• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Stevo24 said:
Are you still expecting a flip to a pretty decent pattern beginning January?
Click to expand...

It's going to take a while for real cold air to seep back into the pattern, especially after this warm period zaps a lot of the snow cover to the north. Circulation pattern looks favorable but idk if the cold air will be there.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No wonder it's been so quiet in here the last several days.

If you were hoping to see some snow before January, I honestly can't think of a crappier pattern than this one.
Plenty cold enough for cold rain, but nowhere near cold enough to snow.

Not surprised at all though, this is pretty in line w/ what I was saying in here earlier this week & is par for the course for big El Niños.


View attachment 138418


View attachment 138419
Click to expand...
Just out of curiosity… how warm do you think the southeast might get? A month ago, I fully expected to see temperatures approaching December 2015… of course that hasn’t played out. Looking at the 500mb charts for later this week and leading up to Christmas, I would think that temperatures at the surface would be a a good bit warmer than what the modeled output is showing.
 
Chazwin said:
Just out of curiosity… how warm do you think the southeast might get? A month ago, I fully expected to see temperatures approaching December 2015… of course that hasn’t played out. Looking at the 500mb charts for later this week and leading up to Christmas, I would think that temperatures at the surface would be a a good bit warmer than what the modeled output is showing.
Click to expand...

It doesn't look as warm as 2015, which had a ridge rooted over the SE US. This year we have lot of systems cutting through the subtropics that'll keep our temps in check. Lots of upper 50s - maybe 60s type days, perhaps 70F or two thrown in there, but I wouldn't expect the 80s we had in 2015.
 
Itryatgolf said:
Looks like kicking can down the road will continue for foreseeable future.
Click to expand...
When I heard strong El Nino, I kept all the chips I had in my pocket. Have 0 invested expectation wise. Learned my lesson with these. You look for a window to score and take what you can get. Which Ill be doing fully expecting minimal return. They are the toughest to get cold in here and stay.
 
NCSNOW said:
When I heard strong El Nino, I kept all the chips I had in my pocket. Have 0 invested expectation wise. Learned my lesson with these. You look for a window to score and take what you can get. Which Ill be doing fully expecting minimal return. They are the toughest to get cold in here and stay.
Click to expand...
I agree. Hope for at least a few week opportunity for enough cold and snow at some point this winter
 
Need to get rid of that low parked off Alaska coast. Never moves. disappears. Its the road block and culprit for torching North America. Its parked there because the super pac jet is what creates and sustains it.
 
From the glass is half full club, while the time frame around Christmas isn't looking very promising at this time, the New Year looks primed to ring in a new, more wintry pattern with the MJO progged to a very favorable look and a higher than usual chance of a SSWE to shake things up right on cue for prime-climo.

ps2png-worker-commands-864475f69f-4jfrm-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-jn6SdV.png

ps2png-worker-commands-864475f69f-4jfrm-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-5LkAt1.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Latest from JB: 12/11/23

Pattern change coming between the 20th and 30th. The JMA has been in support of our opposite last year idea ( remember Christmas cold then no winter, this year opposite) strongest 500 dn over the east Jan Feb opposite last winter

Image
Image

9:44 AM · Dec 11, 2023
·
11.8K
Views
Click to expand...
The JMA? Lawd..
 
griteater said:
Dec 11: Thoughts on the pattern ahead...

Mbv4Gsn.png
Click to expand...
This is my thinking too. Kinda like December 2015, there’s just too much mild Pacific air flooding into the continent the next couple weeks. As I’ve said before, I kinda expect modeled temps to start trending warmer for the end of this week and going forward. While I do see signs that the pattern starts to shuffle close to New Year’s, like January 2016 it’s going to take a couple weeks to get enough cold air to build back up. BTW… I’ve said it before while you always prefer to see the PNA positive, it’s far from the only important thing… it’s been positive for nearly two weeks and looks to stay that way through the two as well. Despite that the east and really most of the lower 48 is gonna torch
 
Chazwin said:
This is my thinking too. Kinda like December 2015, there’s just too much mild Pacific air flooding into the continent the next couple weeks. As I’ve said before, I kinda expect modeled temps to start trending warmer for the end of this week and going forward. While I do see signs that the pattern starts to shuffle close to New Year’s, like January 2016 it’s going to take a couple weeks to get enough cold air to build back up. BTW… I’ve said it before while you always prefer to see the PNA positive, it’s far from the only important thing… it’s been positive for nearly two weeks and looks to stay that way through the two as well. Despite that the east and really most of the lower 48 is gonna torch
Click to expand...
I hope we have more opportunities than Jan and Feb 2016 here but time will tell
 
This is how sad this pattern is! Brown Christmas incoming! EFABD0CE-AFA4-4C66-BBA7-1606B5C0C67A.png
 
Itryatgolf said:
I hope we have more opportunities than Jan and Feb 2016 here but time will tell
Click to expand...
We did have fairly good storm in late January 2016 and most of February was quite cold as well…with northern NC Piedmont getting a snowfall around Valentine’s Day
 
Chazwin said:
This is my thinking too. Kinda like December 2015, there’yous just too much mild Pacific air flooding into the continent the next couple weeks. As I’ve said before, I kinda expect modeled temps to start trending warmer for the end of this week and going forward. While I do see signs that the pattern starts to shuffle close to New Year’s, like January 2016 it’s going to take a couple weeks to get enough cold air to build back up. BTW… I’ve said it before while you always prefer to see the PNA positive, it’s far from the only important thing… it’s been positive for nearly two weeks and looks to stay that way through the two as well. Despite that the east and really most of the lower 48 is gonna torch
Click to expand...
You usually dont see a low parked in neutral on the coast of Alaska , weeks on end with a + pna. Thats why.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top