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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

HugeSnowStick said:
That is just plain ugly, those houses, WTF>?
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I’ve been up there when I was in the army. They’re ugly as hell, but they have the best damn insulation during that long bitterly cold night that is winter up there.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The JMA Seasonal has a product to forecast daily for the next few months. Not a bad look if you ask me. There's probably little accuracy, but I'll post it here.
November:



December:



January:

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Interesting…. That does follow along fairly closely with 2009-2010 which is one of the big analogs for this year.
 
Super El Nino is still the rumor mill / hype I'm hearing.

09-10 was a perfect placed / location El Niño. Don't believe it was considered what we term a super el Niño year. I could be wrong. I do know it was positioned just right out there in the pacific to where we where not just firehosed with pacific origin air. Always the fear when you get high end el Niño .
 
NCSNOW said:
Super El Nino is still the rumor mill / hype I'm hearing.

09-10 was a perfect placed / location El Niño. Don't believe it was considered what we term a super el Niño year. I could be wrong. I do know it was positioned just right out there in the pacific to where we where not just firehosed with pacific origin air. Always the fear when you get high end el Niño .
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The reason those years were amazing was because of the NAO. We haven't had solid NAO support since then. I remember going out in summer with my jacket because of the deep trough.

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Ollie Williams said:
The CANSIP Seasonal is coming in hot! Fairly canonical El Nino pattern after New Year's.View attachment 135960
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Look at that warmer than avg air in Canada. That would imply quite a bit of blocking near the arctic and bouts of arctic air being sent down south into the CONUS in the new year. Large parts of the South are well overdue for a memorable snow event...maybe this will be the winter....can't be worse than last winter which was among the worst of the last 50 years. I'm just looking forward to a regime change that El Nino will provide after three years of La Nina.
 
Well we have shown to actually get a -NAO these past couple of winters so hopefully that trend continues. Looks like we could finally have some Pacific support with an active subtropical jet. But as always it almost 100% comes down to one thing and one thing only and that's timing.
 
Curious if Gulf and Atlantic water temps recede back to normal as we approach winter. Wonder if that could be a player in any Miller A nor’easter types we see
 
Avalanche said:
Curious if Gulf and Atlantic water temps recede back to normal as we approach winter. Wonder if that could be a player in any Miller A nor’easter types we see
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I have a feeling that these higher than average SSTs could really be a big player in what types of storms we see. Stronger warm nose in storms that would lead to mixing issues. I know this has been said for a few years now, but the southern NC Piedmont and eastern SC upstate is overdue, way overdue, for a major ice storm.
 
Chazwin said:
I have a feeling that these higher than average SSTs could really be a big player in what types of storms we see. Stronger warm nose in storms that would lead to mixing issues. I know this has been said for a few years now, but the southern NC Piedmont and eastern SC upstate is overdue, way overdue, for a major ice storm.
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The Sandhills of NC use to get nailed by ice storms. Now it’s year ‘round golf :)
 
The good news going into this winter is that it literally can’t get any worse than the last one. 0” and scorching temperatures nearly throughout seems like the worst we can possibly do, right? Right? ?
 
Avalanche said:
Curious if Gulf and Atlantic water temps recede back to normal as we approach winter. Wonder if that could be a player in any Miller A nor’easter types we see
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This is my hope too. Too high water temps spike dew points in the winter which screws everyone in a marginal temp setup.
 
Avalanche said:
Curious if Gulf and Atlantic water temps recede back to normal as we approach winter. Wonder if that could be a player in any Miller A nor’easter types we see
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It could be a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, bigger storms. On the other, even more intense WAA than normal. And we know how that usually plays out…Prepare for lots of rainstorms.
 
superjames1992 said:
The seven day isn’t looking so hot for Barrow. Or actually it is, but not in the way we’d like. Note the average high in August is 44.

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I spent 2 years up there when I was in the Army… they typically get a week like that sometime in late July or during August
 
Chazwin said:
I spent 2 years up there when I was in the Army… they typically get a week like that sometime in late July or during August
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Russia is burning too. Yakutsk was in the 80’s as well as Khatanga. Summit Camp Greenland and Mt Everest stayed cold though
 
severestorm said:
This is my hope too. Too high water temps spike dew points in the winter which screws everyone in a marginal temp setup.
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It's great for the folks who are on the right side of the transition zone though....warmer waters means deeper moisture injected into the system which means heavier precip and snowfall if cold enough.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
It's great for the folks who are on the right side of the transition zone though....warmer waters means deeper moisture injected into the system which means heavier precip and snowfall if cold enough.
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I bet that will end up in the interior parts of the SE as the recurring eastern trough keeps building in. My money is on a good thumping in MS/AL up through TN and NC mountains as the Piedmont stays rain and 43 degrees.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
It's great for the folks who are on the right side of the transition zone though....warmer waters means deeper moisture injected into the system which means heavier precip and snowfall if cold enough.
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"Cold enough" is going to be the question for this winter. El nino should give us our SE troughs / storm tracks, but the cold to our north will be the wild card. We need to hope for some favorable blocking and some nice strong high pressures to lock to our north. I do like our chances this year. So glad we're finally out of the la nina.
 
weatherfide said:
I bet that will end up in the interior parts of the SE as the recurring eastern trough keeps building in. My money is on a good thumping in MS/AL up through TN and NC mountains as the Piedmont stays rain and 43 degrees.
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That would be typical la nina type storms. Hopefully el nino changes things this year.
 
Chris Justus already sounding the winter alarm. Must be a slow weather day… Or year.
 

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Stevo24 said:
Chris Justus already sounding the winter alarm. Must be a slow weather day… Or year.
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Nothing he said in that post is wrong. He's a meteorologist, speculating and forecasting the upcoming winter just like the rest of us. Not to mention the pattern is favorable for snow along the East Coast this year.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
Probably not but it has produced some good storms/winters for WNC.
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Agreed… with a strong Niño you don’t really see the long stretches of opportunities like 2002-03 and 2009-10 had, but you do usually see things come together for a couple widespread events.
 
JB’s June winter forecast said it’s going to snow all the way down to I-10 this year. He went full weenie in the Saturday summary today with his favorite analogs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a forecast like this make an appearance.
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Ollie Williams said:
JB’s June winter forecast said it’s going to snow all the way down to I-10 this year. He went full weenie in the Saturday summary today with his favorite analogs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a forecast like this make an appearance.
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I mean he has to be right eventually
 
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