Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes there was one in 1993.
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yes there was one in 1993.
NoSnowATL
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I posted these graphics earlier on twitter/"x". They're based on nearly 40 *weighted* El Niño events since 1870, using NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 and a 30-year sliding climatology, whose center year of that climo that lags behind each year by a few decades to properly represent how 2023 compares to the most recent 1991-2020 climatology. This allows for a more accurate assessment of climate change's influence on this year's large-scale circulation & temperature anomalies. Unfortunately, precipitation and especially snowfall data aren't terribly reliable on a global scale prior to the mid 20th century & there just aren't enough moderate-strong & east-based ENSO events to accurately assess ENSO's footprint since 1950.
I'll start with this post showing the typical Dec-Mar 500mb and surface air temperature probabilities, and their respective composite anomalies.
I hope everyone here is able to take something away from this.
I'll start with this post showing the typical Dec-Mar 500mb and surface air temperature probabilities, and their respective composite anomalies.
I hope everyone here is able to take something away from this.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Now, here's a month-by-month breakdown of Northern Hemisphere 500mb height anomaly probabilities for December through March for moderate-strong & east-based El Niños.
Notice how the overall winter circulation pattern progressively evolves from a mild one in December to a cooler/stormy one mid-late winter. In fact, the chances of below average height anomalies are a whopping 80-90% in February over the SE US, which is more than double the in December (~40%). General storminess is likely to even near-certain in winters like this in February, but a near-coin toss in December.
When we often talk about El Niño winters starting out slow, but turning cooler (& potentially snowier) by Jan & esp February, this is why. It's certainly not a guarantee this happens (as the graphics here show), but it's a rather strong tendency that the overwhelming majority of El Nino winters exhibit.
Notice how the overall winter circulation pattern progressively evolves from a mild one in December to a cooler/stormy one mid-late winter. In fact, the chances of below average height anomalies are a whopping 80-90% in February over the SE US, which is more than double the in December (~40%). General storminess is likely to even near-certain in winters like this in February, but a near-coin toss in December.
When we often talk about El Niño winters starting out slow, but turning cooler (& potentially snowier) by Jan & esp February, this is why. It's certainly not a guarantee this happens (as the graphics here show), but it's a rather strong tendency that the overwhelming majority of El Nino winters exhibit.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's a corresponding month-by-month breakdown of CONUS temperature anomaly probabilities in moderate-strong & east-based El Niños:
Interestingly, the chances of a warmer-than-normal December exceed 80% over parts of the lower Great Lakes & NE US.
Interestingly, the chances of a warmer-than-normal December exceed 80% over parts of the lower Great Lakes & NE US.
Nice to see Webber pop up again.
What do you all think about the "Siberian October snow increase theory"? I saw this article today, but thought this theory really didn't work out: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...p&cvid=2a0685b414bb4f87aacdf10ef75a289b&ei=15
What do you all think about the "Siberian October snow increase theory"? I saw this article today, but thought this theory really didn't work out: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...p&cvid=2a0685b414bb4f87aacdf10ef75a289b&ei=15
Itryatgolf
Member
If this verifies or even close, we can punt winter for the most part imo except maybe February unless we like chasing unicorns but it's still early so there is hope for now
Rhyno23
Member
I'm in the pink. Toss as well.
Actually if this verifies it’s what we want for Jan, Feb, and march. What do you mean punt?
Itryatgolf
Member
It's a slang for giving up on a certain month on winter weather and thinking about the next month. East based niños are usually warmer than average and typically wetter than average around here. Just a hyper STJ
jeremyt
Member
Most mean if it’s not wall to wall cold and snows every other day from Dec to Mar then it’s a toss! That’s said tongue in cheek but I’m seriously wondering why many think that if December doesn’t produce then we lose winter?
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tennessee storm
Member
This is definitely east based, I can’t get excited yet . Plus the strength of the nino
Itryatgolf
Member
I've heard correlations with a cold October leads to colder winter, but I have my doubts. Also, we don't want a colder November after a colder October is what I've heard as well. What we do want is a few winter storm chances this winter so we have tracking opportunities
In my experiences down south, a big cold shot or big snowstorm in the mountains in October, usually equates to a crap winter 8 out of ten times! See October storm of 1991 Halloween storm, Mt Mitchell got like 4’ of snow, if I recall it was a crappy winter that followed!?
Also the Halloween 2011 storm and we all know how bad 2011-12 was
jeremyt
Member
Not winter wise off of that run south of New England anyway!
I'm mostly kidding, but the "theory" is any kind of big storm (nor'easter or hurricane) around Halloween signifies an upcoming warm winter.
jeremyt
Member
Understood!
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I think that theory is about as reliable as looking at wooly worms.