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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

accu35 said:
I wouldn’t throw out AL/MS just yet. For you to say we will see all rain this winter is crazy. So far all the forecast this winter says I’m gonna have some fun.
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It only takes one ULL to cause excitement anywhere. We don't want a -pdo all winter because that supports troughing out west UNLESS you get strong enough blocking to overcome that imo
 
JHS said:
This will be a repeat of last year with 95% of us outside of the mountains not even getting a trace of snow or sleet.
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Making statements like these are pointless and meaningless without any scientific or data analysis to back up the claim. Not only that, but it also deters others from making coherent posts.
 
wxdaniel said:
Making statements like these are pointless and meaningless without any scientific or data analysis to back up the claim. Not only that, but it also deters others from making coherent posts.
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Yeah , true…. But let’s face it…. Winters are t like used be …. Whether like ir or not…. Warmer climate is creeping in on us. Deal with jt
 
tennessee storm said:
Yeah , true…. But let’s face it…. Winters are t like used be …. Whether like ir or not…. Warmer climate is creeping in on us. Deal with jt
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You do realize it can snow or get a winter storm in a warmer climate right? If anything a warming climate just drives extreme variation in weather between temperatures, storms, etc. where it could be record breaking warmth in the northwest, it could be record breaking cold, rain, and snow here during an El Niño. How about just wait for winter to actually get here before dooming and glooming in august.
 
iGRXY said:
You do realize it can snow or get a winter storm in a warmer climate right? If anything a warming climate just drives extreme variation in weather between temperatures, storms, etc. where it could be record breaking warmth in the northwest, it could be record breaking cold, rain, and snow here during an El Niño. How about just wait for winter to actually get here before dooming and glooming in august.
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I can't imagine it not snowing at all again for the 2nd year in a row. But there is no doubt warmer winters are slashing our snowfall amounts. That's not up for debate. The cause of the warming is the only part debatable.

I've said on here the 20s are going to be the least snowiest decade on record for GSP. So far the 90s own that title. But we have dug quite a hole already to dig out of. The 90s had 14.9 inches up until this point and the 20s have 9.2 inches. GSP had 2.8 inches 93-94 for 17.7 total come April 1994. We need a huge winter of 8.5 inches this winter just to tie that decade. Most know how unlikely that is to happen. This isn't Raleigh, we have no chance at those 20 inch winters to balance out. We simply do not get big coastal back this way. Even though the 30 year averages aren't too different between the 2 cities we used to do it with smaller more frequent events. Those events are becoming less and less frequent.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I can't imagine it not snowing at all again for the 2nd year in a row. But there is no doubt warmer winters are slashing our snowfall amounts. That's not up for debate. The cause of the warming is the only part debatable.

I've said on here the 20s are going to be the least snowiest decade on record for GSP. So far the 90s own that title. But we have dug quite a hole already to dig out of. The 90s had 14.9 inches up until this point and the 20s have 9.2 inches. GSP had 2.8 inches 93-94 for 17.7 total come April 1994. We need a huge winter of 8.5 inches this winter just to tie that decade. Most know how unlikely that is to happen. This isn't Raleigh, we have no chance at those 20 inch winters to balance out. We simply do not get big coastal back this way. Even though the 30 year averages aren't too different between the 2 cities we used to do it with smaller more frequent events. Those events are becoming less and less frequent.
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Most of that came in 1993 out of the superstorm.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I can't imagine it not snowing at all again for the 2nd year in a row. But there is no doubt warmer winters are slashing our snowfall amounts. That's not up for debate. The cause of the warming is the only part debatable.

I've said on here the 20s are going to be the least snowiest decade on record for GSP. So far the 90s own that title. But we have dug quite a hole already to dig out of. The 90s had 14.9 inches up until this point and the 20s have 9.2 inches. GSP had 2.8 inches 93-94 for 17.7 total come April 1994. We need a huge winter of 8.5 inches this winter just to tie that decade. Most know how unlikely that is to happen. This isn't Raleigh, we have no chance at those 20 inch winters to balance out. We simply do not get big coastal back this way. Even though the 30 year averages aren't too different between the 2 cities we used to do it with smaller more frequent events. Those events are becoming less and less frequent.
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I have some memorable snow storms from the late 90’s. 96 or 97 had a good storm. I’m not saying that you are wrong at all but like you mentioned, you can still over produce in non statistical years!
 
