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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

I think that theory is about as reliable as looking at wooly worms.
Which is about reliable as all other winter forecast. ///But I agree, there's nothing statistical that proves this right. Just a lot of memories of early (cold) season storms, with lots of excitement about a great upcoming winter, and then ultimately a warm winter.
 
Which is about reliable as all other winter forecast. ///But I agree, there's nothing statistical that proves this right. Just a lot of memories of early (cold) season storms, with lots of excitement about a great upcoming winter, and then ultimately a warm winter.
There's been a lot of talk about the wooly worms the past 3 or4 years and we see where that got us
 
Anybody checked the seeds in the persimmons yet? 80% accuracy ?
 
I'm mostly kidding, but the "theory" is any kind of big storm (nor'easter or hurricane) around Halloween signifies an upcoming warm winter.
I don’t know about that…2012-2013 ended fairly cool after Sandy came in around Halloween
 
In my experiences down south, a big cold shot or big snowstorm in the mountains in October, usually equates to a crap winter 8 out of ten times! See October storm of 1991 Halloween storm, Mt Mitchell got like 4’ of snow, if I recall it was a crappy winter that followed!?

I'm still remembering last year how the only heavy wet snow we got all winter was for 10 minutes in mid November... didn't even stick in the whole city

The only accumulating snow was the dry stuff when the wind chill was -20 at Christmas
 
If you can find enough cold air from the north, and a southern storm track, the Gulf and Carribean are a powder keg of warm moisture ready to supply copious storm fuel...at or above record water temperatures when comparing back to 1982...


XrUKaEN.png



abOA1JG.png
 
If you can find enough cold air from the north, and a southern storm track, the Gulf and Carribean are a powder keg of warm moisture ready to supply copious storm fuel...at or above record water temperatures when comparing back to 1982...


XrUKaEN.png



abOA1JG.png
Bring it on
 
I don’t know about that…2012-2013 ended fairly cool after Sandy came in around Halloween
It was ok. I had a couple of 2" events.

 
If you can find enough cold air from the north, and a southern storm track, the Gulf and Carribean are a powder keg of warm moisture ready to supply copious storm fuel...at or above record water temperatures when comparing back to 1982...


XrUKaEN.png



abOA1JG.png
Somehow the dry slot will cut totals by half
 
If you can find enough cold air from the north, and a southern storm track, the Gulf and Carribean are a powder keg of warm moisture ready to supply copious storm fuel...at or above record water temperatures when comparing back to 1982...


XrUKaEN.png



abOA1JG.png
Good to know my hunch about this winter having a high potential for a HECS has some actual support and isn't a complete wishcast XD
 
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In the 133-year record back to the winter of 1890-1891, there have only been 6 winters in which Asheville recorded more snowfall than Boston. Here are the years and associated composite maps for those winters: 1) Dec-Mar 500mb Ht Anomalies, 2) 850mb Temperature Anomalies, 3) Surface Temperature Anomalies, 4) Precipitation Anomalies

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