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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

My first one of these and sure to be wrong :) This winter is hard to gage in the snow aspect. I think we’ll have the moisture so we’ll have some shots. And it usually only takes one to make the average, even for me up here in valleys of WNC. Given the most recent strong/super Ninos 97-98 and 15-16, my concern we’re stuck in a repeating -PNA pattern and my limited understanding the PDO, IOD and AAM are not in favorable states, my guess would be this is a top 20-25 warmest winter. I wouldn’t be shocked if December is top 10 warmest. I do think we’ll get that “one” and most of us hit average or a little over thanks to a window in January. We’ll get more chances here in WNC but I think those chances will be the NC/TN line and up into the N Mountains.
 
SimeonNC said:
Here's my predictions for a bunch of NC cities.

Boone: 2-3ft+

Beech Mtn: 6ft+

Asheville: 1ft-18"

Hickory: 10" - 1ft

Greensboro: 6-10"

Raleigh: 3-8" (Less south of 85, more North)

NW Charlotte Metro: 5 - 9"

Charlotte and SW Metro: 2 - 6"

Edit: I forgot the average snowfalls for Boone and Beech Mtn and underestimated them, so I revised the forecast.
Click to expand...
I'm just gonna re-do this entire forecast and add more locales/details. I made the quoted post while at work and rushed it.


Boone: 36"-48"

Beech Mtn: 72"+

Mount Mitchell: 100"+

Asheville: 12"-18"

Hickory: 6-14"

Greensboro: 6-14"

Statesville: 5-12"

Raleigh Metro: 2-5" SE of 85, 4-8" NW of 85.

Charlotte Metro: 5-9" NW of 85(Huntersville, Cornelius, ect.), 2-6" Charlotte proper and SE of 85(Rock Hill, Rockingham, ect.)

Upstate SC: 1-4" SE of 85, 3-6" NW of 85.

The coastal plain of NC is too volatile for me to confidently forecast, though I do think there is a potential for them to even outdo favored Piedmont and lower Foothills locales with the right storm track. Overall I have the biggest confidence in the mountains having a very good winter, with my confidence lowering with the elevation. Temperature forecasts are moot at this point since winters will likely continue to be "above average" for the foreseeable future for reasons I will not mention in this post but should be easily figured out. I do think if there is a year for the Piedmont/CAD areas to have a major ice storm this would be the year, we nearly had it in 2022 but we were saved by a thinner than expected warm nose. As I said in the past I do think there is a decent chance for a HECS due to the warm ENSO state and the warm Atlantic SSTs, which would also lead to the classic I-85 split.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Here’s my stab:
GSP 8”
RDU 5”
CLT 6”
TULSA 18”
JONESVILLE 4”
ATL 3”
BNA 6”
DBQ 48”
CONCORD 8”
FUQUAY VARINA 7”
Seasonal snowfall thoughts from Mack
Click to expand...

If we get 18 inches I may die ?

It must have been something here in 2009-2011 two back to back years over 20 inches and a blizzard both winters
 
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Ok folks here's my snowfall prediction totals for some southern cities oh and by the way I may have had to much beer while typing this LMAO ?

Atlanta 10-20"
Phenix city 8-15"
Birmingham 10-20"
Nashville 18-25"
Charlotte 12-22"
Raleigh 15-25"
Macon 8-15"
Jackson 8-15"
Montgomery 8-15"
Tulsa 15-25"
Dallas 10-20"
Memphis 15-25"
Columbia 10-20"
Huntsville 12-22"
 
I’ll take a stab at it.

Asheville - 4”
Atlanta - 0”
Birmingham - 0”
Boone - 14”
Charlotte - 0”
Chattanooga - T
Columbia - 0”
Durham - .5”
Greensboro - 2”
Greenville - T
Huntsville - T
Knoxville - 4”
Nashville- 3”
Raleigh - T
 
Snowmiser33 said:
Ok folks here's my snowfall prediction totals for some southern cities oh and by the way I may have had to much beer while typing this LMAO ?

