Prestige Worldwide
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Itryatgolf
Member
Eric is smart. No denying that. I still feel personally if the tropical forcing stays around the dateline or 180w, we will have opportunities at cold and snow this winter. Probably still the typical back half of winter.
tennessee storm
Member
Think we are heading toward a
Nino on steroids be honest ….
Nino on steroids be honest ….
Cad Wedge NC
Member
El nino will be peaking very soon. Absolutely no chance of a super Nino. MEI is still in weak range. For all practical purposes, we are looking at an atmosphere that acts like a weak to moderate nino despite what 3.4 temps say. That's why we haven't seen the subtropical jet fire up yet. The atmosphere has not fully recovered from that triple dip Nina.
Itryatgolf
Member
The atmosphere is clearly in -AAM state which is niña
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tennessee storm
Member
Models r showing peaking mid winter actually. We have a ways to go still
Itryatgolf
Member
November euro seasonal is pretty interesting for Jan and Feb?. Dec is not ?lol
tennessee storm
Member
It’s amazing the number of posters over American wx have punted most this winter already, which I think is pre mature ….
Regarding basing winter outlooks on solely the ENSO state, here's a little humble pie.
Aleet! ALEET! ALEET! This is not a drill! 
W
WSW
Guest
We take.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I don't think anyone on here was basing the winter outlook on ENSO state alone. That's just one piece of the pie. El nino just means that the subtropical jet will be across the southern US. It's up to other factors like PNA and NAO to make the winter. I look at the prospects of high latitude blocking (AO/NAO) more than any one index. When you couple our current ENSO state with a -NAO it will average below normal in our neck of the woods 100% of those winters
Brent
Member
I still say there's no way it's worse than last year ? I mean how can it be ? there were major cities on the east coast that got less snow than us...
Now whether it's any good or not is another matter
Now whether it's any good or not is another matter
Snowmiser33
Member
Hey guys new poster here I love winter weather and I just moved to the south from Minnesota.. Hope to learn as much as possible from you experts through this upcoming winter
Best advice I can give you if you love winter weather is to move back to Minnesota….I kid I kid. But not really. Welcome though!
jeremyt
Member
The dynamics here are like threading yarn through a fine needle ?! There are many here that are well versed in setups but at the end of the day it’s anyone’s guess. Not like where you are from where you can seeing it coming for a week! Timing on everything is key here.
W
WSW
Guest
Wait a minute. You moved from MInnesota to Phenix City and you love winter weather????? OH man.?
Broken024
Member
No one tell him
SnowNiner
Member
So, it's November, time for predictions for the winter to come out in full force. Here are my two cents.
I don't understand the intricacies of the Nino and east based, etc. However I feel that they're generally wet so I think the winter will have moisture around. But really who knows? Ninos act like Ninas and vice versa based on pacific forcing, so I don't put much stock in them anymore. Temperatures I believe will be warm overall, 3-5 degrees above normal. This is simply because that's what it always is, we always have warmer than normal winters IMBY. I'm not sure I remember the last time it was overall cooler than average so I'm betting the streak. So, wet, generally warm but periods of cold based on when the pacific jet hits the sweet spot. When it's in the right spot for a western ridge/eastern trough, we'll have a shot at winter weather. When it's retreated, or on steroids, we're warm. Honestly I think this is our winters for the foreseeable future.
Will the pacific jet be in the right spot enough to get us winter weather? I don't know. It seems like the MJO has had a significant influence the last few years, so I'll be watching that.
I don't understand the intricacies of the Nino and east based, etc. However I feel that they're generally wet so I think the winter will have moisture around. But really who knows? Ninos act like Ninas and vice versa based on pacific forcing, so I don't put much stock in them anymore. Temperatures I believe will be warm overall, 3-5 degrees above normal. This is simply because that's what it always is, we always have warmer than normal winters IMBY. I'm not sure I remember the last time it was overall cooler than average so I'm betting the streak. So, wet, generally warm but periods of cold based on when the pacific jet hits the sweet spot. When it's in the right spot for a western ridge/eastern trough, we'll have a shot at winter weather. When it's retreated, or on steroids, we're warm. Honestly I think this is our winters for the foreseeable future.
Will the pacific jet be in the right spot enough to get us winter weather? I don't know. It seems like the MJO has had a significant influence the last few years, so I'll be watching that.