Just curious I know a lot of you joke around about it being a warm winter and always talking negative. But in all reality this winter looks to give us a decent chance at some snow right? Or are all these YouTubers and even tv meteorologists (Chris Justus) just trying to get clicks with there winter forecast this year?
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
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WSW
Guest
This was a big sleet storm for much of NC and the SC upstate. It occurred in a strong Niño in which December was an absolute torch.
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WSW
Guest
Yeah we definitely may need to thread the needle but I think there will be chances.
No El Nino historically brings above average snowfall. More moisture usually means a better chance of syncing up with cold and the southern US has more periods of below average temps because of cloud cover and rain. Not because of prolonged frigid Arctic air. Matter of fact the source regions are usually warmer than average. I'm saying warmer than average overall and that's 100% what I think will happen, not trolling. We haven't had a below average winter season since 14-15 and that was barely below. Before that was 09-10 I think. Maybe 10-11 because of the frigid Dec and 1st of Jan but I know that winter flipped so can't remember the overall average. So no reason to think this winter will be below average. Call it what you want, climate change, bad patterns, climate cycles or whatever but there's no denying we're in prolonged period of above average temps regardless of ENSO.
I remember last year we actually had some real cold shots and not a drop of moisture to go with it. I think I’d rather take my shot with the El Niño. Surely the cold, even if it’s not record breaking cold, will line up with some moisture this year. Fingers crossed.
Itryatgolf
Member
We had some 20-25in amounts here back in Feb 2021 from the Arctic blast and two snow storms when it was snowing in the upper single digits??
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WSW
Guest
I miss snow. In Florida right now temporarily. Realized quickly I hate Florida...lol. Been raining for hours. Air you can wear. Topography sucks here. Everywhere looks the same.
Yep, in the middle of the playoffs that year. If you look at the NFCCG, there’s piles of it pushed in the corners.
December 2015 Christmas was mid 70s with mid 60s dewpoints. Miserable.
Yes I was at the NFC Championship game that year and there were piles pushed up in the upper concourse as well
griteater
Member
For winter nuts, maybe a handy metric would be to calculate how much precipitation typically falls in the cold/cool sector of low pressure systems vs warm sector, over winter, per ENSO type. That is, how much rain/snow/ice falls with low pressure tracking to our south vs rain showers / thunderstorm precipitation with low pressure tracking to our north....i.e. precipitation amounts from thunderstorms can skew the numbers as it relates to the type of winter precipitation that most are looking for. What we want more than anything of course is for the storm track to be to our south, then we roll the dice with whether or not there is enough cold air in place ahead of the system. On average, El Nino helps with a more southerly storm track compared to La Nina. My take for this winter is that we will see a mixed bag with regard to storm track - some favorable periods and some not so favorable periods, most likely corresponding to periodic MJO activity and the presence (or lack thereof) of blocking to the north.
I know an average amount about ENSO and a little bit about the MJO (longer term trends). But because of my limited knowledge I've focused more on blocking for short term trends. I've come to think that the (+)PNA is the most important thing for the SE (particularly for the eastern areas). But I'm thinking this year (with El Nino) we may need more help from the (-)NAO. We'll need a pattern to lock/slow down highs to our north. As Grit said above, we'll get the storm track (hopefully), but cold is going to be a hard thing to tap.
According to a study by the NWS in Raleigh, a negative NAO is the teleconnection that is most likely to prevalent in a winter storm outside of the mountains in NC. In that study, it shows that becomes even more so in an El Niño
That's interesting. I've always put more faith in the PNA but everybody has always hyped the (-) NAO as the best setup to block/slow highs to our north.
Climate Variability: North Atlantic Oscillation
The North Atlantic Oscillation tracks a seesawing of surface pressure between two parts of the North Atlantic. Different phases often bring predictable changes in winds, temperature, and precipitation in the United States and Europe.
Itryatgolf
Member
We had a -nao in December last year, but the way the trough was aligned out west muted the effects of it in the east
Other than last year, recent Nina’s have been better in the SE Vs ninos ??
La Nina’s have the cold nearby most of the time at some point in the winter. Still think this winters upcoming Nino acts more like a Nino, but like last year (January esp with the mega pac jet) and 2020, tropical forcing and the subseasonal pattern is a big driver and can lead to deviant patterns that don’t often appear with a + or - ENSO
La Nina’s have the cold nearby most of the time at some point in the winter. Still think this winters upcoming Nino acts more like a Nino, but like last year (January esp with the mega pac jet) and 2020, tropical forcing and the subseasonal pattern is a big driver and can lead to deviant patterns that don’t often appear with a + or - ENSOThe problem with the PNA is the issue that we faced last December, when we saw such strongly +PNA around Christmas that it squashed everything too far south so we were left with cold and dry.That's interesting. I've always put more faith in the PNA but everybody has always hyped the (-) NAO as the best setup to block/slow highs to our north.
Climate Variability: North Atlantic Oscillation
The North Atlantic Oscillation tracks a seesawing of surface pressure between two parts of the North Atlantic. Different phases often bring predictable changes in winds, temperature, and precipitation in the United States and Europe.www.climate.gov
SnowNiner
Member
Other than last year, recent Nina’s have been better in the SE Vs ninos ??
To me that has been the biggest driver the last several years, the forcing in the Pacific and where the jet ends up. Ninos have acted like Ninas and Ninas have acted like Ninos, all because of some weird stuff going on in the Pacific. Indian Dipole, Mountain Torque, MJO etc. I'm not even sure ENSO matters much anymore because the Carolina piedmont would snow and not snow in both.
My fear is that the significant global warming we've seen (for whatever reason) has put us in a pattern where the pacific stays more or less hostile for eastern troughs, and that western troughs prevail more times than not. I hope that's not the case but based on observation the last several years, a continuation of that will be my guess for the upcoming winter.
Maybe for areas east of the mountains, but I don't think that holds for areas west of the mountains, IE TN, AL, MS.
I agree. The study was for NC climo specifically. Areas west of the mountains probably have the +PNA as the most prevalent teleconnection, though I suspect that bigger storms typically have a -NAO. For those of us east of the mountains, a -NAO will often lead to stronger and deeper CAD.