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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Dropping this in here. Photo of my late mother and my oldest brother in Charlotte. He was born in 1965, so it's sometime in the late 60's. Classic looking Carolina Piedmont storm with some light accumulating snow & sleet, followed by freezing rain (can see the ice cycles hanging off the car on the right)

kAzaKNf.jpg
 
From Ben Noll's Twitter:
"The ECMWF+UKMET superblend* for December 2023-February 2024 is very active along the U.S. East Coast Consistent with an El Niño winter, above normal precipitation () is shown across the Deep South, Southeast, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast as well as California. The risk for East Coast storms looks higher than normal, but cold air may be at a premium! The El Niño-fuelled jet stream is predicted to extend all the way across the Atlantic into Europe, driving frequent storm systems from the southwest. In Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, parts of South America, and the off-equatorial Pacific, El Niño-influenced droughts are possible. *Superblend = combination of the ECMWF and UKMET seasonal forecasting systems, consisting of about 110 ensemble members. They comprise two of the best seasonal modelling systems."
 
Think you have to put the SE as normal right now and watch the next 60-75 days play out. Too much uncertainty on timing of going into a colder pattern and how warm December could be to confidently put the season BN. If you add March though....
 
RockHillSCWx said:
From Ben Noll's Twitter:
"The ECMWF+UKMET superblend* for December 2023-February 2024 is very active along the U.S. East Coast Consistent with an El Niño winter, above normal precipitation () is shown across the Deep South, Southeast, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast as well as California. The risk for East Coast storms looks higher than normal, but cold air may be at a premium! The El Niño-fuelled jet stream is predicted to extend all the way across the Atlantic into Europe, driving frequent storm systems from the southwest. In Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, parts of South America, and the off-equatorial Pacific, El Niño-influenced droughts are possible. *Superblend = combination of the ECMWF and UKMET seasonal forecasting systems, consisting of about 110 ensemble members. They comprise two of the best seasonal modelling systems."
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I'm wondering if the seasonals are basing the winter off the classic elniño pattern, which is typically warm December and gets colder after
 
Rain Cold said:
Weather At A Glance with a glancing winter for the SE:

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Third Preliminary winter forecast? Does he work for Weatherbell analytics!? ??
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
dem niño’s just don’t niño no more
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I've said it before, ENSO doesn't matter. There is no pattern in the modern climate period that delivers a cold and snowy winter for the SE anymore.

Personally, I feel like an El Nino will give us the best chance, particularly if there is blocking. But unfortunately, there always seems to be some bad configuration of El Nino that takes hold: Super Nino, strong east-based, fades too early, strengthens too early, stays strong too long, inverse modoki, weak west-based northsouthern, or fading moderate el nina o.

You're going to hear nothing here but strong southern jet originating all the way from Saturn that does nothing but flood the US with mild interstellar Pacific air.
 
I did a search and found some interesting stats that Larry found on major SN/IP events in ATL. We have a much higher chance with a strong nino. However temps may not be as cold as a weak nino, timing would be easier for storms with an active southern jet and a -NAO. See below for ENSO events and frequency of major storms.

Since winter of 1876-7. ATL major SN/IP: 39 storms.

- 17 El Nino: 7 strong, 4 mod, 6 weak
- 12 Neutral (5 warm, 7 cold)
- 10 La Nina: 2 strong, 4 mod, 4 weak
 
GaStorm said:
I did a search and found some interesting stats that Larry found on major SN/IP events in ATL. We have a much higher chance with a strong nino. However temps may not be as cold as a weak nino, timing would be easier for storms with an active southern jet and a -NAO. See below for ENSO events and frequency of major storms.

Since winter of 1876-7. ATL major SN/IP: 39 storms.

- 17 El Nino: 7 strong, 4 mod, 6 weak
- 12 Neutral (5 warm, 7 cold)
- 10 La Nina: 2 strong, 4 mod, 4 weak
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RIP Larry.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've said it before, ENSO doesn't matter. There is no pattern in the modern climate period that delivers a cold and snowy winter for the SE anymore.

Personally, I feel like an El Nino will give us the best chance, particularly if there is blocking. But unfortunately, there always seems to be some bad configuration of El Nino that takes hold: Super Nino, strong east-based, fades too early, strengthens too early, stays strong too long, inverse modoki, weak west-based northsouthern, or fading moderate el nina o.

