this system is not dropping 2+ amounts anywhere and many of us may get .50 or less. The GFS says this is it for the next 2 weeks as well. Hopefully we get a real pattern change soon.
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Sounds like a strong el nino is underway, which is supposed to produce a blowtorch December and a very active STJ with lots of rain. ?
 
JHS said:
Unless something changes this system is not dropping 2+ amounts anywhere and many of us may get .50 or less. The GFS says this is it for the next 2 weeks as well. Hopefully we get a real pattern change soon.
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Ill take the over 1.0 here at our local. Nice soaker so far. Like yall, ground is hard as asphalt. So we need duration, not gully washer prefearably.
 
Lots of 33-35 degree temps on the northern Blue Ridge west of IAD with rain falling. Mostly between 1500 and 2400' asl out there. Those neighborhoods from Mount Weather/Bluemont to Blue Mountain to Linden.
 
JHS said:
Unless something changes this system is not dropping 2+ amounts anywhere and many of us may get .50 or less. The GFS says this is it for the next 2 weeks as well. Hopefully we get a real pattern change soon.
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North of you i think there will be 2+ totals in parts of NC/VA/WV
 
NCSNOW said:
Ill take the over 1.0 here at our local. Nice soaker so far. Like yall, ground is hard as asphalt. So we need duration, not gully washer prefearably.
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You are in a nice spot for this. Central NC into VA should do well with this as the low cranks up later. Not so much for much of northern GA into upstate SC.
 
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HRRR is finally picking up on the fact that there won't be any organized line of storms until later in the day, way east. This was a non event for our area. Hopefully areas closer to Chattanooga were able to get some rain. I'm just so disgusted with our local mets and weather service. The audacity to forecast 1 to 2" of rain when not one single model was showing that. The RAP last night depicted what happened perfectly.

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J.C. said:
HRRR is finally picking up on the fact that there won't be any organized line of storms until later in the day, way east. This was a non event for our area. Hopefully areas closer to Chattanooga were able to get some rain. I'm just so disgusted with our local mets and weather service. The audacity to forecast 1 to 2" of rain when not one single model was showing that. The RAP last night depicted what happened perfectly.

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What RAP song were you listening to?
 
J.C. said:
HRRR is finally picking up on the fact that there won't be any organized line of storms until later in the day, way east. This was a non event for our area. Hopefully areas closer to Chattanooga were able to get some rain. I'm just so disgusted with our local mets and weather service. The audacity to forecast 1 to 2" of rain when not one single model was showing that. The RAP last night depicted what happened perfectly.

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I’m up to .2” now so it is my best rain in a couple months.
 
EmersonGA said:
I’m up to .2” now so it is my best rain in a couple months.
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My physical gauge says .35", which is surprising to me as its all been light to moderate showers today. I've had .8" this month prior, and 1.8" last month, so areas north and west need it far more.
 
J.C. said:
My physical gauge says .35", which is surprising to me as its all been light to moderate showers today. I've had .8" this month prior, and 1.8" last month, so areas north and west need it far more.
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It’s been bone dry but it’s even worse to my NW so I’m glad to see Chattanooga and NE Bama getting hit. It does suck that my swamp is dry right when duck season opens.
 
.35 here with a little more coming over the next couple of hours. There are signs that a band of heavier rain forming in AL that might come up this way later. If this does not happen we will end this with under .50 with little to no rain for at least 10 days if not more.
 
J.C. said:
HRRR is finally picking up on the fact that there won't be any organized line of storms until later in the day, way east. This was a non event for our area. Hopefully areas closer to Chattanooga were able to get some rain. I'm just so disgusted with our local mets and weather service. The audacity to forecast 1 to 2" of rain when not one single model was showing that. The RAP last night depicted what happened perfectly.

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Line is starting to build to our west. Hoping we can get a quick 0.25” if the intensity is there ?
 
We've had 0.37" of rain so far. Here comes a little more. I'm calling a total of around 1.25" and that's being generous.

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Last night was and stormy night for me, it rain for several hours and on the way from work this morning I couldn’t see in front of me. The rain was so heavy and winds, definitely an overachiever for my area.
 
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