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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Tarheel1 said:
A lot of NC/SC snow events, came during strong El Niño’s
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Yeah, but I do remember one of the super el nino years where the whole country was overwhelmed with warmth. Forgot what year that was, but it wasn't great for snow (...as far as I remember).
 
severestorm said:
All those years you pointed didn't have record ocean heatwaves. This isn't a good look going into the winter

F29JEydXEAA0IDE
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If anything that just screams more ice potential than a non event happening.
 
severestorm said:
More like CAD rain events. Dew Points even this summer are very high. In the 80's some cases.
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Not really. And summer dew points are always that high in the summer across portions of the southeast. DP's in the 70's are a regular in the southeast. Those warm waters will also cool. writing off winter in august is dumb
 
iGRXY said:
Not really. And summer dew points are always that high in the summer across portions of the southeast. DP's in the 70's are a regular in the southeast. Those warm waters will also cool. writing off winter in august is dumb
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Explain how a ocean heatwave means CAD ice storm is happening
 
severestorm said:
Explain how a ocean heatwave means CAD ice storm is happening
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It literally just supports more amplified systems. That affects the mid levels of the atmosphere. CAD is surface level driven cold so your abnormally high sea temps means zero other than potential warm noses dependent on the track. Which the track matters whether the waters are warm or cold. So yes the waters can be abnormally warm and we can still get snow, but supports higher ice and mix bag potentials.
 
packfan98 said:
Does this tweet show that the 30 year averages for winter in the CONUS has been cooling over the past 4 decades?
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It's comparing 1997-1998 to the previous 30 year temperature brackets. The reason it so high in the beginning was the temperature in 1997-1998 was drastically warmer than the 1961-1990 averages. The newer 30 year averages are warmer causing it to appear it's cooling in your GIF animation.

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FallsLake said:
Yeah, it seems there were many events, spread out, during those years. Tracking storms is half the fun. Hopefully this year we have a lot of tracking opportunities.

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In order to create and maintain as long and reliable record of winter storms as possible in North and South Carolina, the following list of winter storm and seasonal snow/sleet maps for the states of...
www.webberweather.com
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2009-10 was amazing and was my first full winter tracking weather on the forums. It really spoiled me as we haven’t seen another like it with the possible exception of 2013-14, but that was a backloaded winter and wasn’t great the whole winter like 2009-10, which had winter events from December through early March. I didn’t realize how good we had it then. ?

One of the most depressing things last year was there was literally nothing to track. I remember I was trying to wishcast a Miller A rainstorm into being colder than the models were showing, but then it happened as forecasted and all I got was heavy rain with temperatures around 40. Rough.
 
packfan98 said:
Does this tweet show that the 30 year averages for winter in the CONUS has been cooling over the past 4 decades?
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No, it’s saying that 1997-1998 wasn’t nearly as warm compared to the 1991-2020 averages as it was compared to the 1961-1990 averages used at the time. So, if 1997-1998 happened today, it wouldn’t be as startling. Also, it may suggest that a similar Super El Niño today would lead to temperatures that would dwarf 1997-1998’s. But we’ll see.
 
severestorm said:
All those years you pointed didn't have record ocean heatwaves. This isn't a good look going into the winter

F29JEydXEAA0IDE
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Certainly is a concern, but I wouldn’t write winter off over it. Also, it could lead to juicer systems, too, so if we can get some systems to track well and fend off the increased WAA, it could work to our benefit. But we know how that story usually ends… ?
 
superjames1992 said:
Certainly is a concern, but I wouldn’t write winter off over it. Also, it could lead to juicer systems, too, so if we can get some systems to track well and fend off the increased WAA, it could work to our benefit. But we know how that story usually ends… ?
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Yea. Usually, especially in 2009-2010 winter, the cold air was locked before the system and it was cooler in the higher latitudes than is now. Marginal temps and a juiced up system isn't ideal IMO.
 
superjames1992 said:
2009-10 was amazing and was my first full winter tracking weather on the forums. It really spoiled me as we haven’t seen another like it with the possible exception of 2013-14, but that was a backloaded winter and wasn’t great the whole winter like 2009-10, which had winter events from December through early March. I didn’t realize how good we had it then. ?

