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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Rain Cold

Rain Cold

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Ask and ye shall receive!

Going to be another stinker for the SE. Probably end up +2 - +5 for D-M with AN precip. Why? Nino, plus whatever the background reason for the parade of wintertime -PNAs, cool upper-midwest patterns, routine MJO P3-6s, and neutral/+NAO regimes that we've been stuck in for a decade.

Maybe that dude on YouTube in the hoodie who loves cold easts and winter battle zones thinks differently, though.

Anyway, have at it!
 
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With a pumped up southern jet , all y’all need is one big arctic shot to meat up with the Pineapple Express and then you’re golden!
I really don’t know what to expect up here, since my first 3 winters here were La Nina’s, so will be interesting to see. I’ve seen averages for above normal temps and below normal snowfall for Ninos here, but we will see
 
cyclogent said:
Analogs for this upcoming winter aren't too shabby.
The last 3 occurrences of a strong Nino following a multi-year Nina were 1957-58, 1982-83, and 2009-10.
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57-58 and 09-10 is among our snowiest winters ever

82-83 not so much although still way better than last year
 
1982-83 was nasty here in upstate SC A lot of snow to freezing rain and ending as rain events here, but we did get between 10-11 inches of pure snow on 3-24-1983. 2009-10 was not so good here as we basically got glanced by the big events in my backyard and completely missed the big one before Christmas 2009.
 
First post since March. I can smell the shorter days approaching.? one of the most uneventful springs/summers since I've been here. Almost no thunder. But the temps have been great!

we cruising for a strong El Nino. I hope that doesn't blast us with too much southern energy. But hey I'm down for a change of pace after what 3 Nina's winters in a row?
 
I know it's still early, but ideally we want central based niño and -qbo to have a chance at colder here. It definitely just takes one winter storm to put us over normals
 
I know it’s my own back yard but we still need some rain, and the radar is laughable. The areas that need it are seeing the squall line break up, the areas that don’t need it are getting what’s left of the squall. Pshttt.
 
One of these years we are going to get lucky and see all of this globular warming anomalous moisture in the gulf run into an air mass that is cold enough for a huge winter storm south of the favored Asheville to Greensboro corridor (i.e. Dallas, Jackson, Birmingham, Chattanooga, ATL, Upstate, CLT, Raleigh). It’s going to happen, and with a healthy El Niño, this is as good a shot as any
 
cyclogent said:
Analogs for this upcoming winter aren't too shabby.
The last 3 occurrences of a strong Nino following a multi-year Nina were 1957-58, 1982-83, and 2009-10.
Click to expand...
Those are some good years for the southeast and 2009-10 is fairly recent. I still think we end up with a slightly above average winter temperature wise, but the good news is that with the El Niño, we will see a fairly active STJ…. this does help to keep the SER muted a bit and you got a better chance of moisture meeting up with cold shots. I am going to do something this year that I’ve done the last couple years and start watching how quickly things cool in NW Canada and the north slope of Alaska. It has really seemed the last few years that we get better opportunities at winter weather in the southeast when those spots are cooling down and not holding onto mild Pacific air.
 
I think another factor that could be a big player is all the fires Canada had this year!
 
Landscape changes, air quality and the entrapment of cold air layer from escaping into space. When we have a volcanic eruptions it's usually followed by colder conditions. Fires provide a similar blanket in the atmosphere.
 
Rain Cold said:
I thought this was a really good video about the polar vortex and global winds in general. The title is sort of click-baitish but the video is good. It's just over 15 minutes.

Click to expand...

I find this video very interesting, Thanks for posting it!! Happy snowy 2023/24 ❄️❄️⛄
 
We manage to get a lot of moisture (at least in the mountains and back this way) even during La Ninas when it's supposed to be drier. I can imagine what is going to come this winter with a very active subtropical jet. Hopefully we can get the cold to meet and cooperate this year.
 
iGRXY said:
We manage to get a lot of moisture (at least in the mountains and back this way) even during La Ninas when it's supposed to be drier. I can imagine what is going to come this winter with a very active subtropical jet. Hopefully we can get the cold to meet and cooperate this year.
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For sure. I'll take my chances with any El Nino around these parts as opposed to another La Nina. Thank goodness La Nina is history. Things need to be shook up compared to another La Nina. Hoping for a weak to moderate El Nino over a super but any El Nino is good with me this coming winter over Nina.
 
gfs_asnow_nwus_65.png


Its coming........
 
Was the latest I could see

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