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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

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Itryatgolf said:
I don't think the -AAM is going to change quickly so which months do you think will have the best opportunity to be cold, if any?
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I've been a pretty big fan of a gradual step down through the cold season. My preliminary thoughts were +5-7 for Dec, +2-4 for Jan, -1-3 for Feb, -2-4 for March. That said I'm not sure about those with what's out there now and would really want to reevaluate before a final forecast
 
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SD said:
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I've been a pretty big fan of a gradual step down through the cold season. My preliminary thoughts were +5-7 for Dec, +2-4 for Jan, -1-3 for Feb, -2-4 for March. That said I'm not sure about those with what's out there now and would really want to reevaluate before a final forecast
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Alot of conflicting signals more than normal. It makes it tricky. Hopefully you will post them soon when you have more confidence
 
Itryatgolf said:
What's interesting is Dr. Roundy from UOA said that he believes DEC and March may be the coldest months due to -AAM background this year.
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Did he state that to you? I think you said you’ve had some dialog with him before. Reason I ask is that his 100 day low pass tool looks coldest / most wintry from late Jan thru Feb
 
griteater said:
Did he state that to you? I think you said you’ve had some dialog with him before. Reason I ask is that his 100 day low pass tool looks coldest / most wintry from late Jan thru Feb
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He mentioned on Twitter about December and March the other day, perhaps he meant December and March being the warmest? I guess I was incorrect
 
Meteo France 3-run trend for February

nEo20yC.gif
 
BullCityWx said:
Common sense in any el nino would tell you dont get your hopes up for December and practice patience.
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I’m not sure where the panic of it doesn’t snow in December comes from honestly. I can count on one hand the snows I’ve seen in December. Late January through early March has always been the sweet spot for NC east of the mountains. I get being pessimistic with recent history but it’s somewhat ridiculous.
 
jeremyt said:
I’m not sure where the panic of it doesn’t snow in December comes from honestly. I can count on one hand the snows I’ve seen in December. Late January through early March has always been the sweet spot for NC east of the mountains. I get being pessimistic with recent history but it’s somewhat ridiculous.
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Exactly…I could understand it if we were in a La Niña like the last several years where we know that chances of something after mid January are greatly reduced. However being in an El Niño, I pretty much expect that December isn’t going to produce. Have there been exceptions? Sure December 1997 and 2009 come to mind, but those were exceptions and not the general rule. I personally think there’s a higher chance that we have a December like 2015 than there is of us seeing snow during the month.
 
The +IOD correlation pattern is almost a perfect match for current global SSTs.

ncllAUwqbeS5y.tmpqq.png


crw_sstamean_global.png


When you regress this SST pattern onto 500mb heights over N America, you see the classic SW US troughing - SE Canada/eastern US ridge pattern that is so common in moderate-strong east-based El Niño winters. The +IOD is also going to suppress a lot of MJO activity over the Indo-Pacific region for the first portion of winter, providing us with less breaks from this pattern in December.

I don't really see how we avoid this in December.


nclrBemoAU2wu.tmpqq.png
 
The latest C3S 500mb forecast for Dec-Feb compared to the 500mb composite for moderate-strong "East-based" El Niños since 1876. December and February are very close matches overall, while the January forecast (as usual for ENSO) exhibits the greatest variance from the historical composite.

I suspect there may be an MJO or Kelvin Wave-related forcing collapse of the +IOD that spurs about this discrepancy & allows the large-scale circulation pattern to get shaken up.

Screenshot 2023-11-10 at 8.26.04 AM.png


Screenshot 2023-11-10 at 8.25.42 AM.png

Screenshot 2023-11-10 at 8.25.33 AM.png
 

Alaska's largest city declares 'snow emergency' after record snowfall piles up on back-to-back days..​

A winter storm dropped record snowfall amounts in Anchorage, Alaska, with some areas outside of Anchorage proper receiving more than 2 feet of snowfall in just two days.

The largest city in Alaska broke its daily snowfall record on Wednesday when 9 inches of snow fell in 24 hours. For context, the previous record for Nov. 8 was 7.3 inches set in 1982. Another 8.2 inches piled up on Thursday, which also broke the daily record of 7.1 inches set on Nov. 9, 1956. That brought Anchorage's two-day total to 17.2 inches of snow.

By late Thursday, Anchorage had a 21-inch snow depth, or the total amount of snow on the ground. This was Anchorage's greatest snow depth for so early in the season, according to Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider. Already, 26.6 inches of snow has fallen in Anchorage this season, which is 17.5 inches above the average snowfall to date for Nov. 9.
 
