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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
dem niño’s just don’t niño no more
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I've said it before, ENSO doesn't matter. There is no pattern in the modern climate period that delivers a cold and snowy winter for the SE anymore.

Personally, I feel like an El Nino will give us the best chance, particularly if there is blocking. But unfortunately, there always seems to be some bad configuration of El Nino that takes hold: Super Nino, strong east-based, fades too early, strengthens too early, stays strong too long, inverse modoki, weak west-based northsouthern, or fading moderate el nina o.

You're going to hear nothing here but strong southern jet originating all the way from Saturn that does nothing but flood the US with mild interstellar Pacific air.
 
I did a search and found some interesting stats that Larry found on major SN/IP events in ATL. We have a much higher chance with a strong nino. However temps may not be as cold as a weak nino, timing would be easier for storms with an active southern jet and a -NAO. See below for ENSO events and frequency of major storms.

Since winter of 1876-7. ATL major SN/IP: 39 storms.

- 17 El Nino: 7 strong, 4 mod, 6 weak
- 12 Neutral (5 warm, 7 cold)
- 10 La Nina: 2 strong, 4 mod, 4 weak
 
GaStorm said:
I did a search and found some interesting stats that Larry found on major SN/IP events in ATL. We have a much higher chance with a strong nino. However temps may not be as cold as a weak nino, timing would be easier for storms with an active southern jet and a -NAO. See below for ENSO events and frequency of major storms.

Since winter of 1876-7. ATL major SN/IP: 39 storms.

- 17 El Nino: 7 strong, 4 mod, 6 weak
- 12 Neutral (5 warm, 7 cold)
- 10 La Nina: 2 strong, 4 mod, 4 weak
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RIP Larry.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've said it before, ENSO doesn't matter. There is no pattern in the modern climate period that delivers a cold and snowy winter for the SE anymore.

Personally, I feel like an El Nino will give us the best chance, particularly if there is blocking. But unfortunately, there always seems to be some bad configuration of El Nino that takes hold: Super Nino, strong east-based, fades too early, strengthens too early, stays strong too long, inverse modoki, weak west-based northsouthern, or fading moderate el nina o.

You're going to hear nothing here but strong southern jet originating all the way from Saturn that does nothing but flood the US with mild interstellar Pacific air.
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Post of the month! ? accurate
 
Rain Cold said:
I've said it before, ENSO doesn't matter. There is no pattern in the modern climate period that delivers a cold and snowy winter for the SE anymore.

Personally, I feel like an El Nino will give us the best chance, particularly if there is blocking. But unfortunately, there always seems to be some bad configuration of El Nino that takes hold: Super Nino, strong east-based, fades too early, strengthens too early, stays strong too long, inverse modoki, weak west-based northsouthern, or fading moderate el nina o.

You're going to hear nothing here but strong southern jet originating all the way from Saturn that does nothing but flood the US with mild interstellar Pacific air.
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I agree sir! It'll be wet this winter for sure which gives better than average chances at snow. But I will remind folks, I think it was January of this year, GSP had the wettest Jan on record and not a single snowflake to show for it. While our chances are higher for a storm with above average precip there are no guarantees anymore. I know it was a Nina and not Nino. But cutoff the cold supply with a raging Pac jet and all that moisture won't matter.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I agree sir! It'll be wet this winter for sure which gives better than average chances at snow. But I will remind folks, I think it was January of this year, GSP had the wettest Jan on record and not a single snowflake to show for it. While our chances are higher for a storm with above average precip there are no guarantees anymore. I know it was a Nina and not Nino. But cutoff the cold supply with a raging Pac jet and all that moisture won't matter.
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Im 100% in your camp you get a stoing Nino, espeacilly east based, get ready to play Golf all winter. Just be prepared for carts on path if you catch a dry day and still have rain gear on hand.
 
NCSNOW said:
Im 100% in your camp you get a stoing Nino, espeacilly east based, get ready to play Golf all winter. Just be prepared for carts on path if you catch a dry day and still have rain gear on hand.
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You’re right. There will definitely be some mild stretches, 1997-98 and 2015-16 were both strong east based El Niños and that still managed to produce a couple decent events for a lot of the southeast including the Carolinas. Now I’m not saying this is going to be a blockbuster winter in terms of cold and snow… I still think we end up above average temp wise for the winter. I think more active STJ that comes with an El Niño gives us a better chance of what periods of cold we do get to meet up with moisture. Another thing to watch is how much high latitude blocking sets up…it appears that we have cycled back into a period where strong blocking is setting up for long stretches during the winter again. Of course there will be times that all it will be blocking is Pacific air
 
I just got a hard copy ot The Old Farmers Almanac, the OG one, and much to my suprise, all 4 months of my winter Nov,Dec, Jan, Feb, are all below normal for me! I thought it was all out above normal for Nino up here!?
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks like a classic split flow pattern. Probably the best way to get snow here. Not sure why there's hand-wringing at this.
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I'd take a split flow over most everything except maybe a gom low coming up into ice cold air in situ...oh, wait, that's what you can get in a split flow with timing...so, yeah, split flow :)
 
Rain Cold said:
I've said it before, ENSO doesn't matter. There is no pattern in the modern climate period that delivers a cold and snowy winter for the SE anymore.

Personally, I feel like an El Nino will give us the best chance, particularly if there is blocking. But unfortunately, there always seems to be some bad configuration of El Nino that takes hold: Super Nino, strong east-based, fades too early, strengthens too early, stays strong too long, inverse modoki, weak west-based northsouthern, or fading moderate el nina o.

You're going to hear nothing here but strong southern jet originating all the way from Saturn that does nothing but flood the US with mild interstellar Pacific air.
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Don't forget flatulent penguins, and I think the super warm seas will throw monkey shines into a lot of forecasts.
 
Stevo24 said:
I would like announce that this year I will no longer be getting angry when I see the rain/snow line over my town. I will not wish cast it into existence. I have accepted my fate.
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C'mon now, don't lie to yourself. You know you'll be crushed just like the rest of us upstaters. ?
 
Stevo24 said:
I would like announce that this year I will no longer be getting angry when I see the rain/snow line over my town. I will not wish cast it into existence. I have accepted my fate.
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I’m gonna take the under on this one!
Currently 49 degrees
 
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