• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

SnowNiner said:
I'd have to agree. I find it very hard to believe the month of February, in any enso regime is going to be cold considering the last 10 years.
Click to expand...

Like I’ve said before, we haven’t had an El Niño like this in about 10 years. I wouldn’t factor recent history much into this at all.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Like I’ve said before, we haven’t had an El Niño like this in about 10 years. I wouldn’t factor recent history much into this at all.
Click to expand...

I hear you, and hope you're right Webb. I'm just not sure everything works the way it's supposed to anymore. Don't worry, you're on record, we get a cold and stormy February, you notch a win:).
 
Dec 27 - my thoughts on the pattern ahead (Day 10-30 forecast)...

uGlwe8r.png



And here is my experimental Pac Jet Index where I use: 1) Model Ensemble Output, 2) AAM/GWO/GSDM, 3) Tropical Forcing/MJO, and 4) Forecaster Input to attempt to forecast the eastern extent of the Pac Jet (90 knots at 200mb / 5-day average), to aid in the 10-30 day outlook

Pac Jet eastern extent in: 1) Purple box = retracted jet / -PNA pattern 2) Blue box = +EPO if jet is reaching poleward; -EPO and/or +PNA if jet is extending west to east 3) Red box = +EPO if jet is ext & reaching poleward; Strong zonal flow if jet is extending west to east

In addition, one has to factor in whether the jet is in the process of extending or retracting into these boxes when determining the resultant pattern.

PBcNOpT.png
 
griteater said:
Dec 27 - my thoughts on the pattern ahead (Day 10-30 forecast)...

uGlwe8r.png



And here is my experimental Pac Jet Index where I use: 1) Model Ensemble Output, 2) AAM/GWO/GSDM, 3) Tropical Forcing/MJO, and 4) Forecaster Input to attempt to forecast the eastern extent of the Pac Jet (90 knots at 200mb / 5-day average), to aid in the 10-30 day outlook

Pac Jet eastern extent in: 1) Purple box = retracted jet / -PNA pattern 2) Blue box = +EPO if jet is reaching poleward; -EPO and/or +PNA if jet is extending west to east 3) Red box = +EPO if jet is ext & reaching poleward; Strong zonal flow if jet is extending west to east

In addition, one has to factor in whether the jet is in the process of extending or retracting into these boxes when determining the resultant pattern.

PBcNOpT.png
Click to expand...
Kicking can still continues unfortunately ? I'm curious when will most know if the SSW will happen or at least a split for sure or not. I'm still hoping it does
 
Itryatgolf said:
Kicking can still continues unfortunately ? I'm curious when will most know if the SSW will happen or at least a split for sure or not. I'm still hoping it does
Click to expand...
It can happen anytime. We just need before end of Jan or so to help our area. Beyond that propagation to make a difference gets really pushed out of prime time.
 
CaryWx said:
It can happen anytime. We just need before end of Jan or so to help our area. Beyond that propagation to make a difference gets really pushed out of prime time.
Click to expand...
If it happens late, it will do most of us outside higher elevations no good. We do have a -qbo and typically it promotes a SSW from what I've learned
 
griteater said:
Dec 27 - my thoughts on the pattern ahead (Day 10-30 forecast)...

uGlwe8r.png



And here is my experimental Pac Jet Index where I use: 1) Model Ensemble Output, 2) AAM/GWO/GSDM, 3) Tropical Forcing/MJO, and 4) Forecaster Input to attempt to forecast the eastern extent of the Pac Jet (90 knots at 200mb / 5-day average), to aid in the 10-30 day outlook

Pac Jet eastern extent in: 1) Purple box = retracted jet / -PNA pattern 2) Blue box = +EPO if jet is reaching poleward; -EPO and/or +PNA if jet is extending west to east 3) Red box = +EPO if jet is ext & reaching poleward; Strong zonal flow if jet is extending west to east

In addition, one has to factor in whether the jet is in the process of extending or retracting into these boxes when determining the resultant pattern.

PBcNOpT.png
Click to expand...
Dang I can’t even lie, that sucks.
 
I’m still in the camp that I expect we get some looks by mid January. Specifically east of the mountains. Trough dumping west and
-NAO means Miller B/CAD potential. It won’t be the board wide stuff but those in the CAD regions I think have a solid chance at a storm even before February
 
iGRXY said:
I’m still in the camp that I expect we get some looks by mid January. Specifically east of the mountains. Trough dumping west and
-NAO means Miller B/CAD potential. It won’t be the board wide stuff but those in the CAD regions I think have a solid chance at a storm even before February
Click to expand...
When do we see the board wife stuff. Never?
 
