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Pattern November 2023

86 to 55 here. Next week looking pretty normal so far which would be a change

Next timeframe I'm watching is around Thanksgiving. I've heard the epo goes negative which is usually a cold air signal here. We shall see
 
J.C. said:
Not looking good for Thanksgiving revenue at the southern ski resorts.
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It actually looks like they might have a fairly decent Thanksgiving this year. There’s going to be some cold enough nights to make snow early to mid next week. Then after the warm shot next weekend, another cool shot comes in and they should be able to make snow every night during the week of Thanksgiving through the weekend.
 
tennessee storm said:
Looking like we going get enjoy our turkey dinner out on the back patio this year … .
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Right now it looks like things cool off for Thanksgiving. The GEFS has temperatures just slightly below to average for the holiday… actually perfect for the backyard football games. Kinda following in line with the roller coaster the temps have been on the last couple of weeks.
 
Fairly solid rain in Blacksburg Va right now, definitely needed this. Just wish it wasn’t happening as I’m walking around campus
 
MB22 said:
Dropped from 50 to 41 in the last 90 minutes with rain in Winchester Va. Nearly 70 yesterday. It was 81 at IAD. They need the rain.
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GSP said in its morning discussion that there should be a 20-25F temperature spread from NE to SW across it’s forecast region my late this afternoon… nothing like a backdoor front.
 
Chazwin said:
Right now it looks like things cool off for Thanksgiving. The GEFS has temperatures just slightly below to average for the holiday… actually perfect for the backyard football games. Kinda following in line with the roller coaster the temps have been on the last couple of weeks.
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Don’t know , gets hasn’t been on its game as late
 
Chazwin said:
Right now it looks like things cool off for Thanksgiving. The GEFS has temperatures just slightly below to average for the holiday… actually perfect for the backyard football games. Kinda following in line with the roller coaster the temps have been on the last couple of weeks.
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I had hoped the ridge out west would respond like the 6z gefs and we would dump cold around Thanksgiving into the very early early part of December before a pretty dramatic flip to warm. Now with the eps and geps losing that ridge signal I think we are at the mercy of wave timing and transient wedging for Thanksgiving. I'd go 63/38 as an early call but the window of possibility for highs is probably 46-76
 
Chazwin said:
What??? The GEFS has been doing very good lately. It’s been consistent without big swings or big spreads, and it been fairly accurate in the 10-15 day
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Chazwin said:
What??? The GEFS has been doing very good lately. It’s been consistent without big swings or big spreads, and it been fairly accurate in the 10-15 day range.
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Had some flaws lately … like. Most
 
cyclogent said:
Had a nice drought busting deluge today with 0.03" of precip. Sigh.
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Yea, major bust on precip totals on our local forecast (Spann)....but the models were actually pretty good the last 24 hours at showing nothing more than heavy sprinkles
 
Latter part of the month looks like a -EPO/-PNA/Canadian block kind of pattern. Could be legit cold around, could be record breaking temps, could be a little of both. CMCE/EPS has a badly tilted -EPO with a -PNA while the gefs has a +PNA/-EPO and sort of has the first legit pattern that would be able to produce. In some ways looks similar to dec 2017 447E09C8-9466-4CB0-BF0B-7E50B96BACE9.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Latter part of the month looks like a -EPO/-PNA/Canadian block kind of pattern. Could be legit cold around, could be record breaking temps, could be a little of both. CMCE/EPS has a badly tilted -EPO with a -PNA while the gefs has a +PNA/-EPO and sort of has the first legit pattern that would be able to produce. In some ways looks similar to dec 2017 View attachment 137861
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Welcome back; now this is the Fro I know and love. Bring the positivity and good stuff! ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Latter part of the month looks like a -EPO/-PNA/Canadian block kind of pattern. Could be legit cold around, could be record breaking temps, could be a little of both. CMCE/EPS has a badly tilted -EPO with a -PNA while the gefs has a +PNA/-EPO and sort of has the first legit pattern that would be able to produce. In some ways looks similar to dec 2017 View attachment 137861
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This is what your posts should always look like.;)
 
RoddyPiper said:
Yea, major bust on precip totals on our local forecast (Spann)....but the models were actually pretty good the last 24 hours at showing nothing more than heavy sprinkles
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I think there's going to be two more rounds come through supposedly.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Latter part of the month looks like a -EPO/-PNA/Canadian block kind of pattern. Could be legit cold around, could be record breaking temps, could be a little of both. CMCE/EPS has a badly tilted -EPO with a -PNA while the gefs has a +PNA/-EPO and sort of has the first legit pattern that would be able to produce. In some ways looks similar to dec 2017 View attachment 137861
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As well as the GEFS has done lately, I would still lean towards the EPS when they’re showing those type of differences. I think any +PNA would be transient like the couple times we’ve seen lately.
 
I dunno if anything will actually happen but I'm officially intrigued by the Thanksgiving weekend timeframe here. Yeah I know it's fantasy land but that is not the first GFS run that has shown something and more importantly ive heard the teleconnections may be favorable for wintry
 
Brent said:
I dunno if anything will actually happen but I'm officially intrigued by the Thanksgiving weekend timeframe here. Yeah I know it's fantasy land but that is not the first GFS run that has shown something and more importantly ive heard the teleconnections may be favorable for wintry
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Euro and some other models are hinting at storms in La La land. Good signs
 
The long range GFS is a roller coaster ride. Warm then cold, warm again and so on. At least some snow for many of us around Thanksgiving and a major storm inbound at 384. Middle to late next week looking wet on the GFS too for many of us. A long way out of course, but that 384 system may be trouble if it verifies.
 
JHS said:
The long range GFS is a roller coaster ride. Warm then cold, warm again and so on. At least some snow for many of us around Thanksgiving and a major storm inbound at 384. Middle to late next week looking wet on the GFS too for many of us. A long way out of course, but that 384 system may be trouble if it verifies.
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Models can’t handle the atmospheric changes that are associated with a coming pattern change. There will be wild swings until it finally sees the cold pattern that sets up around thanksgiving
 
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