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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

griteater said:
It’s like we were getting some good looks on the Ext models, then they went away…and now coming back some
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It doesn't seem uncommon for that to happen. It will be nice when we get that showing up inside of 10 days.
 
Speaking of flip-flopping.

We went from this eye candy yesterday:
ps2png-worker-commands-64f9dd744-qd67b-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-UGLK0V.png

To this can-kicking suite today.
ps2png-worker-commands-64f9dd744-qd67b-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-GO7xY_.png

Not that there are any guarantees that an early SSWE will make this winter epic, but I'd really like to see a full-blown reversal in this El Nino year just to see what happens.

Hopefully, things flip back strongly again tomorrow.
 
griteater said:
It’s like we were getting some good looks on the Ext models, then they went away…and now coming back some
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Models can’t handle big pattern changes well! Was it 2018, they went back and forth of it getting very cold after Christmas, then it finally dialed in on a very cold stretch in early Jan and a good snow/ice event for most?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Models can’t handle big pattern changes well! Was it 2018, they went back and forth of it getting very cold after Christmas, then it finally dialed in on a very cold stretch in early Jan and a good snow/ice event for most?
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Yes, I do kind of recall it going down that way. Jan 2018 was pretty epic overall
 
Tarheel1 said:
Models can’t handle big pattern changes well! Was it 2018, they went back and forth of it getting very cold after Christmas, then it finally dialed in on a very cold stretch in early Jan and a good snow/ice event for most?
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I remember after that early December 2017 storm, models were indicating that it would be fairly mild through most of the month, but then started flipping back around mid month and when it got cold a couple days after Christmas, it stayed locked pretty much till about the last week of January.
 
griteater said:
Dec 16: thoughts on the pattern ahead...

BP6xV76.png
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So essentially, the jet is too strong/east, and as it retracts past the sweet spot, we'll have a week of favorable pattern, then it retracts too far and puts the trough back out west where it loves to be. :(. Seems about right. Really good parameters grit to understand where we are though, thank you.
 
I know this isn't the most popular opinion on here, but I'd actually like to see the trough go out into the west-central US for a little bit during the first half or so of January then come eastward late month & then we can really try to cash in after that.


It's in our best interest to at least fill in all the bare ground over the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes before we take a shot a big dog. It'll take some decent central-western troughing to make that happen in a meaningful way.



plot_anom_sdep.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know this isn't the most popular opinion on here, but I'd actually like to see the trough go out into the west-central US for a little bit during the first half or so of January then come eastward late month & then we can really try to cash in after that.


It's in our best interest to at least fill in all the bare ground over the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes before we take a shot a big dog. It'll take some decent central-western troughing to make that happen in a meaningful way.



View attachment 138671
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Selfishly I would love the trof in the west for early to mid Jan since going to Tahoe mid Jan for a week. I would like to see the trof swing underneath and into the SE. and then let it crash into the east after that.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Snow cover extent is now the lowest on record for N America for at least the last 20 years. Only expecting this to get worse over the coming few weeks.

Bleh.

View attachment 138675
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Do you know the correlation of snow cover to winter storms in the SE? It's obviously important to have so the air is not modified especially in CAD events.
 
GaStorm said:
Do you know the correlation of snow cover to winter storms in the SE? It's obviously important to have so the air is not modified especially in CAD events.
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Not Webb, but I would think that 95% or more of widespread southeast winter storms have snow cover down to about I-70.
 
Wasn't sure what thread to post this in, but I finally put together a preliminary freezing rain frequency climatology map together for NC using estimates from a collection storms that encompass the last 31 years.

The Triad area is the freezing rain capital of NC & arguably the SE US + southern-mid Atlantic as a whole.

NC Ice Storm Maps (1992-2023)
NC Freezing Rain (ZR) Events Per Year Climatology 1992-2023v3.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wasn't sure what thread to post this in, but I finally put together a preliminary freezing rain frequency climatology map together for NC using estimates from a collection storms that encompass the last 31 years.

The Triad area is the freezing rain capital of NC & arguably the SE US + southern-mid Atlantic as a whole.

NC Ice Storm Maps (1992-2023)
View attachment 138685
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I would kill for someone to make these nice maps for Georgia. I know you’ve done it for the entire SE a couple of times.

Great work man!
 
Jrips2710 said:
I would kill for someone to make these nice maps for Georgia. I know you’ve done it for the entire SE a couple of times.

Great work man!
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It would be almost impossible with as bad as the record keeping is in this state.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Wasn't sure what thread to post this in, but I finally put together a preliminary freezing rain frequency climatology map together for NC using estimates from a collection storms that encompass the last 31 years.

The Triad area is the freezing rain capital of NC & arguably the SE US + southern-mid Atlantic as a whole.

NC Ice Storm Maps (1992-2023)
View attachment 138685
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Those numbers are dropping fast as even tree toppers are non existent now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
These values are likely a slight underestimate of reality, as there are many nickel + dime events I probably haven't found yet.
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Go check out JB video today if you haven't already. He mentions about a forecaster competition that is on his page that any good forecaster, like yourself, can enter.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Exactly what you want to see. Ridge backing up towards the N.W territories and AK, and the TPV in Baffin Bay starting to sink south View attachment 138703
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Really good agreement too on both the GEFS and GEPS as well. Also the process that starts it really kinda gets going next weekend so it’s not exactly in fantasy land.
 
Chazwin said:
Really good agreement too on both the GEFS and GEPS as well. Also the process that starts it really kinda gets going next weekend so it’s not exactly in fantasy land.
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Yep. Think the #1 thing to watch and hope not for is another momentum surge in the jet that puts us back in square one, or keeps the GOAK vortex in place with the can block
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep. Think the #1 thing to watch and hope not for is another momentum surge in the jet that puts us back in square one, or keeps the GOAK vortex in place with the can block
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Absolutely. Fortunately, what we’re seeing on the ensembles is pretty much following how you would expect a moderate to strong El Nino to evolve.
 
NCSNOW said:
December may end up below normal now. Really good shot
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Not really. This week looks to be the peak of the Pacific air getting pushed into North America. It looks like the few days around Christmas is going to be well above average… especially with overnight lows.
 
Chazwin said:
Not really. This week looks to be the peak of the Pacific air getting pushed into North America. It looks like the few days around Christmas is going to be well above average… especially with overnight lows.
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Greensboro sitting at 1.9 AN. Should be right at average by late week. You are correct next weekend is AN, but Dec 28,29,30,31 have a long shot to offset that. Still not the toaster that was being advertised, thats for sure. And I was one of them.
 
NCSNOW said:
NCSNOW said:
December may end up below normal now. Really good shot
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y late week. You are correct next weekend is AN, but Dec 28,29,30,31 have a long shot to offset that. Still not the toaster that was being advertised, thats for sure. And I was one of them.
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No.

Most ensembles show near neutral temperatures for the remainder of the month. Unless GSO averages -2F or less the rest of the way, that's not happening.
 
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