Itryatgolf said:
If it happens late, it will do most of us outside higher elevations no good. We do have a -qbo and typically it promotes a SSW from what I've learned
Click to expand...

It’s very likely going to happen but based on recent history the cold probably dumps out west or into Europe.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Just to clear the air here on some of the previous misleading commentary on here that talked about winter basically being "over" if we have to wait til the end of January or early February for a winter storm this year.

When you actually look at the data, you actually find that for "major" winter storms (4"+ snows or 0.25"+ of ice) in central NC during moderate-strong El Niño winters, 50% of them actually occur after February 5th. I.e. winter is only half over by Feb 5th in El Niños.

Only 10% of "major" winter storms occur before January 1st, and a third of them even by the middle of January during Nino winters.

We're still about 5 weeks away even from the half way point of the winter this year.

We've got a very long ways to go folks. Even if the next few-several weeks produce little to nothing, winter is very far from over.


Screenshot 2023-12-27 at 6.54.33 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just to clear the air here on some of the previous misleading commentary on here that talked about winter basically being "over" if we have to wait til the end of January or early February for a winter storm this year.

When you actually look at the data, you actually find that for "major" winter storms (4"+ snows or 0.25"+ of ice) in central NC during moderate-strong El Niño winters, 50% of them actually occur after February 5th. I.e. winter is only half over by Feb 5th in El Niños.

Only 10% of "major" winter storms occur before January 1st, and a third of them even by the middle of January during Nino winters.

We're still about 5 weeks away even from the half way point of the winter this year.

We've got a very long ways to go folks. Even if the next few-several weeks produce little to nothing, winter is very far from over.


View attachment 139217
Click to expand...
My question is in todays climate how much should we look at stats from the past. I feel like things are changing (for the worst) so fast that what happened years ago don’t even matter as much anymore. What do you think?
 
Stevo24 said:
My question is in todays climate how much should we look at stats from the past. I feel like things are changing (for the worst) so fast that what happened years ago don’t even matter as much anymore. What do you think?
Click to expand...

I've seen it snow in February, March, & April many times in the last decade or two, & the bulk of those big cases post-January occur in Nino winters. This year is basically following the composite historical Nino evolution to a T, the warm December is right on par w/ what I expected to see.

It usually doesn't snow by this point in the winter in most years like this. The facts simply don't back up what you're getting at.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've seen it snow in February, March, & April many times in the last decade or two, & the bulk of those big cases post-January occur in Nino winters. This year is basically following the composite historical Nino evolution to a T, the warm December is right on par w/ what I expected to see.

It usually doesn't snow by this point in the winter in most years like this. The facts simply don't back up what you're getting at.
Click to expand...
So let’s say that we get to April and there has been no significant snow storms for majority of us. Would you call that out of the norm for an El Niño winter? Or would you just call that living in the southeast. I don’t know all of the stats but I’m sure you know. Have we had more El Niño’s produce significant snowfall than not for the southeast in the last say 30 years? Just trying to pick your brain.
 
Stevo24 said:
So let’s say that we get to April and there has been no significant snow storms for majority of us. Would you call that out of the norm for an El Niño winter? Or would you just call that living in the southeast. I don’t know all of the stats but I’m sure you know. Have we had more El Niño’s produce significant snowfall than not for the southeast in the last say 30 years? Just trying to pick your brain.
Click to expand...

The most recent 40 years of moderate-strong El Niño winters have generally panned out like this:

You see a theme here?

2015-16: Unusually warm December, winter turned it on mid-late January & into Feb.

2009-10: blockbuster winter, especially late January & Feb

2002-03: historic ice storm in December, then barrage of winter storms beginning mid-late Jan & into Feb

1997-98: Significant western Piedmont winter storm in late Dec, moderate-sized event in mid-Jan.

1994-95: Notable ice storm mid Feb

1987-88: Big winter storm in early Jan.

1986-87: A whole lotta nothing until about mid-late January & February

1982-83: Not much in the way of winter until late January & February. Big winter storm in late March too.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The most recent 40 years of moderate-strong El Niño winters have generally panned out like this:

You see a theme here?

2015-16: Unusually warm December, winter turned it on mid-late January & into Feb.

2009-10: blockbuster winter, especially late January & Feb

2002-03: historic ice storm in December, then barrage of winter storms beginning mid-late Jan & into Feb

1997-98: Significant western Piedmont winter storm in late Dec, moderate-sized event in mid-Jan.

1994-95: Notable ice storm mid Feb

1987-88: Big winter storm in early Jan.

