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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

EPS is no Bueno, most of the members actually look good northern stream wise, but shear out the southern wave, the euro kept it going and almost phased it at the end. It’s a timing pattern that’s for sure

But it’s worth noting, this is one of the best EPS runs for the overall longwave pattern, and probably the coldest run yet. I’m happy with tonight’s runs 8290D1AD-CBEF-4E2D-A7E9-1A8E8E889D8D.pngACC44435-4B30-4146-B2AA-A904AE2647D5.pngE746A69E-EE0F-4D0C-BEB4-A0DB7F275D20.png
 
Safe to say we are working this pattern shift into a period now where it doesn't look like it's going to punk us. Now it's just trying to find a storm. Of course, things can trend a little better or worse as always, but its looking likely now that a shift is on the way. Great model runs overnight into this morning. Ready to rage & also to get hurt.
 
Avalanche said:
The deer are thicker around here this winter, for what it’s worth….where’s Corey the critter guy?
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Yeah… I’d say so. Never seen a deer this fat. I’ve named him Fat Tony.
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We’re talking obese deer in this thread. Thats how bad of a winter we’re having. I guess we will see about the PV hype train. Looks good on paper but nothing is stronger than the Pacific jet. It is the dominant weather determinant in Ninos and Nina’s.


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ATLwxfan said:
Listen closely to the sound of the proverbial can getting kicked…

x.com

x.com x.com


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This is pretty much what Webb has been on here talking about for several weeks, and he’s been pretty much spot on the last few winters with how the pattern has transpired. Also this follows right along with climo as well.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The same physical processes working to retract the Pacific Jet Stream & generate Western Canada blocking/+PNA in early January will also try to drop a mean trough over the western half of the CONUS as we approach mid-January.

Although the prototypical -PNA pattern will be significantly muted & smeared in this case for obvious ENSO-related reasons (i.e. I wouldn't expect a particularly persistent or intense SE US ridge here (if at all)).... ...this large-scale signal is definitely legit, esp. given the forthcoming collapse of the +IOD that'll help enhance the expression of Indian Ocean-related convective + downstream circulation anomalies.

This is the kind of pattern we need to see to restore the snow pack over the northern tier of the US going into our prime window for winter weather (late Jan-early Feb)


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My thoughts on the extended haven’t changed much overall since this post a few weeks ago.

Cooler pattern in early January, but not cold enough to truly snow. Then, the trough goes out west around mid-January & builds the snow pack up over the CONUS and southern Canada to a point where it can help sustain a good pattern later on down the road. Trough probably shifts back east late month into early February and that’s when our best opportunities for wintry weather will probably exist
 
Webberweather53 said:
My thoughts on the extended haven’t changed much overall since this post a few weeks ago.

Cooler pattern in early January, but not cold enough to truly snow. Then, the trough goes out west around mid-January & builds the snow pack up over the CONUS and southern Canada to a point where it can help sustain a good pattern later on down the road. Trough probably shifts back east late month into early February and that’s when our best opportunities for wintry weather will probably exist
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Timing better than last year I suppose as this was projected to be a late Feb/early March back in '22. Can't recall if it ever really happened. Think I exited stage left by that late in the season. Hard closing window by that time
 
Webberweather53 said:
My thoughts on the extended haven’t changed much overall since this post a few weeks ago.

Cooler pattern in early January, but not cold enough to truly snow. Then, the trough goes out west around mid-January & builds the snow pack up over the CONUS and southern Canada to a point where it can help sustain a good pattern later on down the road. Trough probably shifts back east late month into early February and that’s when our best opportunities for wintry weather will probably exist
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I’d be willing to bet if we’re waiting till February we’re gonna bat 0 for the winter and might as well move on to spring. Just my opinion hopefully I’m wrong.
 
Stevo24 said:
I’d be willing to bet if we’re waiting till February we’re gonna bat 0 for the winter and might as well move on to spring. Just my opinion hopefully I’m wrong.
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I'd have to agree. I find it very hard to believe the month of February, in any enso regime is going to be cold considering the last 10 years.
 
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