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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

America Climate Channel massive winter:

 
The real Almanac has spoken! Not sure if I’m area 10 or 12, but I’ll take either or both ! BBEB2DDE-F60C-440C-9A75-3A7356DB192F.png0D7CFDA0-68A4-403E-BCE4-169453D79112.png
 
east based Nino with a -Pacific meridional mode still hanging on strongly. Gonna lean with a warm December and overall winter, imo scoring time would be in mid January into most of Feb as typically El Niño influences tropical forcing to become more favorable around that time, typically causing the notorious strong pacific jet seen in EB ninos to back off somewhat. Need that pac trough to back off enough to encourage higher heights around the Rockies/west coast. That’s the battle I think we fight often this winter imo
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
east based Nino with a -Pacific meridional mode still hanging on strongly. Gonna lean with a warm December and overall winter, imo scoring time would be in mid January into most of Feb as typically El Niño influences tropical forcing to become more favorable around that time, typically causing the notorious strong pacific jet seen in EB ninos to back off somewhat. Need that pac trough to back off enough to encourage higher heights around the Rockies/west coast. That’s the battle I think we fight often this winter imo
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Hello Fro. Do you feel a warm winter even despite tropical forcing being further west so far than most intense Niños at this point, which is typically further east?
 
Itryatgolf said:
Hello Fro. Do you feel a warm winter even despite tropical forcing being further west so far than most intense Niños at this point, which is typically further east?
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East based ninos normally aren’t cold for the SE during winter. Can be cool though, due to a Persistent southern jet
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
So most from GSP to RDU can expect about 6-7 inches of snow then total. Seems reasonable. But -3 for the whole cold season? Not a chance.
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Definitely agree. I think there’s going to be cold periods with snow opportunities, but as Fro pointed out yesterday, an east based Nino should be average to slightly above.
 
Saw the Euro seasonal…
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks like a classic split flow pattern. Probably the best way to get snow here. Not sure why there's hand-wringing at this.
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Agreed. Trough over the east and ridge in the west is the best we can hope for this far out, especially with an El Nino. Cross your fingers and hope for the best. Sure it could be cold shots and then it warms up just enough for a cold rain, but we should have some legitimate chances to score.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If I was just to take a random guess per what I see, this would be what I got. View attachment 136858
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That seem reasonable. I would maybe throw in a stripe of avg-slightly above in the bottom part of the yellow especially east of the mountains. I think we’re gonna see a very active STJ that will bring a lot of cloud cover. Also as I mentioned the other week, it appear that we’ve cycled back into a period where high latitude blocking is setting up for long stretches in the winter… that will likely set up a lot of CAD.
 
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