You're going to hear nothing here but strong southern jet originating all the way from Saturn that does nothing but flood the US with mild interstellar Pacific air.
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Post of the month! ? accurate
 
Rain Cold said:
I've said it before, ENSO doesn't matter. There is no pattern in the modern climate period that delivers a cold and snowy winter for the SE anymore.

Personally, I feel like an El Nino will give us the best chance, particularly if there is blocking. But unfortunately, there always seems to be some bad configuration of El Nino that takes hold: Super Nino, strong east-based, fades too early, strengthens too early, stays strong too long, inverse modoki, weak west-based northsouthern, or fading moderate el nina o.

You're going to hear nothing here but strong southern jet originating all the way from Saturn that does nothing but flood the US with mild interstellar Pacific air.
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I agree sir! It'll be wet this winter for sure which gives better than average chances at snow. But I will remind folks, I think it was January of this year, GSP had the wettest Jan on record and not a single snowflake to show for it. While our chances are higher for a storm with above average precip there are no guarantees anymore. I know it was a Nina and not Nino. But cutoff the cold supply with a raging Pac jet and all that moisture won't matter.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I agree sir! It'll be wet this winter for sure which gives better than average chances at snow. But I will remind folks, I think it was January of this year, GSP had the wettest Jan on record and not a single snowflake to show for it. While our chances are higher for a storm with above average precip there are no guarantees anymore. I know it was a Nina and not Nino. But cutoff the cold supply with a raging Pac jet and all that moisture won't matter.
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Im 100% in your camp you get a stoing Nino, espeacilly east based, get ready to play Golf all winter. Just be prepared for carts on path if you catch a dry day and still have rain gear on hand.
 
NCSNOW said:
Im 100% in your camp you get a stoing Nino, espeacilly east based, get ready to play Golf all winter. Just be prepared for carts on path if you catch a dry day and still have rain gear on hand.
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You’re right. There will definitely be some mild stretches, 1997-98 and 2015-16 were both strong east based El Niños and that still managed to produce a couple decent events for a lot of the southeast including the Carolinas. Now I’m not saying this is going to be a blockbuster winter in terms of cold and snow… I still think we end up above average temp wise for the winter. I think more active STJ that comes with an El Niño gives us a better chance of what periods of cold we do get to meet up with moisture. Another thing to watch is how much high latitude blocking sets up…it appears that we have cycled back into a period where strong blocking is setting up for long stretches during the winter again. Of course there will be times that all it will be blocking is Pacific air
 
I just got a hard copy ot The Old Farmers Almanac, the OG one, and much to my suprise, all 4 months of my winter Nov,Dec, Jan, Feb, are all below normal for me! I thought it was all out above normal for Nino up here!?
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks like a classic split flow pattern. Probably the best way to get snow here. Not sure why there's hand-wringing at this.
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I'd take a split flow over most everything except maybe a gom low coming up into ice cold air in situ...oh, wait, that's what you can get in a split flow with timing...so, yeah, split flow :)
 
Rain Cold said:
I've said it before, ENSO doesn't matter. There is no pattern in the modern climate period that delivers a cold and snowy winter for the SE anymore.

Personally, I feel like an El Nino will give us the best chance, particularly if there is blocking. But unfortunately, there always seems to be some bad configuration of El Nino that takes hold: Super Nino, strong east-based, fades too early, strengthens too early, stays strong too long, inverse modoki, weak west-based northsouthern, or fading moderate el nina o.

You're going to hear nothing here but strong southern jet originating all the way from Saturn that does nothing but flood the US with mild interstellar Pacific air.
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Don't forget flatulent penguins, and I think the super warm seas will throw monkey shines into a lot of forecasts.
 
Stevo24 said:
I would like announce that this year I will no longer be getting angry when I see the rain/snow line over my town. I will not wish cast it into existence. I have accepted my fate.
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C'mon now, don't lie to yourself. You know you'll be crushed just like the rest of us upstaters. ?
 
Stevo24 said:
I would like announce that this year I will no longer be getting angry when I see the rain/snow line over my town. I will not wish cast it into existence. I have accepted my fate.
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I’m gonna take the under on this one!
Currently 49 degrees
 
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