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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Generally from what I've seen a relatively AN December with N/BN January-March for this nino. We'll see.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Hopefully lots of things to report in Blacksburg this winter?
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December into early jan imo is gonna be a slow start. Maybe an opportunity or 2, but will likely be dominated by a strong pacific jet, the -PMM is warming as well. This encourages an even stronger pacific jet. It’s worth noting that in Nino years, the chances of -NAO increases especially the later you get, the GOAK trough also has a tendency to disrupt the SPV. and the chances of a better pattern as wavelengths start to shorten, the main driver this winter (will not always be there but will likely be a notable feature) will probably the a strong pacific/GOAK trough/cutoff, as we head later into winter, and as wavelengths shorten, it’s easier for the jet to retract a little, and the pacific trough to snap back and encourage western ridging, west pacific forcing becomes more favorable especially in mid-late jan, Vs nov-dec. It’s worth noting that KU events for the mid Atlantic are more common in ninos than Nina's, for example jan 2016 is the last one (strong El Niño). Basically slow start, better finish. This is my first winter forecast where I have been somewhat bullish
For ex we’re already seeing the effects of the El Niño, note the pacific trough in place resulting in a warm conus on the 10 day ens mean. Probably gonna see a lot of this over the next couple of months, although there some hints by the second week of October we may have a jet retraction phase25AFE213-F74E-458B-A637-01192490ECF6.png8FCECB41-042B-4A3D-B016-90CF5DF2228B.png
 
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I’m gonna ride this forecast till spring! 48” or bust! 10B5B19B-D444-463A-9D43-45BB17110A7C.png
 
LickWx said:
That forecast looks too optimistic lol, I’d say it’s a forecast for October 20th rather than October 9
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I agree. I don’t really see any chilly snaps that would speed up the color. Still seeing mostly night time lows upper 50s to lower 60s.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree. I don’t really see any chilly snaps that would speed up the color. Still seeing mostly night time lows upper 50s to lower 60s.
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Yeah, I think we are going to see the day highs cool down (Fall like) but the overnights are not going to be as chilly as usual
 
CaryWx said:
Yeah, I think we are going to see the day highs cool down (Fall like) but the overnights are not going to be as chilly as usual
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Yes and if you look back, that was really what happened in the last El Niño in 2019. Now keep in mind that with it being a strong Niño, we will absolutely probably have stretches of warm days deep into… keep in mind that year had what was probably the absolute muggiest Christmas Eve many of us in the Carolinas have ever experienced.
 
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This will be the season of the Noreasters. Which means a lot of big dogs, mixed precip Galore for MBY, And even on the high volume cold rain events, a lot of backend wrap around snow for the northern mtns.
 
As for the “Battle Zone” on maps, a better name may be the “Pain Zone.”

Wishing all of us get at least 1 Big Dog this upcoming season!
 
BullCityWx said:
Since we don’t have a met program at Duke, I was curious about your program structure. That abroad thing they do in Scotland is pretty dang neat.
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They do all kinds of trips, including a plains chase trip every spring after the semester ends. They also do a summer Rocky Mountain hiking trip.
 
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jeremyt said:
How will high wind in a winter storm get rid of spiders? Looking to learn!
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I had a massive amount of Joro spiders in summer 22, they were all over house and shrubs. After the prolonged deep freeze last winter, the amount of Joros is at least half of last year. They'll likely bounce back to usual levels next year if we don't get another long deep freeze.
 
tractor girl said:
I had a massive amount of Joro spiders in summer 22, they were all over house and shrubs. After the prolonged deep freeze last winter, the amount of Joros is at least half of last year. They'll likely bounce back to usual levels next year if we don't get another long deep freeze.
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Well how will a blizzard help? Snow with 35mph winds?
 
jeremyt said:
How will high wind in a winter storm get rid of spiders? Looking to learn!
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I dunno. Just desperate and they are making my quality of life dismal. Infestation and invasion. I don't care what anybody says. Not to mention nobody really knows the outcome of this plague. It's not normal. Maybe the winds will blow them back to China Japan etc. Maybe a big fat snow on the ground for a week atop a couple of .25 inches of ice storms will hinder. I doubt it though. I saw one in my barn right after the 6 degree temp last year. These things are super spiders. I want my normal 2 or 3 writing spiders back Lord.

