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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Itryatgolf said:
You always want the Pacific on your side instead of just the Atlantic for colder weather imo
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While I do agree with this for the most part, it’s definitely possible for a great Atlantic to overcome a meh Pacific when “ homegrown” cold air is building up. The two biggest snowstorms that I have personally experienced here in the Charlotte area occurred with a negative PNA… January 1988 and February 2004
 
Chazwin said:
While I do agree with this for the most part, it’s definitely possible for a great Atlantic to overcome a meh Pacific when “ homegrown” cold air is building up. The two biggest snowstorms that I have personally experienced here in the Charlotte area occurred with a negative PNA… January 1988 and February 2004
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January 1988 was big southern slider. That was a great setup we had
 
Itryatgolf said:
ao must have been negative
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Nope. It was a +AO, +NAO, and a -PNA. The only things from a cold standpoint that was favorable was a strong PV push southward to meet up with a very moist STJ that was transferring moisture from all the way back towards Hawaii. The MJO was in a favorable phase as well. I’ve said before everything about that winter was horrible from a teleconnections standpoint and how mild overall it was. We just had incredibly lucky timing at peak early January climo to produce a storm that is still unforgettable for those of us that experienced it.
 
Chazwin said:
While I do agree with this for the most part, it’s definitely possible for a great Atlantic to overcome a meh Pacific when “ homegrown” cold air is building up. The two biggest snowstorms that I have personally experienced here in the Charlotte area occurred with a negative PNA… January 1988 and February 2004
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Chazwin said:
Nope. It was a +AO, +NAO, and a -PNA. The only things from a cold standpoint that was favorable was a strong PV push southward to meet up with a very moist STJ that was transferring moisture from all the way back towards Hawaii. The MJO was in a favorable phase as well. I’ve said before everything about that winter was horrible from a teleconnections standpoint and how mild overall it was. We just had incredibly lucky timing at peak early January climo to produce a storm that is still unforgettable for those of us that experienced it.
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Look at 87-88 in that chart0b22105a51132cf4ad17bcc734d5ce08.jpg
 
Last 10 runs (1 run / day) of Euro Weeklies for Dec 26 to Jan 2...

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griteater said:
My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern and its potential for winter weather in the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic

1UcZWdM.png
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This is probably one of the best put together graphics I've ever seen. Incredibly easy to read & understand. I hope you do updates on this over the coming weeks!
 
Mitch West said:
This is probably one of the best put together graphics I've ever seen. Incredibly easy to read & understand. I hope you do updates on this over the coming weeks!
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Appreciate that feedback Mitch. Thank you. I try to have a little fun along the way with this crap. I would like to continue
 
There must be some severely negative AO and NAO GEFS extended members. The spread goes from +3 all the way to -6.5 on the AO and +2 down to nearly -5 on the NAO. This would be valid for the end of December/Early January. The EPO looks similar to the numbers of the NAO.

You end up with those indicies in that shape with an active STJ, you are cooking with gas.
 
griteater said:
My thoughts on the upcoming weather pattern and its potential for winter weather in the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic

1UcZWdM.png
Click to expand...

Nicely done grit, appreciate seeing your thoughts. Curious though with the pacific on our side end of the month (potentially, we'll see), -nao, ao, enhanced stj, and colder than average, what it would take to get very good and fantastic ratings? Colder?

And I'd also ask you give rain cold the template so he could do a wamby parody for the outlook with appropriate cynicism. ?
 
SnowNiner said:
Nicely done grit, appreciate seeing your thoughts. Curious though with the pacific on our side end of the month (potentially, we'll see), -nao, ao, enhanced stj, and colder than average, what it would take to get very good and fantastic ratings? Colder?

And I'd also ask you give rain cold the template so he could do a wamby parody for the outlook with appropriate cynicism. ?
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Thank you Niner. Just a little gun shy and don't want to throw a pick 6 on the opening play of the game...but yeah, I'd say the meter will go up if the look improves and confidence goes up. I'd like this end of year look better if it were a month later (better for Nino and SE climatology)

Planning to do these every 5 days, only looking at the Day 15 to 35 timeframe. So, the first 5 day period will roll off each time, etc...i.e. this is a longer range, broad-based outlook. That's the plan anyway. Of course, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson
 
Top drawer stuff grit for we lay winter weather nuts. Thanks. Be nice to see your next 30 day outlook in 2 weeks if you can post another dashboard.

edit: Looks like I missed your follow up comment about doing these every 5 days. Cool beans!
 
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Well it is now met winter and every man for himself! Most posters live in one of 3 main areas. North Georgia, Upstate SC and NC east of the mtns. Of course there are others scattered out but that's probably the majority. Its sad that we all can't get in on each storm. I really can't think of many where the western areas and the eastern areas where hit hard at the same time. If I ever have to watch another Jan 2000 unfold I'll probably snap and ban myself! Give me March 93, March 09, Feb 04, Dec 2018 and so on. But I'm sure areas around RDU wouldn't like any of those to repeat. Maybe that one in Jan 2002 was a board wide but I can't remember. Either way good luck to everyone!
 
