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Pattern November 2023

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06z GFS
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New 12z run
Huge change, probably going to see some flip flopping like this as some of the gfs ensemble members having been showing both solutions. Either way, a rain maker that could potentially bring some really beneficial numbers in. Something also to watch for how much this system digs as we we could establish some solid cold air from Thanksgiving and on.
 
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06z GFS
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New 12z run
Huge change, probably going to see some flip flopping like this as some of the gfs ensemble members having been showing both solutions. Either way, a rain maker that could potentially bring some really beneficial numbers in. Something also to watch for how much this system digs as we we could establish some solid cold air from Thanksgiving and on.
That might also lead to some severe weather ahead of the cold front. Also, the 12z CMC does put freezing temperatures down to the western Florida panhandle on Thanksgiving morning while the GFS continues to show more of a glancing shot of cold for the southeast with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than the CMC.
 
Too bad we aren't deeper in the heart of the cold season the later hours of the 12z gfs would have this place buzzing with a pretty decent cold nino look. Weak SER reflection at H5, cold highs stretched across the northern tier and weak impulses moving from Nola to CHS
 
We certainly need the rain in the Southeast and this Thanksgiving Eve-Thanksgiving system is poised to deliver the goods for many of us. It would be nice if the cold air push would arrive quicker and deeper than modeled. Next Wednesday happens to be my birthday and even seeing some token flakes would be a win for me. There has never been any measurable snow reported in the RDU area recorded on that calendar day. I'd love to see that happen!
 
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Are we wasting a good one in December if so?
It depends on how far south you might be. It's so hard to score in the deep south, but those along the I-85 corridor can certainly score in December. I'd rather get on the scoreboard early and gamble with house money the rest of the winter.
 
It depends on how far south you might be. It's so hard to score in the deep south, but those along the I-85 corridor can certainly score in December. I'd rather get on the scoreboard early and gamble with house money the rest of the winter.
Let's not forget the deep south had a major snowstorm (8-12") in some areas in early December 2017.
 
I came across a great article last night by accident and lost the link. They have AI doing forecast using the euro initialization. Say its smoking all the wx models which are built to generate forecast with math,physics. Has another way of doing. Anyone else see this or related info please pass along. Thanks
 
That one and Dec 2017 missed Union county in SC for the most part. Had some sleet but no snow in 2018. Only rain in 2017. Our best December snow here was in 1993.
Amazing what an hour or so drive NW will do,
I've lived in my home since 06.
The power lines are buried here and Miles from here.
Only time the power went out was during that storm.
We had heavy wet snow falling here for 5 or 6 hours.
Snowed over 8 inches here.
With plenty of trees down.
 
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Wow. That was really interesting.

As an old weather enthusiast geezer, I'm not sure I like the continued improvements in weather forecasting. In some ways, knowing what the weather will do with near certainty takes some of the fun out of it.

Edited to add, AI forecasting seems headed to making a met degree about as financially useful as basket weaving.
At 6 days it's still just a crap shoot, with AI modeling or traditional ones. Still sitting at three days for any real degree of accuracy. There is only so much you can do unless you have better real-time data coverage.
 
At 6 days it's still just a crap shoot, with AI modeling or traditional ones. Still sitting at three days for any real degree of accuracy. There is only so much you can do unless you have better real-time data coverage.
Yes, as of now. And of course, it's good to remember today's 6-day accuracy is roughly 20 years ago's 3-day accuracy.

What's intriguing about the AI approach is it's essentially short and medium-term analogs on steroids which would seem to improve medium and long-term forecasting the most.
 
Yes, as of now. And of course, it's good to remember today's 6-day accuracy is roughly 20 years ago's 3-day accuracy.

What's intriguing about the AI approach is it's essentially short and medium-term analogs on steroids which would seem to improve medium and long-term forecasting the most.
Ok, this is interesting. It's basically running tons of nested if/then statements, using limited historical data to predict a short distance in to the future, but it is not modeling how the physics actually work. This is all AI is which means it "understands" nothing. What are the implications for relying on it? Seems like we devolve in to idiocracy.
 
Ok, this is interesting. It's basically running tons of nested if/then statements, using limited historical data to predict a short distance in to the future, but it is not modeling how the physics actually work. This is all AI is which means it "understands" nothing. What are the implications for relying on it? Seems like we devolve in to idiocracy.
I suspect this method coupled with dynamic modeling is the future. And by the future, a few years at most.

"The new AI models skip the expense of solving equations in favor of “deep learning.” They identify patterns in the way the atmosphere naturally evolves, after training on 40 years of ECMWF “reanalysis” data—a combination of observations and short-term model forecasts that represents modelers’ best and most complete picture of past weather. When fed a starting snapshot of the atmosphere based on the same combination of observations and modeling, GraphCast can outperform the ECMWF forecast out to 10 days on 90% of its verification targets, including hurricane tracks and extreme temperatures."
 
They should add a D5 on the drought monitor to highlight all-time record-breaking droughts.

Total precip for Chattanooga currently stands at 0.48" for meteorological fall.
The driest met fall on record (going back to 1879) is 2.72" back in 1939.
Driest ever 3-month period is Aug-Oct 1963 with 2.07".

So, even if we get 1.59" of precip the next two weeks, it will still end up being the driest 3-month period ever recorded, lol, that's how deep this drought is. A relative deluge of 2.23" still yields the driest met fall on ever.
 
They should add a D5 on the drought monitor to highlight all-time record-breaking droughts.

Total precip for Chattanooga currently stands at 0.48" for meteorological fall.
The driest met fall on record (going back to 1879) is 2.72" back in 1939.
Driest ever 3-month period is Aug-Oct 1963 with 2.07".

So, even if we get 1.59" of precip the next two weeks, it will still end up being the driest 3-month period ever recorded, lol, that's how deep this drought is. A relative deluge of 2.23" still yields the driest met fall on ever.
Thankfully this hit in the fall when the days are short and cool. We’d be on the news if it was summer.
 
Thankfully this hit in the fall when the days are short and cool. We’d be on the news if it was summer.
Yeah, just like we were in 1986 when we had to get hay from the midwest to prevent a major disaster. That was all over the news that summer. 1993 was another rough one too, along with 2002 and especially 2007.
 
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