And I must add that I guess for some people they are not really a nuisance if they don't go outside and work, or in the woods etc. I literally have to kill them everyday just to get in my barn, chicken runs, on my golf cart, in my truck, on the tractor or anywhere I'm going because I'm outside all the time. My husband and other UPS people are getting tired of them. Nobody wants spiders in their face nonstop. Bring back the regular spiders. I love them now. LOL!!
 
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Wildboutsnow said:
I dunno. Just desperate and they are making my quality of life dismal. Infestation and invasion. I don't care what anybody says. Not to mention nobody really knows the outcome of this plague. It's not normal. Maybe the winds will blow them back to China Japan etc. Maybe a big fat snow on the ground for a week atop a couple of .25 inches of ice storms will hinder. I doubt it though. I saw one in my barn right after the 6 degree temp last year. These things are super spiders. I want my normal 2 or 3 writing spiders back Lord.

And I must add that I guess for some people they are not really a nuisance if they don't go outside and work, or in the woods etc. I literally have to kill them everyday just to get in my barn, chicken runs, on my golf cart, in my truck, on the tractor or anywhere I'm going because I'm outside all the time. My husband and other UPS people are getting tired of them. Nobody wants spiders in their face nonstop. Bring back the regular spiders. I love them now. LOL!!
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I haven’t seen any Joro spiders, but we have orb weavers which pretty much do what you are describing. Beautiful spiders, really spiky butts which is how you often realize you have driven though a web, or two or ten.

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Wildboutsnow said:
We need a blizzard and a couple of ice storms to hopefully get rid of all these stupid spiders. Giving me ulcers! Dear Jesus!!
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Plus one. I can't go out anymore without all the Bilbo spiders trying to catch me. Stinging webs from everything at head height so I get blinded by the webbing, and Shelob can sneak up on me. It's got to stop. I used to think the web making was predictive since when the spiders started taking steroids it got really cold that winter, but, nooooo. They go beserk ahead of dumpster winters too. First it was tundra swarms of mosquitoes doing the backstoke thru the poison fog I enveloped them in, and now it's spider super high ways every late summer/early fall. I guess a plague of bats is next, a yellow jacket scourge... or hunter killers of some sort, brought to earth on rocks from space. Nature will create balance, or try to. There's just too many hepped up manic spiders.. too many. Oh, the humanity!!
 
tractor girl said:
As long as there is prolonged subfreezing temps (including day highs). A week long frigid cold spell will hurt them (at least those who layed eggs away from warm houses)
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I’ve only found one this year so far. My parents down in acworth have tons of them. I do have plenty of orb weavers and writing spiders.
 
Arcc said:
I haven’t seen any Joro spiders, but we have orb weavers which pretty much do what you are describing. Beautiful spiders, really spiky butts which is how you often realize you have driven though a web, or two or ten.

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dsaur said:
Plus one. I can't go out anymore without all the Bilbo spiders trying to catch me. Stinging webs from everything at head height so I get blinded by the webbing, and Shelob can sneak up on me. It's got to stop. I used to think the web making was predictive since when the spiders started taking steroids it got really cold that winter, but, nooooo. They go beserk ahead of dumpster winters too. First it was tundra swarms of mosquitoes doing the backstoke thru the poison fog I enveloped them in, and now it's spider super high ways every late summer/early fall. I guess a plague of bats is next, a yellow jacket scourge... or hunter killers of some sort, brought to earth on rocks from space. Nature will create balance, or try to. There's just too many hepped up manic spiders.. too many. Oh, the humanity!
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EmersonGA said:
I’ve only found one this year so far. My parents down in acworth have tons of them. I do have plenty of orb weavers and writing spiders.
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Did you have a ton of them last year or year before?
 
Wildboutsnow said:
Did you have a ton of them last year or year before?
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I'd say more than 5 and less than 15 years back, the spiders started doing steroids and having web building contests. They'd run lines from the tallest trees down to a few feet off the ground. Trying to catch chipmunks, I'm pretty sure, and owls and hawks when they swope thru the trees. I've been on this land for 23 years, and the spider games are a new development. Started when winter became extinct, except the first few years when it got down below 10, or so. I think Ga is now a year around tropical paradise to mossies and wasps and bugs of all persuasions. Last winter it never got below 23 here, and I'm pretty sure spider bikinis were the arachnid rage at the bug mall all winter.
 
I have read what I can I find to read about the Joros. I don't think anybody really knows a whole lot about them and certainly not the outcome of what they will do in the future. I have been around them, watching and killing etc and they are out of control. They can survive the cold because of their heartrates and stuff. We need prolonged winter precip.