Chazwin said:
Nope. It was a +AO, +NAO, and a -PNA. The only things from a cold standpoint that was favorable was a strong PV push southward to meet up with a very moist STJ that was transferring moisture from all the way back towards Hawaii. The MJO was in a favorable phase as well. I’ve said before everything about that winter was horrible from a teleconnections standpoint and how mild overall it was. We just had incredibly lucky timing at peak early January climo to produce a storm that is still unforgettable for those of us that experienced it.
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I will never forget ! 12-16” of powder! Snowed for Atleast 14-18 hours straight temp in single digits and teens! May never experience a bigger snow in my life! Ended as Freezing drizzle and put about a 1/8 th inch of crust on top! Amazing storm!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I will never forget ! 12-16” of powder! Snowed for Atleast 14-18 hours straight temp in single digits and teens! May never experience a bigger snow in my life! Ended as Freezing drizzle and put about a 1/8 th inch of crust on top! Amazing storm!
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The neatest thing was that the storm got started about 8-10 hours earlier than expected… at least in the CLT area. I remember going to bed the evening before and Ray Boylan at WSOC had said “kids plan on going to school in the morning and parents be ready for them to come home early” as the snow wasn’t expected to start until about midday. Instead, the overrunning caused the snow to expand eastward and it started at our house around 4am when my Dad was getting home from his 3rd shift job. School was cancelled very quickly as the roads were getting covered right away and my parents didn’t bother waking my sister and I up, so we woke up around 8am and looked out the window to full light with several inches on the ground and it absolutely ripping outside.
 
Chazwin said:
The neatest thing was that the storm got started about 8-10 hours earlier than expected… at least in the CLT area. I remember going to bed the evening before and Ray Boylan at WSOC had said “kids plan on going to school in the morning and parents be ready for them to come home early” as the snow wasn’t expected to start until about midday. Instead, the overrunning caused the snow to expand eastward and it started at our house around 4am when my Dad was getting home from his 3rd shift job. School was cancelled very quickly as the roads were getting covered right away and my parents didn’t bother waking my sister and I up, so we woke up around 8am and looked out the window to full light with several inches on the ground and it absolutely ripping outside.
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YouTube has good highlights from weather channel on that system. Also, early Feb 1988 had another system but not as strong I think
 
Itryatgolf said:
YouTube has good highlights from weather channel on that system. Also, early Feb 1988 had another system but not as strong I think
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I remember the storm well...It dropped a foot of snow or more from Oklahoma to the Carolinas. Oklahoma City, Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville, and Charlotte were smashed. We may never witness another southern snow storm of this magnitude again.
 
Snowman63 said:
I remember the storm well...It dropped a foot of snow or more from Oklahoma to the Carolinas. Oklahoma City, Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville, and Charlotte were smashed. We may never witness another southern snow storm of this magnitude again.
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Clint, we did in Feb 2021 and actually two systems and it was even colder then. Se of little rock had 20-25 inches then?
 
Itryatgolf said:
Clint, we did in Feb 2021 and actually two systems and it was even colder then. Se of little rock had 20-25 inches then?
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That's true... However, Jan-1988 covered a much larger geographical area in the south. When someone discusses southern sliders, Jan-1988 is the first storm to come to mind for most people.
 
Snowman63 said:
That's true... However, Jan-1988 covered a much larger geographical area in the south. When someone discusses southern sliders, Jan-1988 is the first storm to come to mind for most people.
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You are correct. It was literally from the southern Plains all the way to Cape Hatteras. I think the closest since then was the January 2011 storm but as many in the eastern Carolinas know, that one just dampened out as a new coastal formed that was too far off shore for those folks. I remember watching TWC on the evening of 1/6/88 and the mets on TV that evening mentioned that the south gets that widespread of a major winter storm only every 30 years or so.
 
Snowman63 said:
That's true... However, Jan-1988 covered a much larger geographical area in the south. When someone discusses southern sliders, Jan-1988 is the first storm to come to mind for most people.
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I was 9 and we lived in west memphis ar and snow drifts were over my knees then. Dave Brown said this one looks dangerous lol back then
 
Chazwin said:
The neatest thing was that the storm got started about 8-10 hours earlier than expected… at least in the CLT area. I remember going to bed the evening before and Ray Boylan at WSOC had said “kids plan on going to school in the morning and parents be ready for them to come home early” as the snow wasn’t expected to start until about midday. Instead, the overrunning caused the snow to expand eastward and it started at our house around 4am when my Dad was getting home from his 3rd shift job. School was cancelled very quickly as the roads were getting covered right away and my parents didn’t bother waking my sister and I up, so we woke up around 8am and looked out the window to full light with several inches on the ground and it absolutely ripping outside.
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I don’t remember the timing was supposed to start, but remember waking up in Gastonia about 5 am , and already had a powdery inch or two! Think the high the day before was mid 20s! Truly a once in a lifetime storm!
 
Chazwin said:
You are correct. It was literally from the southern Plains all the way to Cape Hatteras. I think the closest since then was the January 2011 storm but as many in the eastern Carolinas know, that one just dampened out as a new coastal formed that was too far off shore for those folks. I remember watching TWC on the evening of 1/6/88 and the mets on TV that evening mentioned that the south gets that widespread of a major winter storm only every 30 years or so.
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So we're overdue?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Snowman63 said:
That's true... However, Jan-1988 covered a much larger geographical area in the south. When someone discusses southern sliders, Jan-1988 is the first storm to come to mind for most people.
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I don't remember that one, but evidently it crawled up the coast as well. DCA had 9 inches, only 5 at IAD. NYC 4-7.
 
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