It doesn't seem uncommon for that to happen. It will be nice when we get that showing up inside of 10 days.It’s like we were getting some good looks on the Ext models, then they went away…and now coming back some
It doesn't seem uncommon for that to happen. It will be nice when we get that showing up inside of 10 days.It’s like we were getting some good looks on the Ext models, then they went away…and now coming back some
I thought winter was over before it began though?It doesn't seem uncommon for that to happen. It will be nice when we get that showing up inside of 10 days.
Winter be messing with people's minds.I thought winter was over before it began though?
Never get too high, never get too low. A lot like sports.Winter be messing with people's minds.
Models can’t handle big pattern changes well! Was it 2018, they went back and forth of it getting very cold after Christmas, then it finally dialed in on a very cold stretch in early Jan and a good snow/ice event for most?It’s like we were getting some good looks on the Ext models, then they went away…and now coming back some
Yes, I do kind of recall it going down that way. Jan 2018 was pretty epic overallModels can’t handle big pattern changes well! Was it 2018, they went back and forth of it getting very cold after Christmas, then it finally dialed in on a very cold stretch in early Jan and a good snow/ice event for most?
The ridging north of AK looks good.
I remember after that early December 2017 storm, models were indicating that it would be fairly mild through most of the month, but then started flipping back around mid month and when it got cold a couple days after Christmas, it stayed locked pretty much till about the last week of January.Models can’t handle big pattern changes well! Was it 2018, they went back and forth of it getting very cold after Christmas, then it finally dialed in on a very cold stretch in early Jan and a good snow/ice event for most?
How do you already know what’s happening mid January lolDec 16: thoughts on the pattern ahead...
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I hope this bust terribly lol. I suspect you secretly hope so too!Dec 16: thoughts on the pattern ahead...
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Dec 16: thoughts on the pattern ahead...
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Selfishly I would love the trof in the west for early to mid Jan since going to Tahoe mid Jan for a week. I would like to see the trof swing underneath and into the SE. and then let it crash into the east after that.I know this isn't the most popular opinion on here, but I'd actually like to see the trough go out into the west-central US for a little bit during the first half or so of January then come eastward late month & then we can really try to cash in after that.
It's in our best interest to at least fill in all the bare ground over the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes before we take a shot a big dog. It'll take some decent central-western troughing to make that happen in a meaningful way.
View attachment 138671
Do you know the correlation of snow cover to winter storms in the SE? It's obviously important to have so the air is not modified especially in CAD events.Snow cover extent is now the lowest on record for N America for at least the last 20 years. Only expecting this to get worse over the coming few weeks.
Bleh.
View attachment 138675
Not Webb, but I would think that 95% or more of widespread southeast winter storms have snow cover down to about I-70.Do you know the correlation of snow cover to winter storms in the SE? It's obviously important to have so the air is not modified especially in CAD events.
It looks like a ridge is trying to develop over Alaska or retrograting canadian ridge west imoAll 3 ens, show some level of retraction of the GOAK low now View attachment 138681View attachment 138682View attachment 138683
I would kill for someone to make these nice maps for Georgia. I know you’ve done it for the entire SE a couple of times.Wasn't sure what thread to post this in, but I finally put together a preliminary freezing rain frequency climatology map together for NC using estimates from a collection storms that encompass the last 31 years.
The Triad area is the freezing rain capital of NC & arguably the SE US + southern-mid Atlantic as a whole.
NC Ice Storm Maps (1992-2023)
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It would be almost impossible with as bad as the record keeping is in this state.I would kill for someone to make these nice maps for Georgia. I know you’ve done it for the entire SE a couple of times.
Great work man!
Wasn't sure what thread to post this in, but I finally put together a preliminary freezing rain frequency climatology map together for NC using estimates from a collection storms that encompass the last 31 years.
The Triad area is the freezing rain capital of NC & arguably the SE US + southern-mid Atlantic as a whole.
NC Ice Storm Maps (1992-2023)
View attachment 138685
Those numbers are dropping fast as even tree toppers are non existent now.
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Go check out JB video today if you haven't already. He mentions about a forecaster competition that is on his page that any good forecaster, like yourself, can enter.These values are likely a slight underestimate of reality, as there are many nickel + dime events I probably haven't found yet.
Really good agreement too on both the GEFS and GEPS as well. Also the process that starts it really kinda gets going next weekend so it’s not exactly in fantasy land.Exactly what you want to see. Ridge backing up towards the N.W territories and AK, and the TPV in Baffin Bay starting to sink south View attachment 138703
Yep. Think the #1 thing to watch and hope not for is another momentum surge in the jet that puts us back in square one, or keeps the GOAK vortex in place with the can blockReally good agreement too on both the GEFS and GEPS as well. Also the process that starts it really kinda gets going next weekend so it’s not exactly in fantasy land.
Absolutely. Fortunately, what we’re seeing on the ensembles is pretty much following how you would expect a moderate to strong El Nino to evolve.Yep. Think the #1 thing to watch and hope not for is another momentum surge in the jet that puts us back in square one, or keeps the GOAK vortex in place with the can block
Right where we want it,goofy is rarely right
Exactly what you want to see. Ridge backing up towards the N.W territories and AK, and the TPV in Baffin Bay starting to sink south View attachment 138703
Yep. Patience.Absolutely. Fortunately, what we’re seeing on the ensembles is pretty much following how you would expect a moderate to strong El Nino to evolve.
Not really. This week looks to be the peak of the Pacific air getting pushed into North America. It looks like the few days around Christmas is going to be well above average… especially with overnight lows.December may end up below normal now. Really good shot
Greensboro sitting at 1.9 AN. Should be right at average by late week. You are correct next weekend is AN, but Dec 28,29,30,31 have a long shot to offset that. Still not the toaster that was being advertised, thats for sure. And I was one of them.Not really. This week looks to be the peak of the Pacific air getting pushed into North America. It looks like the few days around Christmas is going to be well above average… especially with overnight lows.
December may end up below normal now. Really good shot
y late week. You are correct next weekend is AN, but Dec 28,29,30,31 have a long shot to offset that. Still not the toaster that was being advertised, thats for sure. And I was one of them.
Bet we end up closer to normal than we are now..... Second half will average less than +2 almost a garrantee.No.
Most ensembles show near neutral temperatures for the remainder of the month. Unless GSO averages -2F or less the rest of the way, that's not happening.