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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Generally from what I've seen a relatively AN December with N/BN January-March for this nino. We'll see.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Hopefully lots of things to report in Blacksburg this winter?
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December into early jan imo is gonna be a slow start. Maybe an opportunity or 2, but will likely be dominated by a strong pacific jet, the -PMM is warming as well. This encourages an even stronger pacific jet. It’s worth noting that in Nino years, the chances of -NAO increases especially the later you get, the GOAK trough also has a tendency to disrupt the SPV. and the chances of a better pattern as wavelengths start to shorten, the main driver this winter (will not always be there but will likely be a notable feature) will probably the a strong pacific/GOAK trough/cutoff, as we head later into winter, and as wavelengths shorten, it’s easier for the jet to retract a little, and the pacific trough to snap back and encourage western ridging, west pacific forcing becomes more favorable especially in mid-late jan, Vs nov-dec. It’s worth noting that KU events for the mid Atlantic are more common in ninos than Nina's, for example jan 2016 is the last one (strong El Niño). Basically slow start, better finish. This is my first winter forecast where I have been somewhat bullish
For ex we’re already seeing the effects of the El Niño, note the pacific trough in place resulting in a warm conus on the 10 day ens mean. Probably gonna see a lot of this over the next couple of months, although there some hints by the second week of October we may have a jet retraction phase25AFE213-F74E-458B-A637-01192490ECF6.png8FCECB41-042B-4A3D-B016-90CF5DF2228B.png
 
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I’m gonna ride this forecast till spring! 48” or bust! 10B5B19B-D444-463A-9D43-45BB17110A7C.png
 
LickWx said:
That forecast looks too optimistic lol, I’d say it’s a forecast for October 20th rather than October 9
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I agree. I don’t really see any chilly snaps that would speed up the color. Still seeing mostly night time lows upper 50s to lower 60s.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree. I don’t really see any chilly snaps that would speed up the color. Still seeing mostly night time lows upper 50s to lower 60s.
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Yeah, I think we are going to see the day highs cool down (Fall like) but the overnights are not going to be as chilly as usual
 
CaryWx said:
Yeah, I think we are going to see the day highs cool down (Fall like) but the overnights are not going to be as chilly as usual
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Yes and if you look back, that was really what happened in the last El Niño in 2019. Now keep in mind that with it being a strong Niño, we will absolutely probably have stretches of warm days deep into… keep in mind that year had what was probably the absolute muggiest Christmas Eve many of us in the Carolinas have ever experienced.
 
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This will be the season of the Noreasters. Which means a lot of big dogs, mixed precip Galore for MBY, And even on the high volume cold rain events, a lot of backend wrap around snow for the northern mtns.
 
As for the “Battle Zone” on maps, a better name may be the “Pain Zone.”

Wishing all of us get at least 1 Big Dog this upcoming season!
 
BullCityWx said:
Since we don’t have a met program at Duke, I was curious about your program structure. That abroad thing they do in Scotland is pretty dang neat.
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They do all kinds of trips, including a plains chase trip every spring after the semester ends. They also do a summer Rocky Mountain hiking trip.
 
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