This is the most textbook +PNA you can get. If we can get that Baffin Bay TPV to sink further south, that’s a valid cold source 
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
Incoming on the GFS.
Even the gefs, which was more central Canadian block happy and further east with that GOAK low, has recently looked much more like the EPS. Worth noting this is a 5 day mean 
packfan98
Moderator
This would be fun to get folks on the board during the first week in January.
NCSNOW
Member
12z Canadian Stops at hr 240/ Dec 28th. But it supports that date as the pattern changer bullseye. Looks similar to Eps, GFS op advertising a pattern reshuffle.
Initially acknowledging this is out in fantasy land, I personally would like this outcome. But it would be real nice to get an eastern storm where I don't have to sweat out the transition line (Wake County cut off). And to give some of our friends down east some snow.
Would be awesome but a bit skeptical of any long range forecast! Would love to see a few runs or days of consistency to see a ridge in the west!
At this point something to track would be a huge win. Feels like it’s been forever since we had a classic 200 page storm thread.
NCSNOW
Member
The rainbstorm thread we just did is the only one,outside severe,tropics in 2 years to my knowledge lol
Something I would also watch in the next week is how much snow cover is able to hold on in eastern Canada. That region has been able keep a decent snow pack unlike areas out west. If the snowpack can hold on there, it could help areas east of the mountains to get in the game sooner with good CAD.
SnowNiner
Member
There's no blocking, -nao on the EPS, but I've come to the conclusion we'll never have a good Atlantic and Pacific at the same time. To me it looks great, Alaska ridge is tall enough to get us cold enough, with the southern stream active sending pulses to our south and off the coast. Would be a trackable time at least. Hope it doesn't disappear, and GEFS keeps going for a beautiful start to January.
I really, really don't want to have to put my hope in a February pattern change.
Yeah me either. I know we haven't had many El Ninos lately which are know for cold February's. But we've had plenty of La Ninas that are known for cold December's and haven't managed but one since 2010 that was below average and that was after a historic cold shot last year. GSP finished -2.2 February hasn't been much better since 2015 so it's going to take me seeing a good February pattern this year to believe it.
That guy with the initials JB has said that date for several weeks now for big change. Also has said good potential first of January he would think but we shall see
SnowNiner
Member
At this point I'll settle for not seeing Cherry trees blooming everywhere the second week of February. If it's cold enough to keep that from happening, score. Lol.
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Euro control was incoming at the end.
Post it?
Looks like the models are hinting a change is coming.
Best panels below on today's Euro Weeklies...
Jan 1 to Jan 8
Jan 26 to Groundhog Day
Not a single day from Dec 29 to Feb 2 on the run has above normal temperatures in the southeast (850mb temperature anomalies)
Jan 1 to Jan 8
Jan 26 to Groundhog Day
Not a single day from Dec 29 to Feb 2 on the run has above normal temperatures in the southeast (850mb temperature anomalies)
MJO 8/1/2 for the end of December and 1st ten days or more into January. What's not to love?
Can we keep it through all of January? It has no problems spending long periods of time in bad phases.MJO 8/1/2 for the end of December and 1st ten days or more into January. What's not to love?
Maybe. I'll take a period within the COD before a return into 8/1/2 which seems doable.
ATLwxfan
Member
Tough time seeing this play out in reality. Thats a long stretch.
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Yesterday's 18z GEFS vs today's for Jan 2. Improvement on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides
Nomanslandva
Member
no shutout here this year! 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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No accumulation in the valley yet but looks great for you. I know it’s been awhile.
Nomanslandva
Member
You back in the low lands for Christmas?
Bannerdude
Member
Hear a few IPs hitting the metal roof and porch furniture as the precipitation starts in Durham
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I’m not home but watching the ring camera, it definitely ain’t just rain
You guys are going to make me go outside in a few minutes to look/listen for random sleet.
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Sean from AmericanWx who lives about four miles south of me has confirmed snow/sleet/rain.
Bannerdude
Member
Add in quite a few area mPING reports of various forms of frozen water in the last 20 minutes.
Something is happening out there
NCHighCountryWX
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Radar looks like some sleet just south of me from RDU over to Wake Forest: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=RAX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad
Brent
Member
Our TV met is also teasing much colder air around NYE
Now granted his track record at this range has been rather poor but still
Now granted his track record at this range has been rather poor but still
Nothing here at the moment.
NCSNOW
Member
They should be able to build that base up pretty good the next several days to end up with a pretty good week between Christmas and New Year… even with the mild temperatures coming in later this week.