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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Just putting this out here once again, It's been 5 winters in my neck of the woods (Dec 2018) since any decent amount fell and I'm not talking about 6 inches of snow either.

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Chazwin said:
CLT metro had 4-6” on 12/29/1997. Also obviously there was the Christmas storm in 2010 which it looks like you weren’t here for… yes both of those still have a good snowfall for us in the southeast part of the metro area. There’s been some smaller ones over the years, but those are the two that stand out in my lifetime. Oh and 12/4-5/2002 wasn’t much snow but it was the worst ice storm that CLT metro has ever had.
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I also count Dec of 88. I was a kid in far SE Harnett County and we had 6 inches or so! If I’m not mistaken there were token flakes prior to Thanksgiving in Concord in 2010. I was with my kids at Concord Mills and everyone went to the windows like there was something going on outside.
 
LickWx said:
Looking good





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Well, I’m hoping since all the cold and snowy winter predictions don’t ever seem to come to fruition, then I’m assuming this will be incorrect as well! As some suprise , unknown factor , will ruin the all out nuclear torch that most are forecasting!
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
It really doesn't look like we're headed to a strong El Nino though. Moderate at best.

And yes, a shake-up in the Pacific is welcome.

We're due for a good winter!
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We are heading for a strong Nino... basically already are.. the average of the 4 enso anomalies this week gives you a strength of +1.85. Which is a "strong" Nino.

Most guidance still peaks this above +2 into December/jan.

Now will it behave as previous strong ninos? That's another issue compounded by the stubborn PDO that refuses to flip.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
We are heading for a strong Nino... basically already are.. the average of the 4 enso anomalies this week gives you a strength of +1.85. Which is a "strong" Nino.

Most guidance still peaks this above +2 into December/jan.

Now will it behave as previous strong ninos? That's another issue compounded by the stubborn PDO that refuses to flip.
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What we have is a mix of niño and niña currently but million dollar question is which one will dominate during winter? The euro seasonal actually has a blend of both imo
 
It’s been interesting to see the OP GFS run after run pump a million troughs into the EC.
 
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Don’t know much about these people, but here’s their thoughts and I approve! They mention 09-10 in there as well! Giddy up! C6674F13-653C-47A8-8106-24B78672C0F2.png4E2D04D6-2BA3-4AFA-84D1-1463940B53E7.png
 
Broken024 said:
I’ve lived here from 1997-2001 and 2012-now. Don’t think I’ve ever seen it snow here in December.
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I can remember a few events:

12/27/97, 12/04/02, 12/25/10. I know I’m missing a few, including an early 90s event where it snowed a few days before Christmas. I remember 1997 because it was the first time I’d ever seen McAdenville covered with snow.
 
BullCityWx said:
I can remember a few events:

12/27/97, 12/04/02, 12/25/10. I know I’m missing a few, including an early 90s event where it snowed a few days before Christmas. I remember 1997 because it was the first time I’d ever seen McAdenville covered with snow.
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In Georgia, I've seen it snow in December in 1997, 2000, 2010, 2017. Those are the years I can remember.
 
BullCityWx said:
I can remember a few events:

12/27/97, 12/04/02, 12/25/10. I know I’m missing a few, including an early 90s event where it snowed a few days before Christmas. I remember 1997 because it was the first time I’d ever seen McAdenville covered with snow.
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I just remembered 1998 there was that Ice Storm that started in the afternoon of 12/23 and lasted through Christmas Eve… it ended with a quick burst of snow early on Christmas morning. It was only about a half inch but it was the only time I ever woke up in the house I grew up in to a snow covered ground on Christmas morning… my family and I had been at Myrtle Beach on Christmas in 1989 and experienced the coastal blizzard.
 
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First big mountain system I’ve seen so far on models! We are getting closer and closer
 
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I posted these graphics earlier on twitter/"x". They're based on nearly 40 *weighted* El Niño events since 1870, using NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 and a 30-year sliding climatology, whose center year of that climo that lags behind each year by a few decades to properly represent how 2023 compares to the most recent 1991-2020 climatology. This allows for a more accurate assessment of climate change's influence on this year's large-scale circulation & temperature anomalies. Unfortunately, precipitation and especially snowfall data aren't terribly reliable on a global scale prior to the mid 20th century & there just aren't enough moderate-strong & east-based ENSO events to accurately assess ENSO's footprint since 1950.

I'll start with this post showing the typical Dec-Mar 500mb and surface air temperature probabilities, and their respective composite anomalies.

I hope everyone here is able to take something away from this.

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Now, here's a month-by-month breakdown of Northern Hemisphere 500mb height anomaly probabilities for December through March for moderate-strong & east-based El Niños.

Notice how the overall winter circulation pattern progressively evolves from a mild one in December to a cooler/stormy one mid-late winter. In fact, the chances of below average height anomalies are a whopping 80-90% in February over the SE US, which is more than double the in December (~40%). General storminess is likely to even near-certain in winters like this in February, but a near-coin toss in December.

When we often talk about El Niño winters starting out slow, but turning cooler (& potentially snowier) by Jan & esp February, this is why. It's certainly not a guarantee this happens (as the graphics here show), but it's a rather strong tendency that the overwhelming majority of El Nino winters exhibit.

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Webberweather53 said:
Here's a corresponding month-by-month breakdown of CONUS temperature anomaly probabilities in moderate-strong & east-based El Niños:

Interestingly, the chances of a warmer-than-normal December exceed 80% over parts of the lower Great Lakes & NE US.

View attachment 137423


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If this verifies or even close, we can punt winter for the most part imo except maybe February unless we like chasing unicorns but it's still early so there is hope for now
 
Stevo24 said:
Actually if this verifies it’s what we want for Jan, Feb, and march. What do you mean punt?
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It's a slang for giving up on a certain month on winter weather and thinking about the next month. East based niños are usually warmer than average and typically wetter than average around here. Just a hyper STJ
 
Stevo24 said:
Actually if this verifies it’s what we want for Jan, Feb, and march. What do you mean punt?
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Most mean if it’s not wall to wall cold and snows every other day from Dec to Mar then it’s a toss! That’s said tongue in cheek but I’m seriously wondering why many think that if December doesn’t produce then we lose winter?
 
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Itryatgolf said:
It's a slang for giving up on a certain month on winter weather and thinking about the next month. East based niños are usually warmer than average and typically wetter than average around here. Just a hyper STJ
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This is definitely east based, I can’t get excited yet . Plus the strength of the nino
 
I've heard correlations with a cold October leads to colder winter, but I have my doubts. Also, we don't want a colder November after a colder October is what I've heard as well. What we do want is a few winter storm chances this winter so we have tracking opportunities
 
Itryatgolf said:
I've heard correlations with a cold October leads to colder winter, but I have my doubts. Also, we don't want a colder November after a colder October is what I've heard as well. What we do want is a few winter storm chances this winter so we have tracking opportunities
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In my experiences down south, a big cold shot or big snowstorm in the mountains in October, usually equates to a crap winter 8 out of ten times! See October storm of 1991 Halloween storm, Mt Mitchell got like 4’ of snow, if I recall it was a crappy winter that followed!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
In my experiences down south, a big cold shot or big snowstorm in the mountains in October, usually equates to a crap winter 8 out of ten times! See October storm of 1991 Halloween storm, Mt Mitchell got like 4’ of snow, if I recall it was a crappy winter that followed!?
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Also the Halloween 2011 storm and we all know how bad 2011-12 was
 
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