1986-87: A whole lotta nothing until about mid-late January & February

1982-83: Not much in the way of winter until late January & February. Big winter storm in late March too.
Click to expand...
I think there's still some residual water vapor from the Honga Tonga eruption in the stratosphere which is a greenhouse gas.

mls_h2o_qbo_lat_45S-45N_26hPa.png
Also, oceans are quite warm now.
F-USiaXXgAA5eMB
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm unsure why we end up punting January and Decembers most years now regardless of ENSO status.
Click to expand...


I definitely think you are onto something. I don’t think that today’s climate state neatly fits the molds of 10 or 15 years ago. Our climate is largely dominated by the Pacific jet. The influence of MJO needs to be rethought. The PV seems to prefer dumping into Northern Europe and Siberia. We’ve got to just come to grips with this at some point. It doesn’t mean it will never get cold, and it will never snow, It’s just going to be different.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
severestorm said:
I think there's still some residual water vapor from the Honga Tonga eruption in the stratosphere which is a greenhouse gas.

mls_h2o_qbo_lat_45S-45N_26hPa.png
Also, oceans are quite warm now.
F-USiaXXgAA5eMB
Click to expand...

The evolution of this winter thus far is not fundamentally different at all from what's expected in El Niños, despite the warming background climate.

In fact, it's insane how closely this year has been following the composite evolution thus far (which I posted in here and on social media in early-mid Nov):

Relative cold snap in late Nov - early Dec ✅

Relative warm-up in mid-late December, warmest part of the winter (vs normal) likely near Christmas ✅

Relative cool-down (again) in early January ✅

Not much in the way of snow through early-mid January ✅

Not sure how much more El Niño you can get than what we've seen this year.

Keep in mind: the initial question here is actually talking about whether the evolution of the winter has fundamentally changed in recent decades s.t. late Jan - Feb is becoming less favored during El Niño years.

The answer to that is absolutely no. In fact, it's actually going the other way in recent times, with even more emphasis being placed on late winter, esp in El Niños.

Sure, we've had a lot of warm Februarys lately, but most of this came during non-Nino winters and we've had even more warm Decembers during the same period.

In fact, the last below normal December in the SE US as a whole was back in 2010. Every one since then has been above or well above average temperature wise.

I would actually argue there's a more concerning long-term trend here for La Niña winters (which tend to "front load" much of their cold/snow)


F-tBOwLWIAAsww3.jpeg


F-_Osyza4AAY5Kq.jpeg

cdas-all-east-t2m_f_anom_10day_back-1701518400-1703678400-10-1.gif



ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-t2m_f_anom_7day-4780000.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The evolution of this winter thus far is not fundamentally different at all from what's expected in El Niños, despite the warming background climate.

In fact, it's insane how closely this year has been following the composite evolution thus far (which I posted in here and on social media in early-mid Nov):

Relative cold snap in late Nov - early Dec ✅

Relative warm-up in mid-late December, warmest part of the winter (vs normal) likely near Christmas ✅

Relative cool-down (again) in early January ✅

Not much in the way of snow through early-mid January ✅

Not sure how much more El Niño you can get than what we've seen this year.

Keep in mind: the initial question here is actually talking about whether the evolution of the winter has fundamentally changed in recent decades s.t. late Jan - Feb is becoming less favored during El Niño years.

The answer to that is absolutely no. In fact, it's actually going the other way in recent times, with even more emphasis being placed on late winter, esp in El Niños.

Sure, we've had a lot of warm Februarys lately, but most of this came during non-Nino winters and we've had even more warm Decembers during the same period.

In fact, the last below normal December in the SE US as a whole was back in 2010. Every one since then has been above or well above average temperature wise.

I would actually argue there's a more concerning long-term trend here for La Niña winters (which tend to "front load" much of their cold/snow)


View attachment 139221


View attachment 139224

View attachment 139222



View attachment 139223
Click to expand...
My point was this being a exceptional year because of Honga Tonga, and there's really no matching analog to this.
 
severestorm said:
You are 100% certain your prediction of a above average snowfall and snowy January/February. Lets see how that pans out....
Click to expand...
In his defense I don’t think he ever made a prediction for above average snowfall at all. Not that I remember. Could be wrong. He did say he was leaning on the best chances in late January early February.
 
severestorm said:
You are 100% certain your prediction of a above average snowfall and snowy January/February. Lets see how that pans out....
Click to expand...

No. However, I'm laying out a ton of reasons why this winter isn't deviating at all from the historical paradigm, despite the recent obvious climate changes.
 
Twister said:
Where did he predict an above Average Snowfall? I just remember him saying Chances would be much better end of Jan early Feb of seeing Snow

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Climatology usually favors end of Jan into February for best chances of winter storms most but not all winters
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top