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Pattern November 2023

Gobble Gobble! Turkey with Ice instead of Gravy this run.

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The 18z NAM is drier. The 2nd round is weaker and farther south. The GFS through hour 93 is basically a miss for most of us on the 1st round and for most of NC it looks like on the 2nd round. Little to no help for the wildfires in the mountains this run. Hopefully things get better in the long range. Still very dry in south Al, GA, and all of FLA too.
 
Looks like a pretty sharp cutoff in precip once you get south of Macon. Is that because of the SE Ridge ?
 

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JHS said:
The 18z NAM is drier. The 2nd round is weaker and farther south. The GFS through hour 93 is basically a miss for most of us on the 1st round and for most of NC it looks like on the 2nd round. Little to no help for the wildfires in the mountains this run. Hopefully things get better in the long range. Still very dry in south Al, GA, and all of FLA too.
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Looks good for my area in southwest Al
 
86 degrees today. Three degrees off the all time November high. We've had fropa now but I can't wait to see how we pay for this dearly this winter ?
 
JHS said:
The 18z NAM is drier. The 2nd round is weaker and farther south. The GFS through hour 93 is basically a miss for most of us on the 1st round and for most of NC it looks like on the 2nd round. Little to no help for the wildfires in the mountains this run. Hopefully things get better in the long range. Still very dry in south Al, GA, and all of FLA too.
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0Z NAM looks bad so far.
 
Brent said:
86 degrees today. Three degrees off the all time November high. We've had fropa now but I can't wait to see how we pay for this dearly this winter ?
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You might get one of those Christmas cold fronts like you got last year later on down the road to pay for this heat.
 
JHS said:

| U.S. Drought Monitor

droughtmonitor.unl.edu droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Getting worse. Extreme drought now in a small part of upstate SC and exceptional around Chattanooga Tenn. Models do not look great for either area for this weekend. Some of us will not get a drop from these 2 events and will have to wait another 10 days at least.
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I've been told on this very site that drought doesn't happen and it always rains.
 
SD said:
I've been told on this very site that drought doesn't happen and it always rains.
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I'm in that deep red in North GVL county in upstate SC.
I've went from excessive flooding in a LA Nina for 2 years.
To no rain at all in almost 2 months in an EL Nino.
Many driving factors in weather.
I just hope we all get some much needed rain soon.
Several fronts with nice steady soaking rains.
 
Billypg70 said:
I'm in that deep red in North GVL county in upstate SC.
I've went from excessive flooding in a LA Nina for 2 years.
To no rain at all in almost 2 months in an EL Nino.
Many driving factors in weather.
I just hope we all get some much needed rain soon.
Several fronts with nice steady soaking rains.
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We need rain, less then 10in of rain in the last 4 months is sad.
 
Billypg70 said:
I'm in that deep red in North GVL county in upstate SC.
I've went from excessive flooding in a LA Nina for 2 years.
To no rain at all in almost 2 months in an EL Nino.
Many driving factors in weather.
I just hope we all get some much needed rain soon.
Several fronts with nice steady soaking rains.
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Exactly the same here in SW Rutherford county. Flooding the last 2 years and yard soaking wet for months at a time to no rain at all the last 2 months. Dusty bone dry everywhere around these parts.
 
SASQUATCH said:
Watch it do this, rinse/repeat of last year. I'm just kidding, sorta...being pessimistic.

View attachment 137830
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It actually DOES do that! If you run it out to 360, which is dangerous, I know, it builds a rex block over the east and sends the center of the trough in to central California! Hello sky resorts! 2023 says to 2022, hold my beer!
 
FallsLake said:
12z GFS surface temps at midday the day before Thanksgiving:
View attachment 137829

Just looking at the temps shows a fun setup. CAD in the SE and really strong cold front pushing into the heartland of the US.
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SnowNiner said:
Agreed, for whatever tropical forcing reason, the western trough has been prediminate the last several years. I expect that to continue until it stops.
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At least we would get a wedge, but the real fun would remain out West. And you are correct, this has been the ongoing pattern for years now, the East just can't get any true cold, especially not sustained. One front for a few days last Dec and one front in Jan of 2018 don't change that reality. As RC has said, there just doesn't seem to to be any pattern that, regardless of ENSO, PDO, PNA, etc, that will yield real winter weather in the East anymore, and especially our area. We'll see what happens this winter but there is no real reason to expect anything different.
 
HugeSnowStick said:
I thought this was going to flip this year, due to El Nino?
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Yeah, it may. But for reasons, ninos act like Nina's due to the -IOD, or the AAM, or other acronym that causes western troughs and the SE ridge. To me it's something bigger than a modulating seasonal variable that causes the western trough prevalence lately, but I don't know what it is.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Hit 83 at RDU, tying the record high from 2005.
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GSP was 84
CLT was 83
AVL was 82

All of them daily records. GSP and CLT only 2 degrees off the monthly record and AVL only one off. This is crazy warm and I've had enough of these 80s the last couple of weeks. Ready for consistent fall please!
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
GSP was 84
CLT was 83
AVL was 82

All of them daily records. GSP and CLT only 2 degrees off the monthly record and AVL only one off. This is crazy warm and I've had enough of these 80s the last couple of weeks. Ready for consistent fall please!
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It looks like the roller coaster is going to continue. Two weeks ago we had record warmth. Last week was well below average for most of the week. We have had record warmth this week, and next week looks fairly cool though not as much as we saw last week. Thanksgiving is looking like it at least starts fairly mild right now.
 
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