• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

The same physical processes working to retract the Pacific Jet Stream & generate Western Canada blocking/+PNA in early January will also try to drop a mean trough over the western half of the CONUS as we approach mid-January.

Although the prototypical -PNA pattern will be significantly muted & smeared in this case for obvious ENSO-related reasons (i.e. I wouldn't expect a particularly persistent or intense SE US ridge here (if at all)).... ...this large-scale signal is definitely legit, esp. given the forthcoming collapse of the +IOD that'll help enhance the expression of Indian Ocean-related convective + downstream circulation anomalies.

This is the kind of pattern we need to see to restore the snow pack over the northern tier of the US going into our prime window for winter weather (late Jan-early Feb)


Screenshot 2023-12-19 at 6.55.26 AM.png

Screenshot 2023-12-19 at 6.55.49 AM.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-5276800.png

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-5276800.png
 
I'm still skeptical of legit winter storm potential in/around early January.

It's possible we could sneak something in, but this looks like one of those cases where the circulation pattern is quite favorable for a winter storm, but the actual cold air may not be there because of how warm the pattern is beforehand.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The same physical processes working to retract the Pacific Jet Stream & generate Western Canada blocking/+PNA in early January will also try to drop a mean trough over the western half of the CONUS as we approach mid-January.

Although the prototypical -PNA pattern will be significantly muted & smeared in this case for obvious ENSO-related reasons (i.e. I wouldn't expect a particularly persistent or intense SE US ridge here (if at all)).... ...this large-scale signal is definitely legit, esp. given the forthcoming collapse of the +IOD that'll help enhance the expression of Indian Ocean-related convective + downstream circulation anomalies.

This is the kind of pattern we need to see to restore the snow pack over the northern tier of the US going into our prime window for winter weather (late Jan-early Feb)


View attachment 138775

View attachment 138778

View attachment 138776

View attachment 138777
Click to expand...
Do you see it evolving with the cold spreading east like some models have or the PNA spiking and driving the trof east? The CFS seems to like the first option.
 
NCSNOW said:
Its 9 degrees up top and windchill about -10 - -15.

View attachment 138774
Click to expand...
I went skiing up at beech last January during that cold outbreak. They got about 6” up on Beech. When those wind chill values get into the -10’s she’s a whole different animal. It’s a different world up there.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The same physical processes working to retract the Pacific Jet Stream & generate Western Canada blocking/+PNA in early January will also try to drop a mean trough over the western half of the CONUS as we approach mid-January.

Although the prototypical -PNA pattern will be significantly muted & smeared in this case for obvious ENSO-related reasons (i.e. I wouldn't expect a particularly persistent or intense SE US ridge here (if at all)).... ...this large-scale signal is definitely legit, esp. given the forthcoming collapse of the +IOD that'll help enhance the expression of Indian Ocean-related convective + downstream circulation anomalies.

This is the kind of pattern we need to see to restore the snow pack over the northern tier of the US going into our prime window for winter weather (late Jan-early Feb)


View attachment 138775

View attachment 138778

View attachment 138776

View attachment 138777
Click to expand...
already kicking the can to february i see, in true southeast fashion
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The GFS was interesting for the same time period too.
Click to expand...
Yeah that time period is worth keeping an eye on. It has some pretty serious challenges with cold air availability and moisture return but if you are like me and just want to see some snow flakes in the air we've obsessed over worse looks on this site
 
Another episode of As The Vortex Turns:
ps2png-worker-commands-64f9dd744-nmvgt-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-qKdpfm.png

The Odd positive spike for the last week of December followed by a sharp downturn is new. What to make of it? I have no idea.

ECMWF | Charts

charts.ecmwf.int charts.ecmwf.int
 
Rain Cold said:
Hopefully it will help lay down some snow cover up north because we're dead in the water without snow cover.
Click to expand...
The one good thing we have going for us in that department is the fact that eastern Canada is holding on to its snowpack fairly well. If we can get that TPV to set up over Baffin Bay and press south, it would definitely help out with the lack of snow cover in the US. Looking back, that’s actually what happened in early January 2002 as after that storm was over ATL, GSP, CLT, GSO, and RDU all had higher season to date snowfall than Chicago and Minneapolis. The other good thing about the PV in that location is that it often sets up a series of clippers that can quickly build up snow cover in the northern tier.
 
Chazwin said:
The one good thing we have going for us in that department is the fact that eastern Canada is holding on to its snowpack fairly well. If we can get that TPV to set up over Baffin Bay and press south, it would definitely help out with the lack of snow cover in the US. Looking back, that’s actually what happened in early January 2002 as after that storm was over ATL, GSP, CLT, GSO, and RDU all had higher season to date snowfall than Chicago and Minneapolis. The other good thing about the PV in that location is that it often sets up a series of clippers that can quickly build up snow cover in the northern tier.
Click to expand...
I love clippers! 20:1 ratios! ⛄️
Hope this pattern setting to bring y’all the goods, helps me get cold and snowy as well! Temps here are about 15-25 degrees above normal every day through Christmas! ?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top