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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Cad Wedge NC said:
So, what we gather from the data is this, if it doesn't snow in January, then February and March are off the table as well. Interesting that Webber is going against data that is 150 years old. Bet he is banking on us getting some snow that last week in January.
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Around the 20th book it!!!
 
SD said:
I stop looking for snow around Thanksgiving and get the garden planted by Christmas
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Hey man I hate to break it to you but if you are doing greens you really shouldn’t plant any later than October if you want to be picking collards in December! Smh. No wonder your yard always looks so dead
 
LickWx said:
Hey man I hate to break it to you but if you are doing greens you really shouldn’t plant any later than October if you want to be picking collards in December! Smh. No wonder your yard always looks so dead
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The creasy greens are already coming up. It’s usually late Jan before they do
 
CaryWx said:
So I guess the SSWE is just a pipe dream now?
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Yes and doesnt matter if mjo is in phase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8, cod. For years its always an aurgument for whatever phase it is in verse whatever background state, not favorable. Seriously the needle moves so much,dont even know what to root for mjo wise.
It always boils down to timing , luck. Odds in our favor before the tullips come up this year.
 
I’m perfectly fine with the weather we have. Enjoy what you have now because it could be worse.
 
CaryWx said:
So I guess the SSWE is just a pipe dream now?
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It happenining but it doesn't look like the spv will split instead it'll just be bumped around/elongated/weakened. Better than it spinning like a top over the pole but really takes a little shine off my late Jan and Feb expectations. It'll be interesting to see if another warming takes shape around week 2/3 which for our location wouldn't be terrible for mid to late feb
 
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Here's another nice graph, but now showing 3-week moving average "major" snowstorm count for the mid-Atlantic & NE US for moderate-strong El Niño & La Niña winters only.

We don't usually flip the script towards cold/snowy in Nino winters like this til about the last week of January.

I.e. the clock doesn't really start ticking to score big dogs in winters like this til about January 25th or so.

People need to take a chill pill.

ENSO_Snowfall_3-Week_Moving_Count Mid-Atlantic & NE US.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
don’t think many want to hear this, but later week 1-week 2 of jan and maybe even a little further past that, it doesn’t look pretty pattern wise. Tropical forcing looks to slow significantly for a while in the Indian Ocean due to the weakening +IOD, which will give it more oomph as well. (basically the IO losing influence from the El Niño). The MJO slowing over the Indian Ocean for the next week and beyond is gonna favor a retracted pacific jet past next week and the semi-permanent Okhotsk low, which favors GOAK ridging/-PNA. Given the HLB/-NAO, the SE ridge might be put at bay at times, but it probably will show up at times. It’s honestly a pretty nina esque look
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I would really love to figure out why this tends to happen. It seems to me that we regularly default to a nina like Aleutian Ridge/Western trough H5 pattern no matter the enso state the last decade.

This year, it's already being discussed around the web that, although this is a strong nino, there's competing forcing that mutes the enso and has shown nina like forcing. So why is that? Is it the overall hot oceans? Northern pacific heat causing ridging there? Constant indian ocean heat? This warming of the oceans has me thinking that perhaps we may be living in a time period that has no analog past the last 10 years or so. And that what we're seeing is the new normal.

 
Billypg70 said:
Timing is the only Holy Grail of Winter Weather in the SE !
Timing is and always will be more crucial than any pattern.
I'll die on that hill...
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can remember good ole winters before climate change came...it wasnt hard get good snows then, just matter of how many vs will it snow now these days.
 
SnowNiner said:
I would really love to figure out why this tends to happen. It seems to me that we regularly default to a nina like Aleutian Ridge/Western trough H5 pattern no matter the enso state the last decade.

This year, it's already being discussed around the web that, although this is a strong nino, there's competing forcing that mutes the enso and has shown nina like forcing. So why is that? Is it the overall hot oceans? Northern pacific heat causing ridging there? Constant indian ocean heat? This warming of the oceans has me thinking that perhaps we may be living in a time period that has no analog past the last 10 years or so. And that what we're seeing is the new normal.

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In case you missed this post from 11 days ago.


Webberweather53 said:
The same physical processes working to retract the Pacific Jet Stream & generate Western Canada blocking/+PNA in early January will also try to drop a mean trough over the western half of the CONUS as we approach mid-January.

Although the prototypical -PNA pattern will be significantly muted & smeared in this case for obvious ENSO-related reasons (i.e. I wouldn't expect a particularly persistent or intense SE US ridge here (if at all)).... ...this large-scale signal is definitely legit, esp. given the forthcoming collapse of the +IOD that'll help enhance the expression of Indian Ocean-related convective + downstream circulation anomalies.

This is the kind of pattern we need to see to restore the snow pack over the northern tier of the US going into our prime window for winter weather (late Jan-early Feb)


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Webberweather53 said:
In case you missed this post from 11 days ago.
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Right, for this year based on the IOD this was expected as your post mentioned, thanks. My question is more comprehensive; every year, some cycle competes with nino status and/or defaults to a GOA ridge/western trough. Why is that? The last 10 years, we don't seem to have stubborn eastern troughs, it's always out west for one reason or another. Just looking for an underlying issue that's causing what we're seeing every year. Constant high SST's in the northern pacific, Indian Ocean? Bigger question, probably not easy answers, but I think whatever it is it's what we're really fighting against each year.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's another nice graph, but now showing 3-week moving average "major" snowstorm count for the mid-Atlantic & NE US for moderate-strong El Niño & La Niña winters only.

We don't usually flip the script towards cold/snowy in Nino winters like this til about the last week of January.

I.e. the clock doesn't really start ticking to score big dogs in winters like this til about January 25th or so.

People need to take a chill pill.

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That analysis is for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. What about the southeast and deep south?
 
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