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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Chazwin said:
Not really. That map is taking into account what will probably be an overall quite mild December. Also with the active STJ developing, you can expect to see many days this winter that sees highs a couple degrees below average, but clouds and moisture holds lows up a good bit above normal…. 2019-2020 is a great example of that.
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Not to mention it's easy to run a sneaky positive temp mean in a nino if you choke off the arctic source and repeatedly get rain or cloudy days. The sensible effect is cool bc days are in that 50 degree range but if nights are only 40-45 bc of clouds or rain you can stack up loads of +4-8 days but never "torch"
 
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SD said:
Not to mention it's easy to run a sneaky positive temp mean in a nino if you choke off the arctic source and repeatedly get rain or cloudy days. The sensible effect is cool bc days are in that 50 degree range but if nights are only 40-45 bc of clouds or rain you can stack up loads of +4-8 days but never "torch"
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Exactly and this is basically why the coolest temperatures in the continental US compared to average in an El Niño set up all the eastern Gulf Coast and Florida. The STJ sets up long stretches of cloudy and wet weather that will produce cool days but relatively mild nights.
 
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NoSnowATL said:
Above Avg snowfall for Florida this winter. Well my Avg is 0.0 so Lets go!.
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I agree. But they did talk about their maps showing higher chances of snow, not totals. They even gave example of if Miami normally had a 1/1000 chance, it could be more like 1/950 this year. I actually like this way of forecasting, especially for places like the southeast where one storm could make or break a season.
 
bouncycorn said:
Might get some action during the first half of next week (Nov 26 - Nov 30) based on some proprietary experimental ML/AI guidance. Hell of a pattern during that timeframe, not sure if it'll be cold enough yet though.
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Definitely intrigued here. I've seen comparisons locally to previous patterns that produced here
 
bouncycorn said:
Might get some action during the first half of next week (Nov 26 - Nov 30) based on some proprietary experimental ML/AI guidance. Hell of a pattern during that timeframe, not sure if it'll be cold enough yet though.
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I think someone in the SE is going to get an early snow this winter.
 
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