Atlanta 10-20"
Phenix city 8-15"
Birmingham 10-20"
Nashville 18-25"
Charlotte 12-22"
Raleigh 15-25"
Macon 8-15"
Jackson 8-15"
Montgomery 8-15"
Tulsa 15-25"
Dallas 10-20"
Memphis 15-25"
Columbia 10-20"
Huntsville 12-22"
Click to expand...
Lmao
 
It's my time to shine! I can't rain with the big boys during summer. But if it's going to snow in SC outside the highest peaks it's a wrap I get more than any! Wait a minute, scratch that, I forgot CAE and the coastal plain is more prone to huge storms than me. Fml ?‍♂️
 
Snowmiser33 said:
Ok folks here's my snowfall prediction totals for some southern cities oh and by the way I may have had to much beer while typing this LMAO ?

Atlanta 10-20"
Phenix city 8-15"
Birmingham 10-20"
Nashville 18-25"
Charlotte 12-22"
Raleigh 15-25"
Macon 8-15"
Jackson 8-15"
Montgomery 8-15"
Tulsa 15-25"
Dallas 10-20"
Memphis 15-25"
Columbia 10-20"
Huntsville 12-22"
Click to expand...

At least 15-25 is closer to our average of 9 than most of these ?
 
You all have probably heard a lot about month-to-month temperature variability in El Niño winters, but what about the finer scale details?

Well, here's what a weighted 3-week moving average composite "relative" temperature anomaly looks like for *every* moderate-strong El Niño since 1876. (Note: "East-based" El Niños and El Niños accompanied by a +IOD were weighted more in this composite).

Most of you are probably already aware that strong El Niño Decembers tend to be rather mild in the Eastern US. This chart actually shows that these anomalously mild conditions tend to be favored more in mid-late December/closer to Christmas. Early in December, there's not much signal. Of course, you'll also notice that the first 2/3rds or so of February tend to be the coldest (& snowiest!) parts of an El Niño winter!


Relative Temp Anomaly NE US El Nino Analogs 2023-24.jpeg


Here's the time series in the context of uncertainty (approximated as spread) between the 15 sites used to create this graph.

The warm periods in mid-late December and even mid-late January are significant. The mid-late January warm-up is more prevalent over the northern US/closer to New England, hardly noticeable over the southern US in the grand scheme of things.

Also notice the cool-down, centered around the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February, is very significant, in fact, it's the most prominent feature on this entire chart.

Relative Temp Anomaly With Uncertainty NE US El Nino Analogs 2023-24.jpeg
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Asheville - T
Atlanta - ?
Birmingham - NA
Boone - 8”
Charlotte - no
Chattanooga - T
Columbia - lol
Durham - no
Greensboro - no
Greenville - rain
Huntsville - dry anafront
Knoxville - 1”
Nashville- 1.5”
Raleigh - rain
Click to expand...
Ha ha....at least I get rain. It's getting to the point that's priority...
 
Webberweather53 said:
You all have probably heard a lot about month-to-month temperature variability in El Niño winters, but what about the finer scale details?

Well, here's what a weighted 3-week moving average composite "relative" temperature anomaly looks like for *every* moderate-strong El Niño since 1876. (Note: "East-based" El Niños and El Niños accompanied by a +IOD were weighted more in this composite).

Most of you are probably already aware that strong El Niño Decembers tend to be rather mild in the Eastern US. This chart actually shows that these anomalously mild conditions tend to be favored more in mid-late December/closer to Christmas. Early in December, there's not much signal. Of course, you'll also notice that the first 2/3rds or so of February tend to be the coldest (& snowiest!) parts of an El Niño winter!


View attachment 137905


Here's the time series in the context of uncertainty (approximated as spread) between the 15 sites used to create this graph.

The warm periods in mid-late December and even mid-late January are significant. The mid-late January warm-up is more prevalent over the northern US/closer to New England, hardly noticeable over the southern US in the grand scheme of things.

Also notice the cool-down, centered around the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February, is very significant, in fact, it's the most prominent feature on this entire chart.

View attachment 137906
Click to expand...
The January spike is interesting, thanks for the insight! Feb or bust!
 
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