Chazwin said:
I think for the western 2/3rds of NC/SC, if you take out the ‘93 Superstorm and the January 1996 storm, it would probably take out 50-75% of the total snowfall in the 90s… depending on location
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Yeah without those 2 the 90's have much less snowfall for most of us.
 
jeremyt said:
I have some memorable snow storms from the late 90’s. 96 or 97 had a good storm. I’m not saying that you are wrong at all but like you mentioned, you can still over produce in non statistical years!
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It was probably 95-96 you remember. Here is the monthly totals going back to the 1950s.
Screenshot_20230831_140116_Gallery.jpg
 
JHS said:
Yeah without those 2 the 90's have much less snowfall for most of us.
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That is true. Those saved the 90s from being a complete disaster. Not sure storms like that can save the 20s. Our best storms come with marginal setups. That's always been true and is true even for the NE. It seems now the marginal setups have such a strong warm nose likely from high sea surface temps that we waste half the qpf on sleet or zr. Then when we get the strong push of Arctic air where cold seems like it wouldn't be a problem it always supresses the storm track.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That is true. Those saved the 90s from being a complete disaster. Not sure storms like that can save the 20s. Our best storms come with marginal setups. That's always been true and is true even for the NE. It seems now the marginal setups have such a strong warm nose likely from high sea surface temps that we waste half the qpf on sleet or zr. Then when we get the strong push of Arctic air where cold seems like it wouldn't be a problem it always supresses the storm track.
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One thing that I do think is going in our favor in the Carolinas for this winter is that we seem to have cycled back into a period where long stretches of high latitude blocking set up during the winter. That does correlate with higher winter weather opportunities in the southeast. Also looking past El Niños, even moderate to strong ones that have longer stretches of mild weather, they do still typically produce 1-2 significant events outside the mountain in the Carolina, and those storms tend to set up with good blocking…the 1997-98 Super Niño is a good example.
 
Take out the Carolina Crusher and RAH’s snow total for the 2000-2009 period would have been like 5.7” total
 
Tarheel1 said:
Take out the Carolina Crusher and RAH’s snow total for the 2000-2009 period would have been like 5.7” total
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I would take that period again. We had some pretty good storms during that range.

This is just one of many events:
1693523557480.png

2000s Winter Storms (NC)

*Please note that clicking on any of the underlined hyperlinks to individual storms, seasons, and decades alike (except for the first decade (1890s)) will all direct you to a different snow and...
www.webberweather.com
 
Tarheel1 said:
Take out the Carolina Crusher and RAH’s snow total for the 2000-2009 period would have been like 5.7” total
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The crusher was crazy. One foot where I am and very little above I-85 in SC. We got a foot here in late Feb 2004 too. Next best one was March 2009, although we missed the best of it.
 
Chazwin said:
One thing that I do think is going in our favor in the Carolinas for this winter is that we seem to have cycled back into a period where long stretches of high latitude blocking set up during the winter. That does correlate with higher winter weather opportunities in the southeast. Also looking past El Niños, even moderate to strong ones that have longer stretches of mild weather, they do still typically produce 1-2 significant events outside the mountain in the Carolina, and those storms tend to set up with good blocking…the 1997-98 Super Niño is a good example.
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Yep I think we'll be satisfied with our snowfall this year. I just like to keep my expectations in check. I don't think any city from ATL to RDU breaks double digits for the season though. RDU would have the best chance imo being in a better spot for deepening coastal storms.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yep I think we'll be satisfied with our snowfall this year. I just like to keep my expectations in check. I don't think any city from ATL to RDU breaks double digits for the season though. RDU would have the best chance imo being in a better spot for deepening coastal storms.
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I never expect to see a double digit season east of the mountains and south of I-40. Obviously a number of us are certainly due.
 
JHS said:
The crusher was crazy. One foot where I am and very little above I-85 in SC. We got a foot here in late Feb 2004 too. Next best one was March 2009, although we missed the best of it.
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Yeah, I had 8” in March 2009, but a dusting from the crusher! ?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Take out the Carolina Crusher and RAH’s snow total for the 2000-2009 period would have been like 5.7” total
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Raleigh got more than that in the January 2002, February 2004, and January 2009 storms, just off the top of my head.
 
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