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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Sobering...

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While I think we will have some cold air, it looks to me like the storm track will be west of the NC mountains meaning ice if any frozen precip falls into early Feb. After that who knows but I think the NE and plains are going to get hammered for the next 30-45 days
 
While I think we will have some cold air, it looks to me like the storm track will be west of the NC mountains meaning ice if any frozen precip falls into early Feb. After that who knows but I think the NE and plains are going to get hammered for the next 30-45 days
That goes against all past Nino climos. I don't see the northern plains getting hammered for the next 45 days.
 
Id cash out now with jan feb 1966 repeat. GSO had over 13 inches multiple events last week jan all feb. Lowest temp was 3 on jan 30 and for Feb lowest temp was 8.
Got consider unfortunately that far back climate change …. Don’t shoot me lol thing s r little different with the climate these days
 
0Z CFS says there is no cold trough in the east at all in January and the cold dump is out west followed by what looks like a strong jet extension and a repeat of the December pattern that ushers all the cold out of North America in to the northern Atlantic.

(picks up towel)
Honestly, the strong jet ext part is a concern I've had here lately with Feb when the MJO swings back around. That's a long way off, and hopefully the Webb script will save us, but I'd like to see us cash in here in mid-late Jan when the NAO is neg
 
Honestly, the strong jet ext part is a concern I've had here lately with Feb when the MJO swings back around. That's a long way off, and hopefully the Webb script will save us, but I'd like to see us cash in here in mid-late Jan when the NAO is neg
I think these graphs are still really encouraging. It's not quite as great as 12z yesterday but still pretty darn good.

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Got consider unfortunately that far back climate change …. Don’t shoot me lol thing s r little different with the climate these days
What is the acceptable cutoff for 2024? I see people refer back to prior analogs often and wonder if there is a “stopping point” based on current knowledge?
 
I say 2010 because everything was better before then.
So are you forgetting just how bad the early 90s were? What about the period from 2005 to 2008? Heck the late 90s weren’t exactly anything to write home about either. There have been a few good winters since 2010 despite how horrible the last few years have been… 2010-2011, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2017-18. Just two years ago I had 3 straight weekends in January with at least an inch of snow.
 
So are you forgetting just how bad the early 90s were? What about the period from 2005 to 2008? Heck the late 90s weren’t exactly anything to write home about either. There have been a few good winters since 2010 despite how horrible the last few years have been… 2010-2011, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2017-18. Just two years ago I had 3 straight weekends in January with at least an inch of snow.
Yesh, but pop culture has sucked since then.
 
Hey guys. Can someone send me a link to Anthony Masiello's twitter account. The old one I have is back in August last year. I can't find the new one he has or where is most recent tweets are at.
 
Hey guys. Can someone send me a link to Anthony Masiello's twitter account. The old one I have is back in August last year. I can't find the new one he has or where is most recent tweets are at.
I believe that post he made is on a different social media
 
I'm gonna hang in there for wintry prospects until they lay me in the coffin

This is loop of Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan runs of Euro Seasonal for February. Somewhat interesting seeing the trend of lower latitude Aleutian Low for February on Euro Seasonal....i.e. could facilitate a low latitude storm track (Cali/Baja into TX). +PNA/-EPO

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Alternate single image for Feb:

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