Pattern November 2023

[JHS]

Not that I put much stock in the GFS after 4 or 5 days, the 18z actually ends up the wettest overall run for the SE than we’ve seen in some time. It actually lined up pretty well with both the 12z GEFS and EPS.

Still in the long range, but it does get very wet with 4+ inches for many of us. This has been going back and forth but hopefully the wet solution will be right. 18z was actually some modest improvement for some of us this weekend. Not nearly the rain we need, but at least .20 or so for some of us. The Euro has a 2nd batch on Sunday that drops up to 1 inch on many of us. It shows more rain for much of the southeast through day 10 so we might finally be turning the corner with this towards a wet pattern.

 

[JHS]

Cmon now

She is probably right about extreme drought at least in north GA and into the western Carolinas. It is already in southern Tenn and north Al and Miss. Exceptional is probably off the table through if the long range modeling is right.

 

[Brent]

A week ago we had the coldest Halloween on record. Fun times

 

[tractor girl]

Cmon now

We're literally already in Severe Drought conditions.

 

[JHS]

We're literally already in Severe Drought conditions.

Severe drought where I am too. May go into extreme along the NC/SC border when the new map comes out. Also a couple of fairly big fires too in the mountains.

 

[Chazwin]

Still in the long range, but it does get very wet with 4+ inches for many of us. This has been going back and forth but hopefully the wet solution will be right. 18z was actually some modest improvement for some of us this weekend. Not nearly the rain we need, but at least .20 or so for some of us. The Euro has a 2nd batch on Sunday that drops up to 1 inch on many of us. It shows more rain for much of the southeast through day 10 so we might finally be turning the corner with this towards a wet pattern.

Yeah I’ve really been paying close attention to the ensembles the past week and both the GEFS and EPS have been pretty consistent with getting the STJ going during the 11-15th timeframe. Also there’s some indication on the GEFS that there might be some severe weather across the south the weekend before Thanksgiving

 

[JHS]

Well, if the GFS is right this weekend will be dry for most of us and the long range is a lot drier too. The Euro still has the weekend rain but is trending slowly drier too. It looks like exceptional drought may be coming after all.

 

[Rain Cold]

Well, if the GFS is right this weekend will be dry for most of us and the long range is a lot drier too. The Euro still has the weekend rain but is trending slowly drier too. It looks like exceptional drought may be coming after all.

I would go Biblical drought, if I were making the forecast. It will probably never rain again, tbh...though, we would want to be careful about making such wild statements, so we don't get the appearance of being overly dramatic with our proclamations.

 

[tractor girl]

Trending dryer and dryer. Euro is just as ------

 

[weatherfide]

Trending dryer and dryer. Euro is just as ------

View attachment 137775

December, January, February and March will more than easily reverse the drought conditions. Relax...

 

[NoSnowATL]

Trending dryer and dryer. Euro is just as ------

View attachment 137775

Few more dry weeks to go.

 

[SD]

No but it's not entirely unheard of. I think we start getting wetter post 11/10 with the last 8-12 days of the month being really wet

 

[SD]

I have my concerns but on paper the ends of the 6z gefs and 0z eps are a chefs kiss. I worry the ridge over amps and we get WC trough and SER, if it doesn't probably looking at a potential nor easter around Thanksgiving or the week after.

 

[tennessee storm]

Trending dryer and dryer. Euro is just as ------

View attachment 137775

Rest month don’t look much better accept chance maybe weekend … December is usually dry month… could get interesting

 

[RoddyPiper]

Looking forward to the soaking were going to get in Alabama from Friday - Sunday. Much welcomed!

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Rest month don’t look much better accept chance maybe weekend … December is usually dry month… could get interesting

I didn't realize December was a dry month.

 

[NoSnowATL]

I didn't realize December was a dry month.

It can be, my location avg around 2.5in for December. We did get 11in of rain in 2019.

 

[RoddyPiper]

I didn't realize December was a dry month.

Its not. Its actually Huntsville's wettest month of the year on average, with Birmingham's being March I believe.

 

[olhausen]

Rest month don’t look much better accept chance maybe weekend … December is usually dry month… could get interesting

Pretty sure it’s October thats drier.

 

[tractor girl]

Its not. Its actually Huntsville's wettest month of the year on average, with Birmingham's being March I believe.

February is ours. December is still usually wetter than the preceeding two months.