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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Updated CanSIPS




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NoSnowATL said:
IDk, November looks dry for the 1st half so it for the CanSIP to be right the 2nd half better bring the rain.
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Looks very dry, I would be on the lookout for forest fires soon. Already a couple up here in VA. My Weather Analysis professor mentioned that the Gatlinburg area is drier now than it was before the 2016 fires.
 
I'm still pretty confident in the possibility of a window of opportunity in December. Once we get into the middle of this month we need to start looking at the indices and teleconnections and LR model runs.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Looks very dry, I would be on the lookout for forest fires soon. Already a couple up here in VA. My Weather Analysis professor mentioned that the Gatlinburg area is drier now than it was before the 2016 fires.
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There is a 1400 acre fire atop Lookout Mountain that broke containment yesterday. It has caused smoke into Chattanooga. Luckily the winds look relatively calm the next few days.
 
Triplephase93 said:
There is a 1400 acre fire atop Lookout Mountain that broke containment yesterday. It has caused smoke into Chattanooga. Luckily the winds look relatively calm the next few days.
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There’s a plume of smoke showing on satellite from that one and one in Henderson County,NC
 
tennessee storm said:
Think we are heading toward a
Nino on steroids be honest ….
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El nino will be peaking very soon. Absolutely no chance of a super Nino. MEI is still in weak range. For all practical purposes, we are looking at an atmosphere that acts like a weak to moderate nino despite what 3.4 temps say. That's why we haven't seen the subtropical jet fire up yet. The atmosphere has not fully recovered from that triple dip Nina.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
El nino will be peaking very soon. Absolutely no chance of a super Nino. MEI is still in weak range. For all practical purposes, we are looking at an atmosphere that acts like a weak to moderate nino despite what 3.4 temps say. That's why we haven't seen the subtropical jet fire up yet. The atmosphere has not fully recovered from that triple dip Nina.
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The atmosphere is clearly in -AAM state which is niña
 
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Cad Wedge NC said:
El nino will be peaking very soon. Absolutely no chance of a super Nino. MEI is still in weak range. For all practical purposes, we are looking at an atmosphere that acts like a weak to moderate nino despite what 3.4 temps say. That's why we haven't seen the subtropical jet fire up yet. The atmosphere has not fully recovered from that triple dip Nina.
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Models r showing peaking mid winter actually. We have a ways to go still
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Regarding basing winter outlooks on solely the ENSO state, here's a little humble pie.
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I don't think anyone on here was basing the winter outlook on ENSO state alone. That's just one piece of the pie. El nino just means that the subtropical jet will be across the southern US. It's up to other factors like PNA and NAO to make the winter. I look at the prospects of high latitude blocking (AO/NAO) more than any one index. When you couple our current ENSO state with a -NAO it will average below normal in our neck of the woods 100% of those winters
 
Snowmiser33 said:
Hey guys new poster here I love winter weather and I just moved to the south from Minnesota.. Hope to learn as much as possible from you experts through this upcoming winter
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Best advice I can give you if you love winter weather is to move back to Minnesota….I kid I kid. But not really. Welcome though!
 
Snowmiser33 said:
Hey guys new poster here I love winter weather and I just moved to the south from Minnesota.. Hope to learn as much as possible from you experts through this upcoming winter
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The dynamics here are like threading yarn through a fine needle ?! There are many here that are well versed in setups but at the end of the day it’s anyone’s guess. Not like where you are from where you can seeing it coming for a week! Timing on everything is key here.
 
So, it's November, time for predictions for the winter to come out in full force. Here are my two cents.

I don't understand the intricacies of the Nino and east based, etc. However I feel that they're generally wet so I think the winter will have moisture around. But really who knows? Ninos act like Ninas and vice versa based on pacific forcing, so I don't put much stock in them anymore. Temperatures I believe will be warm overall, 3-5 degrees above normal. This is simply because that's what it always is, we always have warmer than normal winters IMBY. I'm not sure I remember the last time it was overall cooler than average so I'm betting the streak. So, wet, generally warm but periods of cold based on when the pacific jet hits the sweet spot. When it's in the right spot for a western ridge/eastern trough, we'll have a shot at winter weather. When it's retreated, or on steroids, we're warm. Honestly I think this is our winters for the foreseeable future.

Will the pacific jet be in the right spot enough to get us winter weather? I don't know. It seems like the MJO has had a significant influence the last few years, so I'll be watching that.
 
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