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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

LukeBarrette said:
The January spike is interesting, thanks for the insight! Feb or bust!
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That January spike has been there even in some really great El Niño winters. January 2003 and 2010 both had long stretches of southeastern mild weather in January before the pattern flipped to multiple winter storms.
 
Chazwin said:
That January spike has been there even in some really great El Niño winters. January 2003 and 2010 both had long stretches of southeastern mild weather in January before the pattern flipped to multiple winter storms.
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Yep, I remember it was warm until roughly the 18th or so of the month. That was the month of the last commercial plane crash at Charlotte and I remember it being 70ish.
 
BullCityWx said:
Yep, I remember it was warm until roughly the 18th or so of the month. That was the month of the last commercial plane crash at Charlotte and I remember it being 70ish.
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A week before the 1/29-1/30/2010 winter storm, there was actually a severe weather outbreak in the southeast.
 
I am banking on rest of this month finish slightly above average temps , December will be fairly mild , wouldn’t suprise me see couple severe wx events in southeast … big time pattern flip after first week
January to cold and least couple good shots at winter storms … then on to February starts out cold with another shot of a winter storm
 
tennessee storm said:
I am banking on rest of this month finish slightly above average temps , December will be fairly mild , wouldn’t suprise me see couple severe wx events in southeast … big time pattern flip after first week
January to cold and least couple good shots at winter storms … then on to February starts out cold with another shot of a winter storm
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I definitely agree with you on a mild December… not quite December 2015 mild, but definitely enough to save money on the heating bill. After that I think we might see a quick cold shot in the first 10 days of January before warming back up until the last 10 days of the month
 
Just just usual winter warnings;

1. The QPF map shows previous precip that has fallen in the 6hrs before the image.

2. The 6hr average precipitation map is complete garbage.
 
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Cad Wedge NC said:
Meh, it will be difficult to get that storm track and have Temps above normal for the upper se and mid-arlantic as you have shown. Either it will be above normal with cutters. Or it will be below normal with Miller As. Can't have both with the Ohio valley high and dry.
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The only reason it’s above normal is because im Going really warm in dec/little warm in jan THEN Feb bn. This follows most east based Nino analogs. And you can have storms with a southern track, with no cold air, which is far more typical in a Nino…
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
The only reason it’s above normal is because im Going really warm in dec/little warm in jan THEN Feb bn. This follows most east based Nino analogs. And you can have storms with a southern track, with no cold air, which is far more typical in a Nino…
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When was the last time we've had a cold February though? I really can't recall. Maybe I have selective memory, but it seems like our winters have been narrowed down to January through mid-February, and the second half of February sprints into transitioning to spring the last several years.

I know it's the typical Nino progression but I'm really not sure I buy February being cold. My guess would be as usual, our coldest month on average is January, with February warm. Perhaps though my mind is too clouded with the last 3 years of Nina.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Meh, it will be difficult to get that storm track and have Temps above normal for the upper se and mid-arlantic as you have shown. Either it will be above normal with cutters. Or it will be below normal with Miller As. Can't have both with the Ohio valley high and dry.
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Not really. That map is taking into account what will probably be an overall quite mild December. Also with the active STJ developing, you can expect to see many days this winter that sees highs a couple degrees below average, but clouds and moisture holds lows up a good bit above normal…. 2019-2020 is a great example of that.
 
Chazwin said:
Not really. That map is taking into account what will probably be an overall quite mild December. Also with the active STJ developing, you can expect to see many days this winter that sees highs a couple degrees below average, but clouds and moisture holds lows up a good bit above normal…. 2019-2020 is a great example of that.
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This exactly
 
SnowNiner said:
When was the last time we've had a cold February though? I really can't recall. Maybe I have selective memory, but it seems like our winters have been narrowed down to January through mid-February, and the second half of February sprints into transitioning to spring the last several years.

I know it's the typical Nino progression but I'm really not sure I buy February being cold. My guess would be as usual, our coldest month on average is January, with February warm. Perhaps though my mind is too clouded with the last 3 years of Nina.
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and after this nino peaks mid winter, we look to be heading pretty much straight into a nina enso phase later spring 24
 
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