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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

It would be fun if you could pick the version of the weather model when you go to view its output. Like, instead of viewing the January 1, 2024, 12z run of the Euro with the current version of the model, have the ability to run it against the 2010 version of the Euro model, the real Dr. No.
 
griteater said:
It would be fun if you could pick the version of the weather model when you go to view its output. Like, instead of viewing the January 1, 2024, 12z run of the Euro with the current version of the model, have the ability to run it against the 2010 version of the Euro model, the real Dr. No.
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Ha! Or January 2000, so that there’s a higher chance of a bust when models are dwindling off on snow chances.
 
Snowlover87 said:
i'm just worried GA and SC could have issues getting in on the cold shots too.
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As is said every year , adnauseum, don’t need arctic air to get snow, gotta be just cold enough!
 
Chazwin said:
The one thing about that map that I think is definitely going to happen is the Nor’easters. Combination of the active STJ due to El Niño and the warm SSTs in the Gulf and the Atlantic is going to be plenty of fuel for the fire.
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He had nor Easters all the way down to Savannah ha
 
I expect that even that far south will have to deal with some coastal storms this winter. Lots of similarities to the El Niño of 1992-93.
 
Snowlover87 said:
I'm a little confused at the Severe Weather from Oklahoma to Tennessee and cold weather near the Gulf. Wouldn't you need a warm winter to get a lot of severe weather ?
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Anytime any weenie makes a winter forecast, it looks like the one above. Although, I am proud of him for not adding in a "Winter Battle Zome"
 
Personally, I like Mitch West ( somewhat local). He doesn’t claim to be anything but a weather lover and ponder on weather with his southerin and notherin talk. Bothe seem unbiased to hype!
 
What do you guys honestly see happening this winter? Seems like almost everyone is talking about definitely having amped up storms with the jet stream track. All we need is the cold to line up at the right time. I’d give us about a 30% of a board wide hit this year instead of the usual 5%.
 
Stevo24 said:
What do you guys honestly see happening this winter? Seems like almost everyone is talking about definitely having amped up storms with the jet stream track. All we need is the cold to line up at the right time. I’d give us about a 30% of a board wide hit this year instead of the usual 5%.
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I think it’s hard to say, hottest temps in the Atlantic we’ve seen and there doesn’t seem to be tropical systems to cool them at the moment. The storm track should be good but will we get temps cold enough to support wintry precipitation?
 
Stevo24 said:
What do you guys honestly see happening this winter? Seems like almost everyone is talking about definitely having amped up storms with the jet stream track. All we need is the cold to line up at the right time. I’d give us about a 30% of a board wide hit this year instead of the usual 5%.
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Mild, wet, 2 in 10 shot of a winter storm or 2.
 
It's funny how almost every single Youtuber that talks about winter in the summer and puts out videos and "analysis" is a guy under the age of 27, with disheveled hair and mustard on his shirt and is obviously running his lab out of his mother's basement.
 
Stevo24 said:
What do you guys honestly see happening this winter? Seems like almost everyone is talking about definitely having amped up storms with the jet stream track. All we need is the cold to line up at the right time. I’d give us about a 30% of a board wide hit this year instead of the usual 5%.
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Lots on rain. Lots of cold and cool rains to be exact. Likely a couple of winter storms. Highly likely for mixbag type systems with LP track being crucial from who gets snow to ice to rain (likely a Jan 2022 type storm). The high SSTs support big systems but a lot of WAA. Active southern jet and hopefully another round of -NAO will help set up some CAD potential. Either way I expect numerous days of 35-40 degree rains where I live. Hope to score 2-4 opportunities at some type of winter weather with at least one being a 6+ type of storm.
 
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