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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Dropping this in here. Photo of my late mother and my oldest brother in Charlotte. He was born in 1965, so it's sometime in the late 60's. Classic looking Carolina Piedmont storm with some light accumulating snow & sleet, followed by freezing rain (can see the ice cycles hanging off the car on the right)

kAzaKNf.jpg
 
From Ben Noll's Twitter:
"The ECMWF+UKMET superblend* for December 2023-February 2024 is very active along the U.S. East Coast Consistent with an El Niño winter, above normal precipitation () is shown across the Deep South, Southeast, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast as well as California. The risk for East Coast storms looks higher than normal, but cold air may be at a premium! The El Niño-fuelled jet stream is predicted to extend all the way across the Atlantic into Europe, driving frequent storm systems from the southwest. In Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, parts of South America, and the off-equatorial Pacific, El Niño-influenced droughts are possible. *Superblend = combination of the ECMWF and UKMET seasonal forecasting systems, consisting of about 110 ensemble members. They comprise two of the best seasonal modelling systems."
 
Think you have to put the SE as normal right now and watch the next 60-75 days play out. Too much uncertainty on timing of going into a colder pattern and how warm December could be to confidently put the season BN. If you add March though....
 
RockHillSCWx said:
From Ben Noll's Twitter:
"The ECMWF+UKMET superblend* for December 2023-February 2024 is very active along the U.S. East Coast Consistent with an El Niño winter, above normal precipitation () is shown across the Deep South, Southeast, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast as well as California. The risk for East Coast storms looks higher than normal, but cold air may be at a premium! The El Niño-fuelled jet stream is predicted to extend all the way across the Atlantic into Europe, driving frequent storm systems from the southwest. In Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, parts of South America, and the off-equatorial Pacific, El Niño-influenced droughts are possible. *Superblend = combination of the ECMWF and UKMET seasonal forecasting systems, consisting of about 110 ensemble members. They comprise two of the best seasonal modelling systems."
Click to expand...
I'm wondering if the seasonals are basing the winter off the classic elniño pattern, which is typically warm December and gets colder after
 
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