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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Iceagewhereartthou said:
I think that theory is about as reliable as looking at wooly worms.
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Which is about reliable as all other winter forecast. ///But I agree, there's nothing statistical that proves this right. Just a lot of memories of early (cold) season storms, with lots of excitement about a great upcoming winter, and then ultimately a warm winter.
 
FallsLake said:
Which is about reliable as all other winter forecast. ///But I agree, there's nothing statistical that proves this right. Just a lot of memories of early (cold) season storms, with lots of excitement about a great upcoming winter, and then ultimately a warm winter.
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There's been a lot of talk about the wooly worms the past 3 or4 years and we see where that got us
 
Anybody checked the seeds in the persimmons yet? 80% accuracy ?
 
FallsLake said:
I'm mostly kidding, but the "theory" is any kind of big storm (nor'easter or hurricane) around Halloween signifies an upcoming warm winter.
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I don’t know about that…2012-2013 ended fairly cool after Sandy came in around Halloween
 
Tarheel1 said:
In my experiences down south, a big cold shot or big snowstorm in the mountains in October, usually equates to a crap winter 8 out of ten times! See October storm of 1991 Halloween storm, Mt Mitchell got like 4’ of snow, if I recall it was a crappy winter that followed!?
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I'm still remembering last year how the only heavy wet snow we got all winter was for 10 minutes in mid November... didn't even stick in the whole city

The only accumulating snow was the dry stuff when the wind chill was -20 at Christmas
 
If you can find enough cold air from the north, and a southern storm track, the Gulf and Carribean are a powder keg of warm moisture ready to supply copious storm fuel...at or above record water temperatures when comparing back to 1982...


XrUKaEN.png



abOA1JG.png
 
griteater said:
If you can find enough cold air from the north, and a southern storm track, the Gulf and Carribean are a powder keg of warm moisture ready to supply copious storm fuel...at or above record water temperatures when comparing back to 1982...


XrUKaEN.png



abOA1JG.png
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Bring it on
 
Chazwin said:
I don’t know about that…2012-2013 ended fairly cool after Sandy came in around Halloween
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It was ok. I had a couple of 2" events.

www.webberweather.com

2010s Winter Storms (NC)

*Please note that clicking on any of the underlined hyperlinks to individual storms, seasons, and decades alike (except for the first decade (1890s)) will all direct you to a different snow and...
www.webberweather.com
 
griteater said:
If you can find enough cold air from the north, and a southern storm track, the Gulf and Carribean are a powder keg of warm moisture ready to supply copious storm fuel...at or above record water temperatures when comparing back to 1982...


XrUKaEN.png



abOA1JG.png
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Somehow the dry slot will cut totals by half
 
griteater said:
If you can find enough cold air from the north, and a southern storm track, the Gulf and Carribean are a powder keg of warm moisture ready to supply copious storm fuel...at or above record water temperatures when comparing back to 1982...


XrUKaEN.png



abOA1JG.png
Click to expand...
Good to know my hunch about this winter having a high potential for a HECS has some actual support and isn't a complete wishcast XD
 
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In the 133-year record back to the winter of 1890-1891, there have only been 6 winters in which Asheville recorded more snowfall than Boston. Here are the years and associated composite maps for those winters: 1) Dec-Mar 500mb Ht Anomalies, 2) 850mb Temperature Anomalies, 3) Surface Temperature Anomalies, 4) Precipitation Anomalies

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Biggest November snowstorm in NC.
Hit on November 9,1968. Was a 3 day storm. Great article here.

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The Biggest November Snowstorm in North Carolina History - NewsBreak

North Carolina has more noticeable rain storms than snow storms. Their snow storms typically begin in December. One of their biggest snowstorms hit North Carolina back in January 2000. The Carolina Crusher gave the state twenty-four inches of snow in twenty-four hours. The Raleigh-Durham area...
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NCSNOW said:
Biggest November snowstorm in NC.
Hit on November 9,1968. Was a 3 day storm. Great article here.

share.newsbreak.com

The Biggest November Snowstorm in North Carolina History - NewsBreak

North Carolina has more noticeable rain storms than snow storms. Their snow storms typically begin in December. One of their biggest snowstorms hit North Carolina back in January 2000. The Carolina Crusher gave the state twenty-four inches of snow in twenty-four hours. The Raleigh-Durham area...
share.newsbreak.com share.newsbreak.com
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Incredible blocking that winter 68-69 winter
 
LickWx said:
They actually nailed the summer forecast so I would give this some attention
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Looks like a fairly typical outlook for a moderate to strong El Niño… I’m not sold that much of the SE ends up below average for the entire winter… I think there’s going to be some really mild periods in December
 
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El Niños like the one coming up (especially later in the winter) love I-40. The eastern US is the biggest wildcard, late jan-Feb in El Niño winters (not the Mickey Mouse ass El Niños we’ve recently had) normally are boom or bust across the eastern US, gonna go with the boom scenario, especially with the signal for NW Canada ridging which is the threshold normally for winter storms18BA8FDE-B341-4A17-81A7-016161127C44.jpeg
 
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