• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

SnowNiner said:
So, it's November, time for predictions for the winter to come out in full force. Here are my two cents.

I don't understand the intricacies of the Nino and east based, etc. However I feel that they're generally wet so I think the winter will have moisture around. But really who knows? Ninos act like Ninas and vice versa based on pacific forcing, so I don't put much stock in them anymore. Temperatures I believe will be warm overall, 3-5 degrees above normal. This is simply because that's what it always is, we always have warmer than normal winters IMBY. I'm not sure I remember the last time it was overall cooler than average so I'm betting the streak. So, wet, generally warm but periods of cold based on when the pacific jet hits the sweet spot. When it's in the right spot for a western ridge/eastern trough, we'll have a shot at winter weather. When it's retreated, or on steroids, we're warm. Honestly I think this is our winters for the foreseeable future.

Will the pacific jet be in the right spot enough to get us winter weather? I don't know. It seems like the MJO has had a significant influence the last few years, so I'll be watching that.
Click to expand...
3-5 degrees above normal? That's a lot. Not betting against above normal per se but not 3-5 for the winter, if that is what you mean. We're fairly close in geo for temp discussion as a relative measure.
 
SnowNiner said:
So, it's November, time for predictions for the winter to come out in full force. Here are my two cents.

I don't understand the intricacies of the Nino and east based, etc. However I feel that they're generally wet so I think the winter will have moisture around. But really who knows? Ninos act like Ninas and vice versa based on pacific forcing, so I don't put much stock in them anymore. Temperatures I believe will be warm overall, 3-5 degrees above normal. This is simply because that's what it always is, we always have warmer than normal winters IMBY. I'm not sure I remember the last time it was overall cooler than average so I'm betting the streak. So, wet, generally warm but periods of cold based on when the pacific jet hits the sweet spot. When it's in the right spot for a western ridge/eastern trough, we'll have a shot at winter weather. When it's retreated, or on steroids, we're warm. Honestly I think this is our winters for the foreseeable future.

Will the pacific jet be in the right spot enough to get us winter weather? I don't know. It seems like the MJO has had a significant influence the last few years, so I'll be watching that.
Click to expand...
3-5 degrees above normal is WAYYYYYY too high.
 
MB22 said:
Wait a minute. You moved from MInnesota to Phenix City and you love winter weather????? OH man.?
Click to expand...
I guess Snowmiser33 is looking for the preferred southern winter weather - severe thunderstorms! He may catch some snow flurries on the back side of a vigorous system, but probably not much else in Phenix City as far as frozen/freezing precipitation.
 
weatherfide said:
I guess Snowmiser33 is looking for the preferred southern winter weather - severe thunderstorms! He may catch some snow flurries on the back side of a vigorous system, but probably not much else in Phenix City as far as frozen/freezing precipitation.
Click to expand...
The only good thing about thunderstorms in the Winter is if its along a low pressure getting ready to go up the East Coast and slam the Mid-Atlantic with 2 feet of snow!
 
jeremyt said:
I like the cool/cold snaps and maybe not recently but we generally have chances at severe don’t we?
Click to expand...
I'm not particularly fond of the high shear/low CAPE events we get in November; all of the risk of loss of life and destruction of property with basically none of the fun.

The sun is low and you have to get a tee time in by 1 if you want to have a punchers chance of getting a full round in. Everything is brown and dying.

Hot streaks still feel dumb and abnormal, cold snaps aren't fun because it's a cascade of "25 degree night/20 degree night/sub 40 degree high" punches in the mouth.

But at least it could snow right? Ha, don't be silly. There's a slight threat of novelty snow, sure, but we all know we don't get snow until mid January anyway :)

I hate it. At least the football is good. Nothing like it getting dark by 5 to watch Bryce Young throw pick 6s because he can't see over the offensive line and changing the channel to watch CJ Stroud throw 6 TDs and a bazillion yards. Keep Pounding! December could not get here soon enough.
 
MB22 said:
Months ranked worst to first:
12. July
11. August
10. September
9. June
8. May
7. April
6. October
5. November
4. March
3. December
2. February
1. January
Click to expand...

We have a term in our community called "weenie suicide watch." It's when we go week after week without winter weather or nothing to track or a big system develops and then it goes poof next run.???
 
Itryatgolf said:
We have a term in our community called "weenie suicide watch." It's when we go week after week without winter weather or nothing to track or a big system develops and then it goes poof next run.???
Click to expand...
Everyone on the forum needs to move 2 states north.:D At least.?☃️❄️?️
 
Snowmiser33 said:
Hey guys new poster here I love winter weather and I just moved to the south from Minnesota.. Hope to learn as much as possible from you experts through this upcoming winter
Click to expand...
Not an expert by any means but it's probably a no brainer to you that your neck of the woods in South Alabama isn't really the best place winter wise. The saving grace is that you're west of the Apps so any cold shots won't be blocked/muted unlike places further east like Macon, Savannah, southern SC, ect.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top