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Pattern November 2023

Stevo24 said:
I think we’re starting to see signs of what we’re gonna see most of winter. A lot of coastal lows which is what we want. Just gotta get them to line up with some cold.
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I agree and we’re already seeing signs of that this week with the low in the Gulf and moving east giving beneficial rain to the Gulf coast. I still think outside of the mountains, we will be waiting until January for any legit winter storm threats… I just still don’t see anything other than transient cold shots to work with.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree and we’re already seeing signs of that this week with the low in the Gulf and moving east giving beneficial rain to the Gulf coast. I still think outside of the mountains, we will be waiting until January for any legit winter storm threats… I just still don’t see anything other than transient cold shots to work with.
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Honestly transient cold shots don’t bother me as when the stars align you can really cash in. A perfectly timed December cold shot delivered the biggest snow here since ‘93 in 2017.
 
Arcc said:
Honestly transient cold shots don’t bother me as when the stars align you can really cash in. A perfectly timed December cold shot delivered the biggest snow here since ‘93 in 2017.
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It's funny that the 2 biggest snows I've experienced were in December and March, yet the averages say January and February are snowier.
 
The 6z GFS at the end of Thanksgiving weekend has what would be an absolutely perfectly tracked Gulf low for the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate, but it seems to have backed off considerably on the cold air. Even after that system, it looks like it’s just a very quick glancing shot of cold air for the southeast
 
The GFS/GEFS press down harder verse the Eps and CAN/GEPS suites. The Canadian says you need a boat as you head to over the hills and to the woods to Grand mamas house for Turkey day. The GFS Op has snow down in Mexico and pretty chilly air. The CFS gives credence to Chazwin showing Normal to slightly AN as we get to the end of the first week of December into the second week. I'm just trying to nail down the Holliday weekend forecast. Lots of doings that will be dictated by the wx like a lot of folks on here Im sure.

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NCSNOW said:
The GFS/GEFS press down harder verse the Eps and CAN/GEPS suites. The Canadian says you need a boat as you head to over the hills and to the woods to Grand mamas house for Turkey day. The GFS Op has snow down in Mexico and pretty chilly air. The CFS gives credence to Chazwin showing Normal to slightly AN as we get to the end of the first week of December into the second week. I'm just trying to nail down the Holliday weekend forecast. Lots of doings that will be dictated by the wx like a lot of folks on here Im sure.

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Another thing on the Canadian is that it looks like there would be a sizable severe weather outbreak for Georgia and the Carolinas a couple days before Thanksgiving
 
Any cold shots around the holidays would be nice. I’m just ready to fast forward through November into December
 
Ollie Williams said:
This might be interesting.
View attachment 137941
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Looking at the teleconnections, that’s actually a time period that looks like it has a chance to produce. It looks like there would be a +PNA that would be relaxing and going towards slightly negative after a few days in positive territory, and the AO and NAO look to be going slightly negative at the same time. I’m just not sold that there would be much in the way of cold air to work with.
 
SD said:
Interesting model battle at D7 euro is mediocre with the depth of the trough moving into the lakes so the deep cold stays tied up to our north while the cmc unloads and the gfs splits the 2. Euro though is about to drop a legitimate arctic shot into the US at D10
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I thought the GFS was closer to the EURO at D7 than the Canadian. The coldest anomalies move over the Northeast and it’s in and out fairly quick. At day 10, the EURO does look like it’s about to drop a lot of cold air into the US, but it looks like it might dump it out west.
 
Chazwin said:
I thought the GFS was closer to the EURO at D7 than the Canadian. The coldest anomalies move over the Northeast and it’s in and out fairly quick. At day 10, the EURO does look like it’s about to drop a lot of cold air into the US, but it looks like it might dump it out west.
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Being super picky I'd like to have that ridge axis over NW Canada to really drive the cold into the SE. Where it's at is more of a drop and spread location imo. The 12z eps plumes and averages didn't change a lot vs the 0z and the op is one of the warmer members around and after Thanksgiving.
 