Snow forecast for NC, mountains are always the hardest spot, map shows Boone in the 12-18” sector but most likely they are gonna get a foot more then that, especially during a Nino winter, but overall, a average to slightly above normal year for snow in NC, primarily the second half of winter 55053BD2-78B4-411F-8817-9011F0992079.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Snow forecast for NC, mountains are always the hardest spot, map shows Boone in the 12-18” sector but most likely they are gonna get a foot more then that, especially during a Nino winter, but overall, a average to slightly above normal year for snow in NC, primarily the second half of winter View attachment 137881
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Honestly you went kinda conservative for the mountains imo.
 
Here's my predictions for a bunch of NC cities.

Boone: 2-3ft+

Beech Mtn: 6ft+

Asheville: 1ft-18"

Hickory: 10" - 1ft

Greensboro: 6-10"

Raleigh: 3-8" (Less south of 85, more North)

NW Charlotte Metro: 5 - 9"

Charlotte and SW Metro: 2 - 6"

Edit: I forgot the average snowfalls for Boone and Beech Mtn and underestimated them, so I revised the forecast.
 
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My first one of these and sure to be wrong :) This winter is hard to gage in the snow aspect. I think we’ll have the moisture so we’ll have some shots. And it usually only takes one to make the average, even for me up here in valleys of WNC. Given the most recent strong/super Ninos 97-98 and 15-16, my concern we’re stuck in a repeating -PNA pattern and my limited understanding the PDO, IOD and AAM are not in favorable states, my guess would be this is a top 20-25 warmest winter. I wouldn’t be shocked if December is top 10 warmest. I do think we’ll get that “one” and most of us hit average or a little over thanks to a window in January. We’ll get more chances here in WNC but I think those chances will be the NC/TN line and up into the N Mountains.
 
SimeonNC said:
Here's my predictions for a bunch of NC cities.

Boone: 2-3ft+

Beech Mtn: 6ft+

Asheville: 1ft-18"

Hickory: 10" - 1ft

Greensboro: 6-10"

Raleigh: 3-8" (Less south of 85, more North)

NW Charlotte Metro: 5 - 9"

Charlotte and SW Metro: 2 - 6"

Edit: I forgot the average snowfalls for Boone and Beech Mtn and underestimated them, so I revised the forecast.
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I'm just gonna re-do this entire forecast and add more locales/details. I made the quoted post while at work and rushed it.


Boone: 36"-48"

Beech Mtn: 72"+

Mount Mitchell: 100"+

Asheville: 12"-18"

Hickory: 6-14"

Greensboro: 6-14"

Statesville: 5-12"

Raleigh Metro: 2-5" SE of 85, 4-8" NW of 85.

Charlotte Metro: 5-9" NW of 85(Huntersville, Cornelius, ect.), 2-6" Charlotte proper and SE of 85(Rock Hill, Rockingham, ect.)

Upstate SC: 1-4" SE of 85, 3-6" NW of 85.

The coastal plain of NC is too volatile for me to confidently forecast, though I do think there is a potential for them to even outdo favored Piedmont and lower Foothills locales with the right storm track. Overall I have the biggest confidence in the mountains having a very good winter, with my confidence lowering with the elevation. Temperature forecasts are moot at this point since winters will likely continue to be "above average" for the foreseeable future for reasons I will not mention in this post but should be easily figured out. I do think if there is a year for the Piedmont/CAD areas to have a major ice storm this would be the year, we nearly had it in 2022 but we were saved by a thinner than expected warm nose. As I said in the past I do think there is a decent chance for a HECS due to the warm ENSO state and the warm Atlantic SSTs, which would also lead to the classic I-85 split.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Here’s my stab:
GSP 8”
RDU 5”
CLT 6”
TULSA 18”
JONESVILLE 4”
ATL 3”
BNA 6”
DBQ 48”
CONCORD 8”
FUQUAY VARINA 7”
Seasonal snowfall thoughts from Mack
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If we get 18 inches I may die ?

It must have been something here in 2009-2011 two back to back years over 20 inches and a blizzard both winters
 
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Ok folks here's my snowfall prediction totals for some southern cities oh and by the way I may have had to much beer while typing this LMAO ?

Atlanta 10-20"
Phenix city 8-15"
Birmingham 10-20"
Nashville 18-25"
Charlotte 12-22"
Raleigh 15-25"
Macon 8-15"
Jackson 8-15"
Montgomery 8-15"
Tulsa 15-25"
Dallas 10-20"
Memphis 15-25"
Columbia 10-20"
Huntsville 12-22"
 
I’ll take a stab at it.

