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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Webberweather53 said:
No.

Most ensembles show near neutral temperatures for the remainder of the month. Unless GSO averages -2F or less the rest of the way, that's not happening.
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You talk as if you trust the ensembles like Bible.... from 2 weeks out. At the same time, you call us weenies for doing what you do routinely. that's the definition of a hypocrite. You are a climate change activist and have a warm bias to all your posts and your long-range forecasts. It's getting old when you troll posters for merely pointing out weather possibilities. We are tired of all your unwarranted negativity.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
You talk as if you trust the ensembles like Bible.... from 2 weeks out. At the same time, you call us weenies for doing what you do routinely. that's the definition of a hypocrite. You are a climate change activist and have a warm bias to all your posts and your long-range forecasts. It's getting old when you troll posters for merely pointing out weather possibilities. We are tired of all your unwarranted negativity.
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Cad Wedge NC said:
You talk as if you trust the ensembles like Bible.... from 2 weeks out. At the same time, you call us weenies for doing what you do routinely. that's the definition of a hypocrite. You are a climate change activist and have a warm bias to all your posts and your long-range forecasts. It's getting old when you troll posters for merely pointing out weather possibilities. We are tired of all your unwarranted negativity.
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Sigh... what's with the personal attacks?

Climate change really doesn't factor into anything in my previous few posts.

Last I checked, every December since 2010 has been above average over the SE US, complaining about someone posting information that shows it happening this year once again for the 13th time in a row isn't helping anyone.
 
Itryatgolf said:
Go check out JB video today if you haven't already. He mentions about a forecaster competition that is on his page that any good forecaster, like yourself, can enter.
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Cad Wedge NC said:
You talk as if you trust the ensembles like Bible.... from 2 weeks out. At the same time, you call us weenies for doing what you do routinely. that's the definition of a hypocrite. You are a climate change activist and have a warm bias to all your posts and your long-range forecasts. It's getting old when you troll posters for merely pointing out weather possibilities. We are tired of all your unwarranted negativity.
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It is what it is …. Climate is changing . Nothing we can do about it
 
Webberweather53 said:
Sigh... what's with the personal attacks?

Climate change really doesn't factor into anything in my previous few posts.

Last I checked, every December since 2010 has been above average over the SE US, complaining about someone posting information that shows it happening this year once again for the 13th time in a row isn't helping anyone.
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I think it's mostly the absolutism and dismissive tone, like, "No.....etc." Anyway, it's not worth going down that road for the 10th year in a row.

At least things look a little bit decent out at range...for now.
 
CMC and GFS Ens still meh at hr360, but Euro Ens progressing nicely

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Rain Cold said:
I think it's mostly the absolutism and dismissive tone, like, "No.....etc." Anyway, it's not worth going down that road for the 10th year in a row.

At least things look a little bit decent out at range...for now.
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It's just a fact that most reliable guidance don't support a huge improvement temperature-wise, let alone a below normal December as was previously claimed to be "likely".

Not my fault people get offended by that kind of objectivity.

Not to mention, several other sites (RDU, CLT, FAY, etc.) are running warmer than GSO is in the +2.5F range or so thus far this month. GSO seems more like a cold cherry-pick to support a certain narrative than objective analyses.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's just a fact that most reliable guidance don't support a huge improvement temperature-wise, let alone a below normal December as was previously claimed to be "likely".

Not my fault people get offended by that kind of objectivity.

Not to mention, several other sites (RDU, CLT, FAY, etc.) are running warmer than GSO is in the +2.5F range or so thus far this month. GSO seems more like a cold cherry-pick to support a certain narrative than objective analyses.
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I don't think your content is wrong.
 
To be clearer, I was saying its not likely, just a long shot possibility at my location GSO to possibly, maybe finish BN. Highly doubtfull,but can't be dismissed totally, which is the point I was attempting to make. Myself , alot of us expected a torch. If +5 was the #, we all (most)would have bet on the over for December.

And yes climate is changing. It always has been and will be. long and short cycles, depending on the metric scale you use. Neat thing about our atmosphere. I contribute 98%+ to sun cycles and Geo Thermal influences mostly, espeacilly under water in the pacific. Man made contributions I dont weigh in as much an influence. When I do, Id say brick ,mortar and asphalt are the biggest nemisis. Definitely not fossil fuels.
 
SimeonNC said:
Is it safe to say tyat everyone's prediction of megatorch December 2015 repeat will most likely be wrong?
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Yeah. CLT will still end up above average. If I had to guess it will be about 3 degrees or so above. The few days around Christmas could make that go higher depending on how much daytime temps are held in check by any cloud cover, but low temperatures around then look like they’ll be 8-10 degrees above average
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah. CLT will still end up above average. If I had to guess it will be about 3 degrees or so above. The few days around Christmas could make that go higher depending on how much daytime temps are held in check by any cloud cover, but low temperatures around then look like they’ll be 8-10 degrees above average
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Going cooler in the western SE/southern plains is gonna come back to get me E6A729A0-8CBC-4A6F-AA7B-07B94F9AF4A6.png
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Chazwin said:
Yeah. CLT will still end up above average. If I had to guess it will be about 3 degrees or so above. The few days around Christmas could make that go higher depending on how much daytime temps are held in check by any cloud cover, but low temperatures around then look like they’ll be 8-10 degrees above average
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Tbh our highs have been pretty seasonable for the most part, if our lows weren't so warm we would be near average.

The next few days should knock us down a bit. Especially Tuesday.
 