JHS said:
He would have a rough time if we ever get a Jan 24 2000 repeat. Anderson got very little out of it while much of NC and SC got 12+. They did not do very good in late Feb 2004 either when many of us got 12+ again.
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I always thought the whole upstate did well with February 2004 storm. I didn’t realize there was a sharp cutoff back that way. Still my favorite snowstorm of all time because it had everything where I was living in southern Cabarrus County at the time… 8” piling up during the day then that upper low just sitting over dumping another 10-12” during the night.
 
JHS said:
He would have a rough time if we ever get a Jan 24 2000 repeat. Anderson got very little out of it while much of NC and SC got 12+. They did not do very good in late Feb 2004 either when many of us got 12+ again.
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Chazwin said:
I always thought the whole upstate did well with February 2004 storm. I didn’t realize there was a sharp cutoff back that way. Still my favorite snowstorm of all time because it had everything where I was living in southern Cabarrus County at the time… 8” piling up during the day then that upper low just sitting over dumping another 10-12” during the night.
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Yeah, most probably don't realize the western upstate; Oconee, Pickens, Anderson, parts of Greenville counties haven't seen a 10 inch snow since March 93 or even Jan 88. Eastern areas have been in on multiple ones; Jan 2000, Feb 2004, Dec 2010, maybe even March 2009. Jan 2000 and Feb 2004 were total skips for the NW corner... no more than flurries.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Yeah, most probably don't realize the western upstate; Oconee, Pickens, Anderson, parts of Greenville counties haven't seen a 10 inch snow since March 93 or even Jan 88. Eastern areas have been in on multiple ones; Jan 2000, Feb 2004, Dec 2010, maybe even March 2009. Jan 2000 and Feb 2004 were total skips for the NW corner... no more than flurries.
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Lots of speculation but the line of nuclear power stations and the continued building around Greenville keep that area as much as 5-7 degrees warmer. That’s why I always say if we have the opportunity for snow or any wintry weather, areas along and west of highway 25 in Greenville back towards Spartanburg and Gaffney have the best chance. There’s been plenty of times my neck of the woods is sitting in the mid 20’s while a place like Seneca or Clemson or Easley can be around freezing at best. And those locations are several miles north of 85.
 
Itryatgolf said:
The mjo going through 8-2 should offer up colder weather opportunities moving forward but Bamwx mentioned that to expect warmer weather in much of December due to mjo progression 3-6. ??
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That would actually follow along fairly closely to the graphic that Webb posted a few days ago in the Winter Discussion thread. It shows that with a strong El Niño, there is often short period of below average temperatures in the east in the last few days of November into the first few days of December before becoming predominantly milder than average for the rest of December.
 
iGRXY said:
Lots of speculation but the line of nuclear power stations and the continued building around Greenville keep that area as much as 5-7 degrees warmer. That’s why I always say if we have the opportunity for snow or any wintry weather, areas along and west of highway 25 in Greenville back towards Spartanburg and Gaffney have the best chance. There’s been plenty of times my neck of the woods is sitting in the mid 20’s while a place like Seneca or Clemson or Easley can be around freezing at best. And those locations are several miles north of 85.
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I would disagree, at least for my immediate area. Many of those areas are actually cooler than Greenville at the surface. I think it has more to do with the orientation of airflow over the mountains. The cold coming over the mountains doesn't fall straight down, it skips over those immediate areas creating a warmer pocket at the mid levels. Other factors are that precipitation tends to end right as the cold gets to those areas but eastern areas still have more time with the precipitation once the cold is there (see Dec 2010, Feb 2015), we're a bit farther from wedge sources, and too far from the Atlantic in coastal low situations. Jan 2000 and Feb 2004 weren't about temps, they were about the low being too far away. All that said, I am just on the edge and still do better than many in the NW corner, and Dacusville tends to do well.
 
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