Asheville - 4”
Atlanta - 0”
Birmingham - 0”
Boone - 14”
Charlotte - 0”
Chattanooga - T
Columbia - 0”
Durham - .5”
Greensboro - 2”
Greenville - T
Huntsville - T
Knoxville - 4”
Nashville- 3”
Raleigh - T
 
Snowmiser33 said:
Ok folks here's my snowfall prediction totals for some southern cities oh and by the way I may have had to much beer while typing this LMAO ?

Atlanta 10-20"
Phenix city 8-15"
Birmingham 10-20"
Nashville 18-25"
Charlotte 12-22"
Raleigh 15-25"
Macon 8-15"
Jackson 8-15"
Montgomery 8-15"
Tulsa 15-25"
Dallas 10-20"
Memphis 15-25"
Columbia 10-20"
Huntsville 12-22"
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Lmao
 
It's my time to shine! I can't rain with the big boys during summer. But if it's going to snow in SC outside the highest peaks it's a wrap I get more than any! Wait a minute, scratch that, I forgot CAE and the coastal plain is more prone to huge storms than me. Fml ?‍♂️
 
Snowmiser33 said:
Ok folks here's my snowfall prediction totals for some southern cities oh and by the way I may have had to much beer while typing this LMAO ?

Atlanta 10-20"
Phenix city 8-15"
Birmingham 10-20"
Nashville 18-25"
Charlotte 12-22"
Raleigh 15-25"
Macon 8-15"
Jackson 8-15"
Montgomery 8-15"
Tulsa 15-25"
Dallas 10-20"
Memphis 15-25"
Columbia 10-20"
Huntsville 12-22"
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At least 15-25 is closer to our average of 9 than most of these ?
 
You all have probably heard a lot about month-to-month temperature variability in El Niño winters, but what about the finer scale details?

Well, here's what a weighted 3-week moving average composite "relative" temperature anomaly looks like for *every* moderate-strong El Niño since 1876. (Note: "East-based" El Niños and El Niños accompanied by a +IOD were weighted more in this composite).

Most of you are probably already aware that strong El Niño Decembers tend to be rather mild in the Eastern US. This chart actually shows that these anomalously mild conditions tend to be favored more in mid-late December/closer to Christmas. Early in December, there's not much signal. Of course, you'll also notice that the first 2/3rds or so of February tend to be the coldest (& snowiest!) parts of an El Niño winter!


Relative Temp Anomaly NE US El Nino Analogs 2023-24.jpeg


Here's the time series in the context of uncertainty (approximated as spread) between the 15 sites used to create this graph.

The warm periods in mid-late December and even mid-late January are significant. The mid-late January warm-up is more prevalent over the northern US/closer to New England, hardly noticeable over the southern US in the grand scheme of things.

Also notice the cool-down, centered around the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February, is very significant, in fact, it's the most prominent feature on this entire chart.

Relative Temp Anomaly With Uncertainty NE US El Nino Analogs 2023-24.jpeg
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Asheville - T
Atlanta - ?
Birmingham - NA
Boone - 8”
Charlotte - no
Chattanooga - T
Columbia - lol
Durham - no
Greensboro - no
Greenville - rain
Huntsville - dry anafront
Knoxville - 1”
Nashville- 1.5”
Raleigh - rain
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Ha ha....at least I get rain. It's getting to the point that's priority...
 
Webberweather53 said:
You all have probably heard a lot about month-to-month temperature variability in El Niño winters, but what about the finer scale details?

Well, here's what a weighted 3-week moving average composite "relative" temperature anomaly looks like for *every* moderate-strong El Niño since 1876. (Note: "East-based" El Niños and El Niños accompanied by a +IOD were weighted more in this composite).

Most of you are probably already aware that strong El Niño Decembers tend to be rather mild in the Eastern US. This chart actually shows that these anomalously mild conditions tend to be favored more in mid-late December/closer to Christmas. Early in December, there's not much signal. Of course, you'll also notice that the first 2/3rds or so of February tend to be the coldest (& snowiest!) parts of an El Niño winter!


View attachment 137905


Here's the time series in the context of uncertainty (approximated as spread) between the 15 sites used to create this graph.

The warm periods in mid-late December and even mid-late January are significant. The mid-late January warm-up is more prevalent over the northern US/closer to New England, hardly noticeable over the southern US in the grand scheme of things.

Also notice the cool-down, centered around the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February, is very significant, in fact, it's the most prominent feature on this entire chart.

View attachment 137906
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The January spike is interesting, thanks for the insight! Feb or bust!
 
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