I was reading what some say will kill them. Pesticides that is. The hell with sticks and moving them. They say liquid 7 is 80 percent. Wasp spray 100 percent of course but it would cost a fortune not to mention probably not a good idea spraying that all over the place. The tough thing about spiders and regular home pesticide is spiders just walk right over it without it effecting them. Joros float too so even harder.
So this is what I've learned and works amazingly. The concentrate with Bifenthrin 7.9 percent is awesome for indoor and outdoor. I have never had a pest control company and I do it myself for my home. Works wonderful for everything. The Compare-N-Save on Amazon is cheap and works great. 16 oz makes up to 88 gallons. 21 bucks or so. I sprayed all under the eaves, where I had tons of Joros. Cheap squirt bottle and doused the house. Reaches farther than pump up sprayer. The cheap ones like at Walmart with either white, green or blue tops. Thos 5.00 expensive ones don't even squirt as far for as long. No staining or anything on white siding. That was over a month ago and NO SPIDERS accept lately I have seen like 3 dead ones hanging. It's time to do it again. It's almost like it repels. I have been shocked about this. And so relieved!!

I go through liquid 7 like crazy. I don't spray the Bifenthrin all over the barn and trees because of the chickens. The 7 works great and kills them dead. Actually quicker than the Bifenthrin. Little spiders need a couple of squirts but the huge ones 4 or 5. May be up to us to get these things under control so gird yourselves with squirt bottles and look to make sure Joros are the only targets. It's sort of therapeutic. LOL. JORO POSSE.

Oh and I took a ride around on the country roads in my area today. In two spots there were what they call super webs and there were 100's and 100's. I'm talking in small areas of a just feet between trees. Absolutely what nightmares are made of. NOT NORMAL. BRING ON THE PROLONGED FREEZE PLEASE! I hope living south of 85 is not going to make me have a nervous breakdown. I need snow and ice now for a real purpose. lol.
 
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dsaur said:
I'd say more than 5 and less than 15 years back, the spiders started doing steroids and having web building contests. They'd run lines from the tallest trees down to a few feet off the ground. Trying to catch chipmunks, I'm pretty sure, and owls and hawks when they swope thru the trees. I've been on this land for 23 years, and the spider games are a new development. Started when winter became extinct, except the first few years when it got down below 10, or so. I think Ga is now a year around tropical paradise to mossies and wasps and bugs of all persuasions. Last winter it never got below 23 here, and I'm pretty sure spider bikinis were the arachnid rage at the bug mall all winter.
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Ha Ha!!!
Gosh. I can't believe you have had so little. I guess I'm in hell. Looking on the map of the spread in northern and northeast GA, they either not farther south yet or it gets less of what environment they thrive. I dunno. I literally see and kill them everyday. Yesterday morning I had to kill about 3 just to walk in the barn and 12 or more to continue through to do all my work. That's not including others around the rest of the day. IT'S OUTRAGEOUS. I may try to go back and take a pic of the super webs I saw today and post. I'm scared to even do that but it's unreal.
I just had a thought. Maybe the drought will kill them. Hmmmmmm.
 
From CNN. Nothing new information wise, but they do show a picture of Raleigh during an ice event in Jan 2016:

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Here's a write up on the storm they referenced (pic of Raleigh):

Rapid Reaction: Winter’s First Major Storm Brings Snow, Sleet, Ice, and Rain - North Carolina State Climate Office

A two-day wintry event last Friday and Saturday was a classic Carolina storm, with a mixed bag of precipitation across the state ranging from heavy snow in the Mountains to sleet and freezing rain in the Piedmont to rain along the coast. The Storm's Setup The event took shape earlier in the week...
climate.ncsu.edu climate.ncsu.edu
 
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Wildboutsnow said:
I have read what I can I find to read about the Joros. I don't think anybody really knows a whole lot about them and certainly not the outcome of what they will do in the future. I have been around them, watching and killing etc and they are out of control. They can survive the cold because of their heartrates and stuff. We need prolonged winter precip.

I was reading what some say will kill them. Pesticides that is. The hell with sticks and moving them. They say liquid 7 is 80 percent. Wasp spray 100 percent....
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A few tablespoons of original Dawn with water in a spray bottle is 100% effective, and safe for plants and animals (unless you are a Joro and have it sprayed on you, then you asphyxiate and die).
 
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