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Pattern November 2023

Thankfully this hit in the fall when the days are short and cool. We’d be on the news if it was summer.
I had a work crew set up with heavy trucks in what is a bog in normal to wet weather. The dry paid off for me this time..but when the pattern sets into a split flow with blocking, I don't want to see virga, lol. I had a tracked bobcat buried up over the tracks in the back corner, lol, so if it was really wet I wonder if it acts like quicksand....have the truck pop back up in a few months, like in Alleluia Trail. Already had one gom low soaking all day rain this season, so I want to see a train of those and hope to hit the jackpot with the northern jet pattern....not two day rains then dry for weeks and cold.
 
Yeah, just like we were in 1986 when we had to get hay from the midwest to prevent a major disaster. That was all over the news that summer. 1993 was another rough one too, along with 2002 and especially 2007.
Yea, it is really dry up here. Good the growing season is over. I was cleaning up after making a batch of beer and the birds were getting realy close to get to any water that was puddling near the workshop. That is what I wonder about. Over populated wildlife (deer), where are they getting water when everything is drying up? Sprinkles tomorrow PM. Next weeks system has been looking better but I still see fail potential.
 
The models are slowly trending drier. I am starting to think next week may just be dry for many of us. The Euro is awful in most of the Carolinas and GA through day 10 and the GFS is fairly dry out to 384 in parts of western NC and SC. We may just be getting set for a 1986 repeat unless things change.
 
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Looking at all the ops/ensembles latest.
Big Pattern Flip is undeniably coming: So long to the drought. We will start having the opposite evolve beginning next week. Expect wet to occur at a minimum every 3-5 days.
Another take away is the interior Northeast is going straight to winter /white Ground. No shortage of Noreasters out through 360, the first one will be sending howling winds through the alleys of NYC Masseys parade Turkey Day. They better have some good rope on hand on the backside of a 980mb deepening.
Euro suite is colder verse the American last week of Nov. Like Fro shows above. We will start Met winter Normal to Below Normal first few days, then see where she goes from there. Only argument I have to the east based Nino forecast of warm first half is I hate punting half of winter. I have read a few things, speculation that the east based strong nino, may not exactly behave like one due to a couple of flies in the ointment. Lets hope so. Ill be honest, as a winter wx lover, I hate this pattern the worst/ fear it the most. More than La Ninas. It is traditionally a recipe for straight on flooding of the conus with pacific origin air. Be interesting to watch unfold
 
Looking at all the ops/ensembles latest.
Big Pattern Flip is undeniably coming: So long to the drought. We will start having the opposite evolve beginning next week. Expect wet to occur at a minimum every 3-5 days.
Another take away is the interior Northeast is going straight to winter /white Ground. No shortage of Noreasters out through 360, the first one will be sending howling winds through the alleys of NYC Masseys parade Turkey Day. They better have some good rope on hand on the backside of a 980mb deepening.
Euro suite is colder verse the American last week of Nov. Like Fro shows above. We will start Met winter Normal to Below Normal first few days, then see where she goes from there. Only argument I have to the east based Nino forecast of warm first half is I hate punting half of winter. I have read a few things, speculation that the east based strong nino, may not exactly behave like one due to a couple of flies in the ointment. Lets hope so. Ill be honest, as a winter wx lover, I hate this pattern the worst/ fear it the most. More than La Ninas. It is traditionally a recipe for straight on flooding of the conus with pacific origin air. Be interesting to watch unfold
We thought this bout two weeks ago ….December is usually one our driest months too….
 
The last two runs of the GEFS and now the 6z GFS has really backed off on the southern extent of the cold air late next week. It’s not a torch but it’s definitely not showing some of the cold, especially over night lows, it has been showing
 
The last two runs of the GEFS and now the 6z GFS has really backed off on the southern extent of the cold air late next week. It’s not a torch but it’s definitely not showing some of the cold, especially over night lows, it has been showing
To be expected, and also the moisture this coming Tuesday-Wednesday is almost gone on the GFS. Most of us will probably be in the low 60s by the time it verifies.
 
EPS run was probably the best look this cool season. Pretty good H5 patternView attachment 137997View attachment 137998
great signal for this time of year
We thought this bout two weeks ago ….December is usually one our driest months too….
anecdotal evidence but i think it was 09/10 winter (another el nino year) that wilmington broke their december rainfall record. if you believe the enso paper trail + a little good ole regression to the mean then december can easily be wet
 
To be expected, and also the moisture this coming Tuesday-Wednesday is almost gone on the GFS. Most of us will probably be in the low 60s by the time it verifies.
I think that the GFS is having some convective feedback issues in terms of how it’s skipping the moisture over the western Carolinas and GA. The ICON, CMC, EURO, and ensembles still have good amounts going through through those areas. They have all backed off on the cold.
 
I think that the GFS is having some convective feedback issues in terms of how it’s skipping the moisture over the western Carolinas and GA. The ICON, CMC, EURO, and ensembles still have good amounts going through through those areas. They have all backed off on the cold.
You're probably right, the ICON looked very wet.
 
