48% of GEFS Ext members with SSW in early Jan period on tonight's run. Highest I've seen so far this winter for that product. Could help to shake things up down the line


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Either a lot of gentle rain with no storms more likely, or drought.Awesome April gonna be lit.
It's a lot more advanced than that. The higher resolution we go, the worse things compound from initial forecasting errors. I'd like to see better initialization across the board.I honestly don't think the programming can handle our climate correctly.
I told some people yesterday my fear rolling this forward is the AK ridge going up but the trough in the west staying there in the means. Here we are today. Damn.Euro Weeklies retrograde the pattern nicely thru Alaska, then dump the trough in the west. Doesn't really look right, but we are good at fail boats and train wrecks
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Euro Weeklies retrograde the pattern nicely thru Alaska, then dump the trough in the west. Doesn't really look right, but we are good at fail boats and train wrecks
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I think we already know how this turns out.Euro Weeklies retrograde the pattern nicely thru Alaska, then dump the trough in the west. Doesn't really look right, but we are good at fail boats and train wrecks
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The weeklies change just about every run so I wouldn't put much stock in it yet. If it gets within the day 10 timeframe, then that's a different storyEuro Weeklies retrograde the pattern nicely thru Alaska, then dump the trough in the west. Doesn't really look right, but we are good at fail boats and train wrecks
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Is that because the mjo may be getting or going into 8-2?Improvement on today's Euro Weeklies
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I'd say the biggest thing is getting the mega Pac Jet ext to back off some. Don't see any big +EAMT events in late Dec / early Jan as of now, so that would help a lot. Not sure how much impact the MJO will have. It may be more important that it's not in P3-4-5-6 than it actually being in 8-1-2. We want the Pac jet to extend some west to east, just not all the way to California. Upcoming weakened strat state helps some as wellIs that because the mjo may be getting or going into 8-2?
I would like to see a -EAMT if that could help us to get a more sustainable colder pattern or anything else with some durabilityI'd say the biggest thing is getting the mega Pac Jet ext to back off some. Don't see any big +EAMT events in late Dec / early Jan as of now, so that would help a lot. Not sure how much impact the MJO will have. It may be more important that it's not in P3-4-5-6 than it actually being in 8-1-2. We want the Pac jet to extend some west to east, just not all the way to California. Upcoming weakened strat state helps some as well
Even we get one… no guarantee the cold air comes on our side of the world ….Cliff notes version...say a prayer that we do indeed have a major SSWE in early January.
Prove it12z gfs op looks terrible in the lr
Phew thank goodness GFS is trash. Or atleast that’s what we say when it shows good looks.
Right where we want it,goofy is rarely right12z gfs op looks terrible in the lr
One day, maybe we'll actually get a look like that. It looks great.
Looks like an extended period of CAD to my untrained eye?One day, maybe we'll actually get a look like that. It looks great.
good readNot much going on currently winter weather-wise so some reading material...
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A strong Jet Stream will take over December, but Winter is now forecast to arrive in the United States as we head into 2024
A broad Low-Pressure area creates a strong Jet Stream pattern this month, but Winter weather is forecast to arrive to the United States in January 2024www.severe-weather.eu
The ridging north of AK looks good.Best 7-day panel on tonight's GEFS Ext (Jan 2-9). Euro Wk is fairly similar, but not quite as good
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It’s like we were getting some good looks on the Ext models, then they went away…and now coming back someThe ridging north of AK looks good.