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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Webberweather53 said:
Here's the same CDF graph I made yesterday, but now for our neighbors to the north in the mid-Atlantic states.

The backloaded trend is even more prominent there.

A whopping 75% of major snowstorms from south-central VA to NYC occur after January 20th during moderate-strong Nino winters.

View attachment 139230
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That is a crazy dead period from Dec 20 to around Jan 2nd.
 
Thought this was interesting from a historical perspective:

"The single largest snowfall in South Carolina history, when measured over a one-day period, occurred on February 15, 1902, in Greenville County, and on February 10, 1973, in both Dorchester and Aiken Counties, with each event recording 15 inches of snow【6†source】. For a longer duration, the biggest snowfall on record in South Carolina was in Greenville County, with a three-day total of 2 feet, 4.9 inches on February 18, 1969【7†source】. Additionally, during the great Blizzard of 1973, which started on February 9th and lasted three full days, the midlands of South Carolina were hardest hit, receiving an overwhelming 24 inches of snow【8†source】."

I guess I'm implying that the largest snowfall from a one-day period and overall largest snowfall in South Carolina were both in February.
 
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Somebody in the deep south will see flakes by the end of January. Such a shame there's a few small lows trying to pop next week. Really could have been 2010 again if the cold was there. Oh well keep the faith guys.
 
SNOWMANN said:
Somebody in the deep south will see flakes by the end of January. Such a shame there's a few small lows trying to pop next week. Really could have been 2010 again if the cold was there. Oh well keep the faith guys.
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Its like 3 taking perfect tracks next 10 days, energy so strung out, but the surface cold is meh, despite good 850s. Be watching Jan 12th time frame, see if this has legs. What we need to flush out all this pac jet soupy airmass off NA. This would not only do that, but cover canada,lakes,midwest with a snowpack. Fits the bill of webbs timetable, kinda kick start the progression.

1703772451123.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Its like 3 taking perfect tracks next 10 days, energy so strung out, but the surface cold is meh, despite good 850s. Be watching Jan 12th time frame, see if this has legs. What we need to flush out all this pac jet soupy airmass off NA. This would not only do that, but cover canada,lakes,midwest with a snowpack. Fits the bill of webbs timetable, kinda kick start the progression.

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Agree 100% man. I've been watching the period around the 12th. Ole goofy has been decent this year at sniffing out big lows in the LR.
 
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That’s quite the change in the northern stream energy on the GFS for the Jan 7th threat. Goes from nothing to a New England snowstorm. With that type of trend it makes me wonder if we can get a piece of this system as well
 
The ole Lucy pulls the football trick. Reversal getting less likely in the short term in each of the past three runs.
ps2png-worker-commands-757f6bfb4f-c5pkx-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-yxy7yg.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Absolute unicorn anyway IMO. Just keep the vortex weak and disturbed and that'll be fine for us.
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I agree completely and with the AO about to go into to the tank it should stay quite weak. I’ve gotten to look at SSWE’s as a great bonus and a way to shake up things against climo… like what happened in the late January 2009 event, but when the climo of a Nino says that our best chances of winter weather occurs after 1/20, I don’t think it would make much of a difference.
 
Now that I am home, I have some stats in front of me that are valid for KCLT. There's been five winters(at least since official recordkeeping began in 1878-1879) where there has been no snow through Nov/Dec/Jan:

1900-1901 - 1"
1910-1911 - 0.1"
1923-1924 - 4.7"
2011-2012 - T
2014-2015 - 3"
2022-2023 - 0"

So as you can tell, there's only one even close to normal winter in the entire mix.
 
weatherfide said:
That's ok. February is planting month and I need to build a fence around my garden. Maples will be in full bloom by 3rd week in February, too. I'm done chasing snow after the first week in Feb.
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I like to give it bout February 17 …. Been my cutoff date chasing winter storms for my area … then bring on my spring severe weather ….
 
BullCityWx said:
Now that I am home, I have some stats in front of me that are valid for KCLT. There's been five winters(at least since official recordkeeping began in 1878-1879) where there has been no snow through Nov/Dec/Jan:

1900-1901 - 1"
1910-1911 - 0.1"
1923-1924 - 4.7"
2011-2012 - T
2014-2015 - 3"
2022-2023 - 0"

So as you can tell, there's only one even close to normal winter in the entire mix.
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Good thing Jan hasn't started yet.
 
weatherfide said:
That's ok. February is planting month and I need to build a fence around my garden. Maples will be in full bloom by 3rd week in February, too. I'm done chasing snow after the first week in Feb.
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You must be planting greens. That’s too early to even plant potatoes. I’m not that much north of you and my ground takes until early May usually to be warm enough for most summer plants. I wasted a lot of rotten corn and okra seeds to discover that.
 
CaryWx said:
Great stats but doesn't really seem to strongly support ninos mean fab febs a whole lot. Seems to be a mixed bag. 6-ninos, 4-neuts, 3-ninas
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I don't have a site that has pre 1950 enso data if someone does I'll expand the window
 
EmersonGA said:
You must be planting greens. That’s too early to even plant potatoes. I’m not that much north of you and my ground takes until early May usually to be warm enough for most summer plants. I wasted a lot of rotten corn and okra seeds to discover that.
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Yes, cool season veggies. You can usually get a crop in before it gets too warm in late spring. They bolt and then we can harvest the seed.
 
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Way out in fantasyland but this the exact progression that everyone needs to hope for in terms of the West Coast trough dump. As systems slide SW to NE that cold slowly progresses east. Then as that cold gets in position hope for a wave to slide through and board wide hit becomes possible. Just have to endure a rainy and warm ridge to get to it.
 
weatherfide said:
Yes, cool season veggies. You can usually get a crop in before it gets too warm in late spring. They bolt and then we can harvest the seed.
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I usually overwinter some garlic. I’ve grown greens but never tried seed saving. I need to do that.
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 139349
Way out in fantasyland but this the exact progression that everyone needs to hope for in terms of the West Coast trough dump. As systems slide SW to NE that cold slowly progresses east. Then as that cold gets in position hope for a wave to slide through and board wide hit becomes possible. Just have to endure a rainy and warm ridge to get to it.
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The surface look one day farther would be encouraging:
1703872080767.png
 
BullCityWx said:
Now that I am home, I have some stats in front of me that are valid for KCLT. There's been five winters(at least since official recordkeeping began in 1878-1879) where there has been no snow through Nov/Dec/Jan:

1900-1901 - 1"
1910-1911 - 0.1"
1923-1924 - 4.7"
2011-2012 - T
2014-2015 - 3"
2022-2023 - 0"

So as you can tell, there's only one even close to normal winter in the entire mix.
Click to expand...
So, what we gather from the data is this, if it doesn't snow in January, then February and March are off the table as well. Interesting that Webber is going against data that is 150 years old. Bet he is banking on us getting some snow that last week in January.
 
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