NCSNOW said:
Latest CFS has a Board wide Rocking happy New Years
Eve delight. Very encouraged by the EPS and seeing other guidance sing same tune is encouraging.Maybe we can score one 12/28- Early Jan.
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Let’s see it don’t hold back
 
SimeonNC said:
Is it safe to say tyat everyone's prediction of megatorch December 2015 repeat will most likely be wrong?
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Everyone?

You sure about that?

Webberweather53 said:
It doesn't look as warm as 2015, which had a ridge rooted over the SE US. This year we have lot of systems cutting through the subtropics that'll keep our temps in check. Lots of upper 50s - maybe 60s type days, perhaps 70F or two thrown in there, but I wouldn't expect the 80s we had in 2015.
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Webberweather53 said:
Just wanted to clear that up because the last few pages of comments @ me would argue I was calling for a megatorch in the SE US because I'm a "warmingsta" or whatever other nonsensical, derogatory, and inaccurate term people like to label me as.
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You're good lol, I was mainly thinking of a lot of posts I've seen over at Americanwx when I made that post.

As for the argument, I have no skin in it and honestly arguing over stuff like this is pointless.
 
GEFS Extended and ECMWF Weeklies showing a period of western troughing after the first week of January's strong +PNA.

This would be a rather welcome sight in the long run imho. All the barren ground over the Midwest + Great Lakes would get filled in with a deep and cold snow pack, setting the stage for a potential run at some true big dog potential for the US East Coast near the end of January into February.


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Webberweather53 said:
GEFS Extended and ECMWF Weeklies showing a period of western troughing after the first week of January's strong +PNA.

This would be a rather welcome sight in the long run imho. All the barren ground over the Midwest + Great Lakes would get filled in with a deep and cold snow pack, setting the stage for a potential run at some true big dog potential for the US East Coast near the end of January into February.


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The weekly snow swaths from both of these model suites reinforces this point. While it would hamper things in the shorter-term, we'd be sitting pretty in the long run during our most favorable climo window (late Jan-Feb) if we can get just a little bit of western-central US centric troughing for a week or so.


gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-snow_168hr-4931200.png



ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-snow_168hr-4931200.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The weekly snow swaths from both of these model suites reinforces this point. While it would hamper things in the shorter-term, we'd be sitting pretty in the long run during our most favorable climo window (late Jan-Feb) if we can get just a little bit of western-central US centric troughing for a week or so.


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Already talking about the end of Jan beginning of Feb. Dang. I get tired of having a 2 week window at winter.
 
Stevo24 said:
Already talking about the end of Jan beginning of Feb. Dang. I get tired of having a 2 week window at winter.
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Unfortunately, that's the pain of of winter in the southeast almost every year it seems and it's getting worse each year. Hang in there. I know your pain. We have such a short window every year outside the mountains. I've never went 2 years in a row in my 41 years living here since 81 without any snow. Will see. Always a waiting game to time everything up just right.
 
J1C1111 said:
Unfortunately, that's the pain of of winter in the southeast almost every year it seems and it's getting worse each year. Hang in there. I know your pain. We have such a short window every year outside the mountains. I've never went 2 years in a row in my 41 years living here since 81 without any snow. Will see. Always a waiting game to time everything up just right.
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Yeah so true …. Welcome to the south . Being a big weather freak as I am , I love winter storms just as much as a severe wx outbreak . I just have become jaded with winter last few years
 
NCSNOW said:
6z Operational GFS joins the CFS choir. Pattern flip 28th. Snow in NC 29th and a big dog rolling in 1/1-1/2. The Bull City Ping alert from yesterday is getting louder. Maybe 1/29-1/7 is legit. We shall see over the next week or so.
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Big dog for the I-40 crowd. Us I-20 folks just get wet verbatim. Long time to go tho
 
NCSNOW said:
6z Operational GFS joins the CFS choir. Pattern flip 28th. Snow in NC 29th and a big dog rolling in 1/1-1/2. The Bull City Ping alert from yesterday is getting louder. Maybe 1/29-1/7 is legit. We shall see over the next week or so.
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Yeah a big dog for the northeast. 90 percent of this board looked like rain to me.
 
Have to watch the evolution of ridging initially across Central Canada that begins to retrograde as we get into Christmas and new years. If we can get enough amplitude there we can get some cross polar flow and start establishing some cold into the Hudson Bay region that could be enough to tap into our region around or after the new year. The 6z gfs pinched off a ridge north of barrow and started the process with a nice string of cold highs through Canada into the USgfs_mslpaNorm_nhem_65.png

The eps wasn't as enthusiastic
eps_mslpaNorm_nhem_61.png

Be careful with the means and the constant blue heights and blue 850s over the SE, the pattern is likely to be somewhat active so that spreads on the means and looks super impressive but the reality is likely more choppy. With no good suppression mechanism you have to have concen in that 12/27-1/5 period that things amp and lift so I would think initial or ending winter precipitation is favored minus a better chance of an all snow event from OKC to Mem to Ric.

We probably hit the apex of this first shot of winter 1/5-12 especially if we can get a tall western ridge and draw cold/pv into the Hudson Bay region. This would be imo when we could get a significant system for a larger part of the region.

As retrogression continues the pattern should start to transition to some level of trough to our west and maybe a SER reflection, this is fine. We are likely to start going back into a more blocky better pattern 1/25-2/1.

I still think things are going as expected aside from some timing differences from my own thoughts.
 
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