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Pattern November 2023

Brent said:
I guess we are having fall this year ?

November snow last year did us no good for the winter so I'm fine with waiting

I get people are tired of warmth but like it's not like warmth now is like summer either...
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Yep, the silver lining with next week is at least it's too late for it to be hot, but still I'd rather it be in the low 70's instead of what we're going to see.
 
JHS said:
This November may be cold but certainly not wet. No rain in sight on the GFS. The drought map just keeps getting more colorful.
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Both the GEFS and the EPS the last couple days are really starting to pick up the activity of the STJ as we go into the 11-15th timeframe. The GEFS has a widespread 1.5-2” precipitation mean by the 18th. The timing on this follows right in line when we typically start seeing moisture dramatically increase during a moderate to strong El Niño.
 
Chazwin said:
Both the GEFS and the EPS the last couple days are really starting to pick up the activity of the STJ as we go into the 11-15th timeframe. The GEFS has a widespread 1.5-2” precipitation mean by the 18th. The timing on this follows right in line when we typically start seeing moisture dramatically increase during a moderate to strong El Niño.
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Hopefully the ops will start indicating it also
 
EmersonGA said:
If by Atlanta you mean the square mile around the airport. Literally everywhere else around there had one last night.
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Don't even get me started about this crock of ----. I have had 3 nights this spell at 30 or lower, currently I have 28. The Airport has 39. The “official” temp for Atlanta is hideously misleading.
 

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NoSnowATL said:
We hear about the 09/10 winter so much, if you go back and look that fall started warm until mid December.
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Can’t speak for our entire region obviously, but for Atlanta October this year for example was WAY WARMER overall than October 2009 was. There were 9 days in the 80s compared to 2 80+ degree days in 2009. Another significant difference is precipitation also. October 2009 was extremely wet (8.71 inches). There was only 1.78 inches recorded last month at the airport. It’s too early to say how November/December will turn out on temps/precip, but with the possibility of low 80s returning again next week I can say if it happens November 2023 will be warmer than November 2009 was. The warmest day was 74 that month/year. Personally, I feel like this El Niño has been off to a slower start compared to 2009/10 mainly on the precipitation. The temperatures don’t matter that much at this point, it’s fall not winter yet. The switch can wait to flip on winter temps post December 20th as far as I’m concerned.

October 2009

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www.ncdc.noaa.gov
October 2023

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www.ncdc.noaa.gov
 
NC guys need to look at the 12z GFS. It has snow, at least briefly, over much of the area west of I-77 at 240.
 
JHS said:
NC guys need to look at the 12z GFS. It has snow, at least briefly, over much of the area west of I-77 at 240.
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Yeah actually it shows snow from about Highland County VA south into NC.
 
MB22 said:
Yeah actually it shows snow from about Highland County VA south into NC.
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0 pattern support unfortunately, it’ll be gone next run
 
Chazwin said:
There is literally zero support for it. The GEFS mean has temperatures well into the 60s that day.
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Yeah, it is not happening of course. I just thought it was interesting. A month later it might have had a chance. I just hope the rain it shows is right.
 
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