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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Chazwin said:
It’s not really that simple. The MJO has been in low amp for a while now and it looks like it’s headed for COD in about 10 days. Also remember that the MJO was in great phases last winter from about mid January on and things still stayed very mild.
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When it got into higher amp 3, we got that three day ice/sleet storm end of January early February here
 
Our met is saying warm through the 10th then "all bets are off" but like I said too I'm seeing some very bullish winter forecasts here. People are predicting more snow in December than we got in total last winter ?
 
I'm very intrigued by the upcoming period of -NAO that's showing up in early December.

El Niño winters that produce -NAOs (or even neutral ones for that matter) in December often end up being rather cold and snowy over the eastern US.

Really feels like a lot of my initial thoughts & expectations for this winter (esp early on) have been turned on its head to some degree, in a very positive way
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm very intrigued by the upcoming period of -NAO that's showing up in early December.

El Niño winters that produce -NAOs (or even neutral ones for that matter) in December often end up being rather cold and snowy over the eastern US.

Really feels like a lot of my initial thoughts & expectations for this winter (esp early on) have been turned on its head to some degree, in a very positive way
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I remember you put up a chart a couple weeks ago that showed that strong El Niños often have a colder than average period over the first days of December. Then things as expected go mild after that. I wonder if we might be able to cash in on something as the pattern breaks down… something that we often see.
 
Brent said:
I mean just because its warm doesn't mean there won't be cold days shrugs and who knows there's gonna be a snowstorm not far away this weekend when it's been pretty warm this month
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Yeah. I would say that February 2014 is a great example of that for my area. I finished that month 2 degrees above average, but had a total of 11 inches of snow from 2 storms in 3 days during a week long cold spell in the middle of the month. The rest of the month was well above average. I still think that when December is said and done a lot of us will be 2-3 degrees above average just based on how strong El Niños tend to play out. However I can’t overlook the indicators that are showing in the teleconnections for the 1st week of the month…-NAO, -AO, slightly +PNA, and low amp MJO moving through phases 2-3 and possibly in the COD. I said the other day that if it were the end of December going into New Year’s, I would think very likely that the southeast would have some winter storm chances… it would be harder here early in the month, but certainly not impossible.
 
Stevo24 said:
What do you mean by that. That it usually repeats itself before winter is over?
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Most of the El Nino winters that produced a mean -NAO in December eventually turned into big, blockbuster winters for this board.

Some examples:

1939-40, 1963-64, 1968-69, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1987-88, 2002-03, & 2009-10

NOAA 20CRv3 NAO Index (1836-2015)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most of the El Nino winters that produced a mean -NAO in December eventually turned into big, blockbuster winters for this board.

Some examples:

1939-40, 1963-64, 1968-69, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1987-88, 2002-03, & 2009-10

NOAA 20CRv3 NAO Index (1836-2015)
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Yikes! Those are some epic analog years in there.

I still remember the 63 New Year's Eve snow in New Orleans lol.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most of the El Nino winters that produced a mean -NAO in December eventually turned into big, blockbuster winters for this board.

Some examples:

1939-40, 1963-64, 1968-69, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1987-88, 2002-03, & 2009-10

NOAA 20CRv3 NAO Index (1836-2015)
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Those are some seriously big dog winters. 1939-40 sticks out speaking for Atlanta because January 1940 was the month/year they saw their biggest snowfall on record (just over 10 inches). To this day I don’t think Atlanta has surpassed that number. (Airport really got screwed during Superstorm ‘93 with 4 inches) Which is kinda pathetic when you compare that to other southern cities in the decades since that have had higher snowfall totals from a single storm. Hell, I think Macon got around 17-18 inches from the Feb ‘73 winter storm.?
 
If I’m not mistaken, most those winters Webber mentions had a December with average to above average temps … so warm December is t really a bad thing . Fact seems like me cold December never leads to a cold n snowy January and February
 
tennessee storm said:
If I’m not mistaken, most those winters Webber mentions had a December with average to above average temps … so warm December is t really a bad thing . Fact seems like me cold December never leads to a cold n snowy January and February
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Never say never. It's happened before. The 70s winters are legendary for a reason because they were epic and probably won't be repeated for a long time
 
tennessee storm said:
If I’m not mistaken, most those winters Webber mentions had a December with average to above average temps … so warm December is t really a bad thing . Fact seems like me cold December never leads to a cold n snowy January and February
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Itryatgolf said:
Never say never. It's happened before. The 70s winters are legendary for a reason because they were epic and probably won't be repeated for a long time
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Well to be honest with you , it’s been a long time lol
 
tennessee storm said:
Nothing wrong with an average December. Things start get into motion later December
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Id imagine with the initial ridge trying to flare under the -NAO in response to heights dropping out west, and the active STJ, we’re gonna get a Dixie set up soon with a souped up southern stream wave and a nice boundary somewhere separating polar pacific air, and air straight out the gulf
 
tennessee storm said:
Winter s. In the mid 70s we’re totally epic around here …. Big snows
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Big in the Carolinas too..
Several big storms yearly back then,
Also true Miller A's.
When it snowed in Dallas it meant ATL was going to get snow also,
Areas N of these metros were Golden.
The Glory years...
Through 88 maybe 93???
 
Billypg70 said:
Big in the Carolinas too..
Several big storms yearly back then,
Also true Miller A's.
When it snowed in Dallas it meant ATL was going to get snow also,
Areas N of these metros were Golden.
The Glory years...
Through 88 maybe 93???
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Forums would be incredibly bogged down all day and night. Lots of zanex needed ?
 
I notice the GEFS continues to shorten the early December mild period. Roughly a 5-day period, the 2nd to the 7th at or above normal.
 
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