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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Just putting this out here once again, It's been 5 winters in my neck of the woods (Dec 2018) since any decent amount fell and I'm not talking about 6 inches of snow either.

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Chazwin said:
CLT metro had 4-6” on 12/29/1997. Also obviously there was the Christmas storm in 2010 which it looks like you weren’t here for… yes both of those still have a good snowfall for us in the southeast part of the metro area. There’s been some smaller ones over the years, but those are the two that stand out in my lifetime. Oh and 12/4-5/2002 wasn’t much snow but it was the worst ice storm that CLT metro has ever had.
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I also count Dec of 88. I was a kid in far SE Harnett County and we had 6 inches or so! If I’m not mistaken there were token flakes prior to Thanksgiving in Concord in 2010. I was with my kids at Concord Mills and everyone went to the windows like there was something going on outside.
 
LickWx said:
Looking good





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Well, I’m hoping since all the cold and snowy winter predictions don’t ever seem to come to fruition, then I’m assuming this will be incorrect as well! As some suprise , unknown factor , will ruin the all out nuclear torch that most are forecasting!
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
It really doesn't look like we're headed to a strong El Nino though. Moderate at best.

And yes, a shake-up in the Pacific is welcome.

We're due for a good winter!
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We are heading for a strong Nino... basically already are.. the average of the 4 enso anomalies this week gives you a strength of +1.85. Which is a "strong" Nino.

Most guidance still peaks this above +2 into December/jan.

Now will it behave as previous strong ninos? That's another issue compounded by the stubborn PDO that refuses to flip.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
We are heading for a strong Nino... basically already are.. the average of the 4 enso anomalies this week gives you a strength of +1.85. Which is a "strong" Nino.

Most guidance still peaks this above +2 into December/jan.

Now will it behave as previous strong ninos? That's another issue compounded by the stubborn PDO that refuses to flip.
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What we have is a mix of niño and niña currently but million dollar question is which one will dominate during winter? The euro seasonal actually has a blend of both imo
 
It’s been interesting to see the OP GFS run after run pump a million troughs into the EC.
 
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Don’t know much about these people, but here’s their thoughts and I approve! They mention 09-10 in there as well! Giddy up! C6674F13-653C-47A8-8106-24B78672C0F2.png4E2D04D6-2BA3-4AFA-84D1-1463940B53E7.png
 
Broken024 said:
I’ve lived here from 1997-2001 and 2012-now. Don’t think I’ve ever seen it snow here in December.
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I can remember a few events:

12/27/97, 12/04/02, 12/25/10. I know I’m missing a few, including an early 90s event where it snowed a few days before Christmas. I remember 1997 because it was the first time I’d ever seen McAdenville covered with snow.
 
BullCityWx said:
I can remember a few events:

12/27/97, 12/04/02, 12/25/10. I know I’m missing a few, including an early 90s event where it snowed a few days before Christmas. I remember 1997 because it was the first time I’d ever seen McAdenville covered with snow.
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In Georgia, I've seen it snow in December in 1997, 2000, 2010, 2017. Those are the years I can remember.
 
BullCityWx said:
I can remember a few events:

12/27/97, 12/04/02, 12/25/10. I know I’m missing a few, including an early 90s event where it snowed a few days before Christmas. I remember 1997 because it was the first time I’d ever seen McAdenville covered with snow.
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I just remembered 1998 there was that Ice Storm that started in the afternoon of 12/23 and lasted through Christmas Eve… it ended with a quick burst of snow early on Christmas morning. It was only about a half inch but it was the only time I ever woke up in the house I grew up in to a snow covered ground on Christmas morning… my family and I had been at Myrtle Beach on Christmas in 1989 and experienced the coastal blizzard.
 
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First big mountain system I’ve seen so far on models! We are getting closer and closer
 
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