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Pattern November 2023

metwannabe said:
16.3, When you have a cold air mass in place., and optimal radiation like last night. Models are always way off with low temps
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Update: dropped .3 more before the sun came up, 16 on the nose lol. Mid teens in November with no snow on the ground is dang impressive, heck mid teens of late any month is impressive
 
weather bubba said:
The low at my house this morning was 22.1 degrees. It was a hard freeze and was close to what the old timers around here used to call hog killing weather. Farmers used to kill and process pigs on cold days like this.
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We’re taking a couple hogs to Sumter this morning for processing. Fitting
 
Day 4 with ice on the cars here but that should end tomorrow with rain moving in... Not as much snow north of here this time
 
NWS called for 23 IMBY, got down to 30 then back up to 33. Don’t think we make it down to the forecast low
 
Chazwin said:
Bottomed out at 29 here… GSP was 5 degrees to cold yesterday morning and 6 degrees to cold this morning
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I'm to the point where whatever my forecast low is, I add a 2-3 degrees to my expectations. Thankfully though that doesn't seem to apply to when there's a winter storm. NWS seems to get pretty darn close to the surface temp during a storm. Odd, but my observation. No idea why the distinction.
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm to the point where whatever my forecast low is, I add a 2-3 degrees to my expectations. Thankfully though that doesn't seem to apply to when there's a winter storm. NWS seems to get pretty darn close to the surface temp during a storm. Odd, but my observation. No idea why the distinction.
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Yeah, GSP seems normally does really well with temperatures in my location which is what makes the last couple mornings surprising. This morning it made a little more since because the clouds moved a while earlier than expected which held temps up, but yesterday morning they had gone a good 5 degrees or so below the coldest guidance (I’m at the point of not ever considering temperatures on the CMC with how bad it’s cold bias is).
 
25-16-26 last 3 nights here, last night would've been colder but it was 25 at 11:30 pm, then temps rose to 29 by midnight, actually rose to 34 by 4 am before crashing back to 27 just before sunrise (felt a little breeze this morning I guess that kept temps in check last night). Times are boring when I can give that much pbp on overnight temps Lol
 
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