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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Rain Cold

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2017-2023 Supporter
Jan 5, 2017
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Raleigh, NC
Ask and ye shall receive!

Going to be another stinker for the SE. Probably end up +2 - +5 for D-M with AN precip. Why? Nino, plus whatever the background reason for the parade of wintertime -PNAs, cool upper-midwest patterns, routine MJO P3-6s, and neutral/+NAO regimes that we've been stuck in for a decade.

Maybe that dude on YouTube in the hoodie who loves cold easts and winter battle zones thinks differently, though.

Anyway, have at it!
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With a pumped up southern jet , all y’all need is one big arctic shot to meat up with the Pineapple Express and then you’re golden!
I really don’t know what to expect up here, since my first 3 winters here were La Nina’s, so will be interesting to see. I’ve seen averages for above normal temps and below normal snowfall for Ninos here, but we will see
Analogs for this upcoming winter aren't too shabby.
The last 3 occurrences of a strong Nino following a multi-year Nina were 1957-58, 1982-83, and 2009-10.

57-58 and 09-10 is among our snowiest winters ever

82-83 not so much although still way better than last year
1982-83 was nasty here in upstate SC A lot of snow to freezing rain and ending as rain events here, but we did get between 10-11 inches of pure snow on 3-24-1983. 2009-10 was not so good here as we basically got glanced by the big events in my backyard and completely missed the big one before Christmas 2009.
First post since March. I can smell the shorter days approaching.? one of the most uneventful springs/summers since I've been here. Almost no thunder. But the temps have been great!

we cruising for a strong El Nino. I hope that doesn't blast us with too much southern energy. But hey I'm down for a change of pace after what 3 Nina's winters in a row?
I know it's still early, but ideally we want central based niño and -qbo to have a chance at colder here. It definitely just takes one winter storm to put us over normals