One of the most depressing things last year was there was literally nothing to track. I remember I was trying to wishcast a Miller A rainstorm into being colder than the models were showing, but then it happened as forecasted and all I got was heavy rain with temperatures around 40. Rough.
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Even that 2009-2010 year was actually fairly mild the first 10 days of December and for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of January… I remember there being severe weather the weekend before the 1/28-1/30 winter storm. I just bring this up because I think sometimes we forget how here in the south a wall to wall cold for the entire winter is never truly realistic
 
The niño is east based. No denying that. The million dollar question is whether the tropical forcing can stay further west or even hope the niño can migrate enough west moving forward. That is what we should focus on?
 
We will get our usual cold shots. This time we just have a better chance at moisture during those cold shots. Just gotta hope one lines up. Either way this is basically same story different year give or take a few variables.
 
The last two ninos both have significant EC storms. Considering the potential for this one to be at least a moderate and depending on if the above average SSTs on the Atlantic persist into the cold seasons, I say we have an above average risk for at least a SECS.

And honestly I'm hoping for another January 2016 type storm, though with hopefully a bit more snow towards out end of the woods.
 
Chazwin said:
Even that 2009-2010 year was actually fairly mild the first 10 days of December and for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of January… I remember there being severe weather the weekend before the 1/28-1/30 winter storm. I just bring this up because I think sometimes we forget how here in the south a wall to wall cold for the entire winter is never truly realistic
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Yeah there was no winter weather to speak of after the big snow of Dec 18th 2009 outside of the mountains until the big winter storm again Jan 28th-30th. Even though that was a spectacular winter. It gets overlooked sometimes we had a big 6 week lull from winter weather and even cold temps from Dec 19th through Jan 27th 2010 even though that was a epic winter we had a 6 week break that winter and it was still one of the best winters I've ever experienced with 4 snowstorms that winter and basically nothing in January until the last few days of the month.
 
Chazwin said:
Even that 2009-2010 year was actually fairly mild the first 10 days of December and for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of January… I remember there being severe weather the weekend before the 1/28-1/30 winter storm. I just bring this up because I think sometimes we forget how here in the south a wall to wall cold for the entire winter is never truly realistic
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True, true. If I recall right, we had temperatures in the upper 50s in GSO the day before the big late January system came through. It actually briefly started off as rain here, too.

Speaking of quick changes, I remember it was sunny in the mid-50s at GSO as recently as a few hours before the February 25, 2015 snowstorm that dropped 6.4”. It’s not unusual to get warm weather ahead of our major storms (which kind of sucks as it makes soil temps more of an issue, but alas).
 
J1C1111 said:
Yeah there was no winter weather to speak of after the big snow of Dec 18th 2009 outside of the mountains until the big winter storm again Jan 28th-30th. Even though that was a spectacular winter. It gets overlooked sometimes we had a big 6 week lull from winter weather and even cold temps from Dec 19th through Jan 27th 2010 even though that was a epic winter we had a 6 week break that winter and it was still one of the best winters I've ever experienced with 4 snowstorms that winter and basically nothing in January until the last few days of the month.
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True, that’s the reality of living in a place that averages single digit yearly snowfall. There’s no such thing as a wall-to-wall winter, but 2009-10 is probably as close as we’ve gotten since the 1980s.
 
J1C1111 said:
Yeah there was no winter weather to speak of after the big snow of Dec 18th 2009 outside of the mountains until the big winter storm again Jan 28th-30th. Even though that was a spectacular winter. It gets overlooked sometimes we had a big 6 week lull from winter weather and even cold temps from Dec 19th through Jan 27th 2010 even though that was a epic winter we had a 6 week break that winter and it was still one of the best winters I've ever experienced with 4 snowstorms that winter and basically nothing in January until the last few days of the month.
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Yeah it’s just the perception. 2009-10 was a great winter, but it’s easy to forget that the time of peak climo was absolutely horrible during it. Another example of that is 1987-88. Pretty much the entire south considers that a great winter, but in reality outside of the big storm from 1/6-1/8 and the period of cold for a week after, that winter was dreadful…. KCLT actually had temperatures in the 80s by the end of January that year.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah it’s just the perception. 2009-10 was a great winter, but it’s easy to forget that the time of peak climo was absolutely horrible during it. Another example of that is 1987-88. Pretty much the entire south considers that a great winter, but in reality outside of the big storm from 1/6-1/8 and the period of cold for a week after, that winter was dreadful…. KCLT actually had temperatures in the 80s by the end of January that year.
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1999-2000 was also terrible with the exception of the last two weeks of January, as well. But, this being the South, it really only takes one big system to make a winter memorable. I think our expectations are often too high.
 
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