Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

[BullCityWx]

 

[NoSnowATL]

Updated CanSIPS

 

[Bham 99]

Updated CanSIPS

It's coming!

 

[NoSnowATL]

It's coming!

IDk, November looks dry for the 1st half so it for the CanSIP to be right the 2nd half better bring the rain.

 

[LukeBarrette]

IDk, November looks dry for the 1st half so it for the CanSIP to be right the 2nd half better bring the rain.

Looks very dry, I would be on the lookout for forest fires soon. Already a couple up here in VA. My Weather Analysis professor mentioned that the Gatlinburg area is drier now than it was before the 2016 fires.

 

[Itryatgolf]

View attachment 137738

I believe Nov update will be out soon

 

[FallsLake]

Another article: https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/03/weather/us-snowfall-maps-el-nino-winter-climate/index.html

 

[BullCityWx]

Well well well

Snow into WNC at hour 240 on the GFS

 

[lexxnchloe]

Well well well

Snow into WNC at hour 240 on the GFS

That would be perfect in jan/feb

 

[Chazwin]

That would be perfect in jan/feb

There’s absolutely no support for this on the GEFS

 

[NoSnowATL]

There’s absolutely no support for this on the GEFS

Go look at the tropical thread… yikes

 

[Rain Cold]

Updated CanSIPS

What's it showing for temp anoms?

 

[NoSnowATL]

What's it showing for temp anoms?

Nov- above avg
Dec- above avg slightly
Jan- around avg
Feb- below
March around avg.

 

[Stevo24]

Nov- above avg
Dec- above avg slightly
Jan- around avg
Feb- below
March around avg.

So warm when there’s plenty of moisture, cold when there’s none. Got it.

 

[SimeonNC]

I'm still pretty confident in the possibility of a window of opportunity in December. Once we get into the middle of this month we need to start looking at the indices and teleconnections and LR model runs.

 

[tennessee storm]

So warm when there’s plenty of moisture, cold when there’s none. Got it.

I am
Not seeing any rain now sight , least for my area

 

[tennessee storm]

So warm when there’s plenty of moisture, cold when there’s none. Got it.

That the way it works in the southeast …

 

[Triplephase93]

Looks very dry, I would be on the lookout for forest fires soon. Already a couple up here in VA. My Weather Analysis professor mentioned that the Gatlinburg area is drier now than it was before the 2016 fires.

There is a 1400 acre fire atop Lookout Mountain that broke containment yesterday. It has caused smoke into Chattanooga. Luckily the winds look relatively calm the next few days.

 

[accu35]

Next weekend rain chances looking better on gfs for the southeast

 

[Chazwin]

There is a 1400 acre fire atop Lookout Mountain that broke containment yesterday. It has caused smoke into Chattanooga. Luckily the winds look relatively calm the next few days.

There’s a plume of smoke showing on satellite from that one and one in Henderson County,NC