I feel like it's in the category of you like to see it but it's like the fifth or sixth most important indicator.
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
I agree. I'm not 100% sure there's a causal relationship anyway. I've given up even following it.
World Climate Service says this ain’t east based and we should buy snow shovels. Well they implied the last part. ?
Shaggy
Member
Yeah… I guess it makes a difference when you have cross-polar flow setting up for much of the winter, and there’s colder air in Siberia to tap into it. However as we know, the cross polar flow has not happened much in recent years
lexxnchloe
Member
This will be the year!!
I think a lot of areas in the Carolinas are due. KCLT hasn’t had a 6”+ storm since February 2014.
Avalanche
Member
We know d… well this ain’t how it’s suppose to be. 9 years!!!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Not sure if anyone posted this but we are going from a west based QBO to east or negative QBO. The info below was found from this link which has good info as well.
www.severe-weather.eu
"The QBO is an important part of weather development in Winter, as it can affect the Polar Vortex and the jet stream. The power and direction of the winds in the polar jet stream can change with the QBO.
So, the QBO on its own does not affect the weather at the surface directly. Rather, it helps to modify/change the large-scale forcing of the El Niño, helping to collapse the Polar Vortex."
Winter 2023/2024 is starting to trend colder in the latest forecast, with large-scale El Nino influence across the United States, Canada and Europe
Latest Winter forecast data shows a colder trend emerging for the United States, powered by the El Nino, Polar Vortex and the QBO anomaly
www.severe-weather.eu
"The QBO is an important part of weather development in Winter, as it can affect the Polar Vortex and the jet stream. The power and direction of the winds in the polar jet stream can change with the QBO.
So, the QBO on its own does not affect the weather at the surface directly. Rather, it helps to modify/change the large-scale forcing of the El Niño, helping to collapse the Polar Vortex."
Itryatgolf
Member
I know the models/ensembles have been hinting a pv disruption/split, which is a little early but could lead to colder weather laterNot sure if anyone posted this but we are going from a west based QBO to east or negative QBO. The info below was found from this link which has good info as well.
Winter 2023/2024 is starting to trend colder in the latest forecast, with large-scale El Nino influence across the United States, Canada and Europe
Latest Winter forecast data shows a colder trend emerging for the United States, powered by the El Nino, Polar Vortex and the QBO anomaly
"The QBO is an important part of weather development in Winter, as it can affect the Polar Vortex and the jet stream. The power and direction of the winds in the polar jet stream can change with the QBO.
So, the QBO on its own does not affect the weather at the surface directly. Rather, it helps to modify/change the large-scale forcing of the El Niño, helping to collapse the Polar Vortex."
Prestige Worldwide
Member
I don’t hate this look. Give me this in January
Itryatgolf
Member
I see my cute friend the Aleutian low?
tennessee storm
Member
Glad not winter. Hopefully this strong Nino can save us on heating n energy bill this winter
Itryatgolf
Member
Go ? go ?
The heat still runs when it’s 45 and raining all winter.
tennessee storm
Member
Not has hard on the thermostat though lol
Itryatgolf
Member
One good thing about fall back is the models come in 1hr earlier?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
It helps with cold air build up, but that doesn't guarantee that we will see any of it. So, yeah, not a big factor for winter weather here.
Official winter outlook 