Looking at all the ops/ensembles latest.
Big Pattern Flip is undeniably coming: So long to the drought. We will start having the opposite evolve beginning next week. Expect wet to occur at a minimum every 3-5 days.
Another take away is the interior Northeast is going straight to winter /white Ground. No shortage of Noreasters out through 360, the first one will be sending howling winds through the alleys of NYC Masseys parade Turkey Day. They better have some good rope on hand on the backside of a 980mb deepening.
Euro suite is colder verse the American last week of Nov. Like Fro shows above. We will start Met winter Normal to Below Normal first few days, then see where she goes from there. Only argument I have to the east based Nino forecast of warm first half is I hate punting half of winter. I have read a few things, speculation that the east based strong nino, may not exactly behave like one due to a couple of flies in the ointment. Lets hope so. Ill be honest, as a winter wx lover, I hate this pattern the worst/ fear it the most. More than La Ninas. It is traditionally a recipe for straight on flooding of the conus with pacific origin air. Be interesting to watch unfold
Good post. I simply don't understand all the drought panic on here recently. Yes it's been a dry fall, but the growing season is over and many of us are coming off the wettest 4-6 year period on record; AND we're about to enter a Nino. I've just been enjoying a drier stretch for a change.
 
Good post. I simply don't understand all the drought panic on here recently. Yes it's been a dry fall, but the growing season is over and many of us are coming off the wettest 4-6 year period on record; AND we're about to enter a Nino. I've just been enjoying a drier stretch for a change.
Yeah, while I realize that places further west of me over northern GA and Alabama have been dryer, I would be a lot more concerned about it, if we were going into the middle of spring this dry and not the winter. Despite low lake and pond levels, water tables are still in fairly decent shape and trees are now dormant and not soaking up water.
 
Good post. I simply don't understand all the drought panic on here recently. Yes it's been a dry fall, but the growing season is over and many of us are coming off the wettest 4-6 year period on record; AND we're about to enter a Nino. I've just been enjoying a drier stretch for a change.
at least around here in virginia a lot of rivers have been running very low, especially ones that feed from shenandoah. the area under D3 is getting larger every week. we really haven't had a true gully washer in months. panic may be a strong word but folks have a right to be anxious
 
Still no real agreement about next week. The Euro has most of GA and FLA at .75 or less at day 10 along with upstate SC.
 
73 today at IAD...lol. 6th 70+ degree day this month. Plus a day in the 80's. Northern Virginia has become the new Georgia climate wise. ?

They have had 9 sub 32 degree mornings though. Very very dry.
 
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The CMC, ICON and GEFS are starting to beef up rain totals for the Carolinas and northern GA in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
00z Icon just cut totals in half. 60s behind the front.
 
Going to be interesting to see how much energy gets left behind of the system mid week. Really looking more and more likely it'll be enough to get another wave of rain late Thanksgiving day into Friday/Saturday depending on how fast it kicks out
 
Gfs and cmc are vastly different gfs phases more into the leading trough so what's left behind shears and doesn't do much while the cmc phases less so there's decent amplitude to the trailer and we get a 2nd significant rain event when with the trailer shearing.

That pattern the next week oof good luck. Trough axis trying to load to the west will excited the SER but numerous cold vortices rolling across the US/Can border well keep pressing fronts south. Easy to either be 72 or 38 in that pattern and see why the eps members have snow blips.

No matter what our dry period should be coming to an end. Good time to get your pre emergent out for coverage through early spring. Winter weeds that haven't really had enough water to germinate at going to go crazy
 
Gfs and cmc are vastly different gfs phases more into the leading trough so what's left behind shears and doesn't do much while the cmc phases less so there's decent amplitude to the trailer and we get a 2nd significant rain event when with the trailer shearing.

That pattern the next week oof good luck. Trough axis trying to load to the west will excited the SER but numerous cold vortices rolling across the US/Can border well keep pressing fronts south. Easy to either be 72 or 38 in that pattern and see why the eps members have snow blips.

No matter what our dry period should be coming to an end. Good time to get your pre emergent out for coverage through early spring. Winter weeds that haven't really had enough water to germinate at going to go crazy
Very different solutions coming out of next weekend between them as well. The GFS gets cold building up in Canada but it never really gets tapped into…the coolest air to reach the southeast is basically average temperatures for the end of November. The CMC on the other absolutely unloads the Arctic air into the Northern Plains as many areas see their first sun zero temperatures of the season… it’s more of a glancing show for the southeast but it would be enough to see many of us get down in the teens and lower 20s for lows across the Carolinas northern GA, Tennessee and Virginia
 
Very different solutions coming out of next weekend between them as well. The GFS gets cold building up in Canada but it never really gets tapped into…the coolest air to reach the southeast is basically average temperatures for the end of November. The CMC on the other absolutely unloads the Arctic air into the Northern Plains as many areas see their first sun zero temperatures of the season… it’s more of a glancing show for the southeast but it would be enough to see many of us get down in the teens and lower 20s for lows across the Carolinas northern GA, Tennessee and Virginia
I think we are probably far enough north that normal to below should be the theme with occasional warm days ahead of fronts. I just don't see a great catalyst to drive arctic cold well south but obviously the cmc says otherwise
 
I think we are probably far enough north that normal to below should be the theme with occasional warm days ahead of fronts. I just don't see a great catalyst to drive arctic cold well south but obviously the cmc says otherwise
I agree. Let’s keep in mind that the CMC was also most adamant about cold over Thanksgiving when it was in the 8-10 day range and has obviously backed way off as other models have.
 
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