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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

2cnd day in a row watching the GEFs and CFS at H5 for late Nov into Dec. All you can do. Love seeing that west coast ridging constant. The theme is the air from western Canada comes in an out. Fast moving air masses/ more zonal without Atlantic blocking. Air from western Canada is usually good, but that air will be warmer than it normally is. My guess is we will see-saw to death between slightly BN -Slightly AN temp wise every 48-72 hours and the mean will smooth out to about average for the first half December. Its nice to see constant ridging being advertised between Alaska and the west coast. Take all this with a boulder of salt, as the GEFs and CFS cant be trusted this far out, but its all you have to monitor.
 
Judah Cohen, The Great weather Prophet (I kid). Is now on board with the PV staying wrapped up, stronger as we kickoff winter. Thats a no win for us if it happens.

"
I consider that we are still at a
crossroads where the PV can
begin to weaken and we turn to a
colder pattern or the PV
strengthens and we turn to a
milder pattern. I thought that the
atmosphere was leaning more
towards the first path. But now I
am thinking that might have been
a head fake and the atmosphere is
now leaning towards the milder
path probably at least through the
end of the year. "

"I think if there was any more doubt
about which path the atmosphere
is likely to choose, the doubt
should be put to rest. I like to say,
"the trend is your friend" and in
that vein no denying the trend in
the polar cap geopotential height
anomalies (PCHs) forecast (see
Figure v) - it is towards a stronger
polar vortex and an absence of
high latitude blocking both of
which overwhelmingly favor
widespread mild temperatures
certainly in the short- and mid-
term and possibly the long-term."
 
The past times ole Judah has forecasted seasonal PV disruption and- AO, only to see the opposite unfold has become countless.
But write it down, he will nail this forecast. If the opposite of his most recent forecast would happen, we would be headed to glory.
 
NCSNOW said:
East based el nino are a harbinger for mild SE winters. If webb is correct and Im hearing him right, this is a red flag for me. Big difference in west based verse east based mod - strong el ninos. I am no fan of these.

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This is why I’ve believed that we will end up above average on temps this winter. You can’t overlook what the history of a strong east based El Niño does. Now it’s important to remember that a good bit of what I think will be 1-3F above average could end up being in overnight lows being held up due to cloud cover and higher dewpoints from an active STJ that’s also a staple of strong east based El Niño.
 
Chazwin said:
This is why I’ve believed that we will end up above average on temps this winter. You can’t overlook what the history of a strong east based El Niño does. Now it’s important to remember that a good bit of what I think will be 1-3F above average could end up being in overnight lows being held up due to cloud cover and higher dewpoints from an active STJ that’s also a staple of strong east based El Niño.
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I hope we can squeeze an opportunity or two in between, one can only hope
 
tennessee storm said:
Just think the chance is going be even narrower than before. Not a fan of strong east base ninos . Why I can’t get excited
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One thing that I’ve pointed out since the summer is that even though strong east based El Niño typically will come out a little above average temperature wise in the southeast, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t still a few opportunities for winter storms. For example, KGSO and KCLT both have their highest average snowfall seasons in years that have a strong El Niño. Obviously one reason is that there is typically going to be plenty of moisture thanks to an active STJ.
 
Itryatgolf said:
What's interesting is Dr. Roundy from UOA said that he believes DEC and March may be the coldest months due to -AAM background this year.
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I just don’t think it’s ever likely that December is going to be the coldest month in an El Niño winter. Even in El Nino Decembers that have had impressive cold spells in them, 1992, 1997, and 2009, those years still had long stretches of mild weather for the east. Possibly March is going to be on the chilly side this year as the Nino will be weakening and the ENSO looks to be headed back to a La Niña, but I still think longest stretches of cooler temperatures compared to average will be from mid January to late February
 
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