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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

I think for the western 2/3rds of NC/SC, if you take out the ‘93 Superstorm and the January 1996 storm, it would probably take out 50-75% of the total snowfall in the 90s… depending on location
Yeah without those 2 the 90's have much less snowfall for most of us.
 
I have some memorable snow storms from the late 90’s. 96 or 97 had a good storm. I’m not saying that you are wrong at all but like you mentioned, you can still over produce in non statistical years!
It was probably 95-96 you remember. Here is the monthly totals going back to the 1950s.
Screenshot_20230831_140116_Gallery.jpg
 
Yeah without those 2 the 90's have much less snowfall for most of us.
That is true. Those saved the 90s from being a complete disaster. Not sure storms like that can save the 20s. Our best storms come with marginal setups. That's always been true and is true even for the NE. It seems now the marginal setups have such a strong warm nose likely from high sea surface temps that we waste half the qpf on sleet or zr. Then when we get the strong push of Arctic air where cold seems like it wouldn't be a problem it always supresses the storm track.
 
That is true. Those saved the 90s from being a complete disaster. Not sure storms like that can save the 20s. Our best storms come with marginal setups. That's always been true and is true even for the NE. It seems now the marginal setups have such a strong warm nose likely from high sea surface temps that we waste half the qpf on sleet or zr. Then when we get the strong push of Arctic air where cold seems like it wouldn't be a problem it always supresses the storm track.
One thing that I do think is going in our favor in the Carolinas for this winter is that we seem to have cycled back into a period where long stretches of high latitude blocking set up during the winter. That does correlate with higher winter weather opportunities in the southeast. Also looking past El Niños, even moderate to strong ones that have longer stretches of mild weather, they do still typically produce 1-2 significant events outside the mountain in the Carolina, and those storms tend to set up with good blocking…the 1997-98 Super Niño is a good example.
 
gfs_asnow_wus_65.png
 
Take out the Carolina Crusher and RAH’s snow total for the 2000-2009 period would have been like 5.7” total
 
Take out the Carolina Crusher and RAH’s snow total for the 2000-2009 period would have been like 5.7” total
I would take that period again. We had some pretty good storms during that range.

This is just one of many events:
1693523557480.png
 
Take out the Carolina Crusher and RAH’s snow total for the 2000-2009 period would have been like 5.7” total
The crusher was crazy. One foot where I am and very little above I-85 in SC. We got a foot here in late Feb 2004 too. Next best one was March 2009, although we missed the best of it.
 
One thing that I do think is going in our favor in the Carolinas for this winter is that we seem to have cycled back into a period where long stretches of high latitude blocking set up during the winter. That does correlate with higher winter weather opportunities in the southeast. Also looking past El Niños, even moderate to strong ones that have longer stretches of mild weather, they do still typically produce 1-2 significant events outside the mountain in the Carolina, and those storms tend to set up with good blocking…the 1997-98 Super Niño is a good example.
Yep I think we'll be satisfied with our snowfall this year. I just like to keep my expectations in check. I don't think any city from ATL to RDU breaks double digits for the season though. RDU would have the best chance imo being in a better spot for deepening coastal storms.
 
Yep I think we'll be satisfied with our snowfall this year. I just like to keep my expectations in check. I don't think any city from ATL to RDU breaks double digits for the season though. RDU would have the best chance imo being in a better spot for deepening coastal storms.
I never expect to see a double digit season east of the mountains and south of I-40. Obviously a number of us are certainly due.
 
The crusher was crazy. One foot where I am and very little above I-85 in SC. We got a foot here in late Feb 2004 too. Next best one was March 2009, although we missed the best of it.
Yeah, I had 8” in March 2009, but a dusting from the crusher! ?
 
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