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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
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I've been a pretty big fan of a gradual step down through the cold season. My preliminary thoughts were +5-7 for Dec, +2-4 for Jan, -1-3 for Feb, -2-4 for March. That said I'm not sure about those with what's out there now and would really want to reevaluate before a final forecast
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Itryatgolf
Member
griteater
Member
Did he state that to you? I think you said you’ve had some dialog with him before. Reason I ask is that his 100 day low pass tool looks coldest / most wintry from late Jan thru Feb
Itryatgolf
Member
He mentioned on Twitter about December and March the other day, perhaps he meant December and March being the warmest? I guess I was incorrect
That lowpass for Jan looks a lot like 2010
griteater
Member
Meteo France 3-run trend for February
Already putting all our hope in Feb huhMeteo France 3-run trend for February
I miss the front loaded winters of the 80s! When we’d get a white Christmas’s every winter! ?
jeremyt
Member
I’m not sure where the panic of it doesn’t snow in December comes from honestly. I can count on one hand the snows I’ve seen in December. Late January through early March has always been the sweet spot for NC east of the mountains. I get being pessimistic with recent history but it’s somewhat ridiculous.
Exactly…I could understand it if we were in a La Niña like the last several years where we know that chances of something after mid January are greatly reduced. However being in an El Niño, I pretty much expect that December isn’t going to produce. Have there been exceptions? Sure December 1997 and 2009 come to mind, but those were exceptions and not the general rule. I personally think there’s a higher chance that we have a December like 2015 than there is of us seeing snow during the month.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The +IOD correlation pattern is almost a perfect match for current global SSTs.
When you regress this SST pattern onto 500mb heights over N America, you see the classic SW US troughing - SE Canada/eastern US ridge pattern that is so common in moderate-strong east-based El Niño winters. The +IOD is also going to suppress a lot of MJO activity over the Indo-Pacific region for the first portion of winter, providing us with less breaks from this pattern in December.
I don't really see how we avoid this in December.
When you regress this SST pattern onto 500mb heights over N America, you see the classic SW US troughing - SE Canada/eastern US ridge pattern that is so common in moderate-strong east-based El Niño winters. The +IOD is also going to suppress a lot of MJO activity over the Indo-Pacific region for the first portion of winter, providing us with less breaks from this pattern in December.
I don't really see how we avoid this in December.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The JMA, CFSv2, and ECMWF are all already latching onto this pattern in weeks 3-4 & beyond.
I just mentioned that I thought it was more likely that the southeast would have a repeat of December 2015 than it was to have snow during the month. This makes that look very possible.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The latest C3S 500mb forecast for Dec-Feb compared to the 500mb composite for moderate-strong "East-based" El Niños since 1876. December and February are very close matches overall, while the January forecast (as usual for ENSO) exhibits the greatest variance from the historical composite.
I suspect there may be an MJO or Kelvin Wave-related forcing collapse of the +IOD that spurs about this discrepancy & allows the large-scale circulation pattern to get shaken up.
I suspect there may be an MJO or Kelvin Wave-related forcing collapse of the +IOD that spurs about this discrepancy & allows the large-scale circulation pattern to get shaken up.
Alaska's largest city declares 'snow emergency' after record snowfall piles up on back-to-back days..
A winter storm dropped record snowfall amounts in Anchorage, Alaska, with some areas outside of Anchorage proper receiving more than 2 feet of snowfall in just two days.The largest city in Alaska broke its daily snowfall record on Wednesday when 9 inches of snow fell in 24 hours. For context, the previous record for Nov. 8 was 7.3 inches set in 1982. Another 8.2 inches piled up on Thursday, which also broke the daily record of 7.1 inches set on Nov. 9, 1956. That brought Anchorage's two-day total to 17.2 inches of snow.
By late Thursday, Anchorage had a 21-inch snow depth, or the total amount of snow on the ground. This was Anchorage's greatest snow depth for so early in the season, according to Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider. Already, 26.6 inches of snow has fallen in Anchorage this season, which is 17.5 inches above the average snowfall to date for Nov. 9.
Snow forecast for NC, mountains are always the hardest spot, map shows Boone in the 12-18” sector but most likely they are gonna get a foot more then that, especially during a Nino winter, but overall, a average to slightly above normal year for snow in NC, primarily the second half of winter 
All I want to know is, will it be cold and snowy in Tahoe in mid JAN? LOL
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SimeonNC
Member
Honestly you went kinda conservative for the mountains imo.
SimeonNC
Member
Here's my predictions for a bunch of NC cities.
Boone: 2-3ft+
Beech Mtn: 6ft+
Asheville: 1ft-18"
Hickory: 10" - 1ft
Greensboro: 6-10"
Raleigh: 3-8" (Less south of 85, more North)
NW Charlotte Metro: 5 - 9"
Charlotte and SW Metro: 2 - 6"
Edit: I forgot the average snowfalls for Boone and Beech Mtn and underestimated them, so I revised the forecast.
Boone: 2-3ft+
Beech Mtn: 6ft+
Asheville: 1ft-18"
Hickory: 10" - 1ft
Greensboro: 6-10"
Raleigh: 3-8" (Less south of 85, more North)
NW Charlotte Metro: 5 - 9"
Charlotte and SW Metro: 2 - 6"
Edit: I forgot the average snowfalls for Boone and Beech Mtn and underestimated them, so I revised the forecast.
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